{"id":595913,"date":"2019-08-14T04:00:17","date_gmt":"2019-08-14T04:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/14\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-four-year-low-in-july-despite-subsidy-cuts\/"},"modified":"2019-08-14T04:00:17","modified_gmt":"2019-08-14T04:00:17","slug":"egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-four-year-low-in-july-despite-subsidy-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/14\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-four-year-low-in-july-despite-subsidy-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to four year low in July despite subsidy cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Headline inflation falls to four-year low in July despite subsidy cuts:<\/b> Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate dropped to 8.7% in July from 9.4% in June<\/a>, its lowest recording in four years, according toCapmas data released on Thursday<\/a>. To put that into perspective: headline inflation was at 13.5% in July 2018<\/a>, and at 33%in July 2017<\/a>. To say that July\u2019s inflation figures broke all expectations<\/a> would be the understatement of the year, particularly as the government raised fuel prices between 16% and 30% in July and new electricity subsidy cuts coming into effect. Core inflation fell to 5.9% in July from 6.4% in June, according to the central bank (pdf)<\/a>. Bloomberg<\/a> and Reuters<\/a> also have the story.<\/p>\n

The base effect is touted as the likely reason for the good fortune:<\/b> A favorable base effect and carry on effect from the previous month\u2019s single-digit inflation has been the most common reason given by analysts for the drop, including by Beltone Financial and Pharos Holding. \u201cIt seems that the energy price hikes may have had a smaller effect than many anticipated. But inflation in most other price categories eased too, suggesting that underlying price pressures are weakening,\u201d said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. \u201cIt seems government efforts to help the internal market limit food-price increases have been working,\u201d said Angus Blair, chairman of business and economic forecasting think-tank Signet.<\/p>\n

Will inflation remain in single digits for the rest of the year:<\/b> \u201cA favorable base effect and EGP strength will continue to advocate benign annual inflation readings till year end, keeping inflation rates within the CBE\u2019s target zone,\u201d Beltone said in a research note. \u201cWe note that domestic fuel prices will be subject to a review by the end of September 2019, where we believe prices will remain unchanged on the back of the strength in the EGP coupled with the low currently oil prices,\u201d they added. Pharos expects inflation to remain in the single digits all through 2019, ending the year with an average of 9.4%.<\/p>\n

All this is raising hope for an interest rate cut this month:<\/b> The drop in July\u2019s inflation has raised hopes that the CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will cut interest rates for the first time in six months, when it meets on Thursday, 22 August. \u201cIt\u2019s great news for the markets because it reinforces hopes of interest rate cuts in August. I think the central bank now has enough room to restart its monetary easing policy going forward,\u201d Naeem Holdings\u2019 Allen Sandeep tells Reuters. \u201cWe believe the CBE might cut rates in its upcoming meeting later this month, which will also largely depend on global and emerging market conditions,\u201d said HC\u2019s Sara Saada. Beltone Financial expects the CBE to cut interest rates by 100 bps this month.<\/p>\n

Some are more cautious about expecting a rate cut this month.<\/b> The easing in inflation \u201cincreases the chances of a rate cut\u201d this month, but the central bank might be cautious and wait for August figures before acting, said EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha. Pharos also sees the CBE holding off on a rate cut this month largely as a result of pressure felt by emerging markets this month.<\/p>\n

Reminder: Capex borrowing won\u2019t pick up until interest rates drop.<\/b> Our survey of nine companies<\/a> across several industries found that businesses are waiting for interest rates to fall within pre-float levels of 10-13% before ramping up capex borrowing. The central bank\u2019s overnight deposit and lending rates have remained unchanged at 15.75% and 16.75% since February.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Headline inflation falls to four-year low in July despite subsidy cuts: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate dropped to 8.7% in July from 9.4% in June, its lowest recording in four years, according toCapmas data released on Thursday. To put that into perspective: headline inflation was at 13.5% in July 2018, and at 33%in July 2017. 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Figures released by Capmas showed that monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% last month from 1.8%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1816.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":625639,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/08\/12\/inflation-cools-in-july-to-13-5-after-surge-in-june\/","url_meta":{"origin":595913,"position":1},"title":"Inflation cools in July to 13.5% after surge in June","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 August 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation cools in July to 13.5% after surge in June: Annual headline inflation cooled to 13.5% in July, down from a high of 14.4% in June, according to data released by the central bank on Thursday (pdf). Monthly headline inflation reached 2.5% in July, according to data from CAPMAS. Annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596913,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/11\/egypts-inflation-rate-in-single-digits-for-first-time-since-march-2016-cbe-still-expected-to-hold-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":595913,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation rate in single digits for first time since March 2016, CBE still expected to hold rates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation hits lowest levels in over three years, but mind the subsidy cuts in next month\u2019s reading: Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate dropped to 9.4% in June from 14.1% in May, the first time the reading has come in single digits since March 2016, the CBE said (pdf) in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1946.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":642354,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/08\/13\/inflation-rate-surges-to-33-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":595913,"position":3},"title":"Inflation rate surges to 33% in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 August 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation surges in July: The annual urban headline inflation rate increased to 33% in July from 29.8% in June with the m-o-m rate also rising to 3.2% from 0.8%, according to CAPMAS. The annual rate is the highest since the EGP float last November. Core inflation also shot up to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":624537,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/12\/headline-inflation-inches-up-again-in-august-after-brief-slowdown-in-july-monthly-core-inflation-eases-to-1-8\/","url_meta":{"origin":595913,"position":4},"title":"Headline inflation inches up again in August after brief slowdown in July, monthly core inflation eases to 1.8%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"**#5 Headline inflation inches up again in August after brief slowdown in July, monthly core inflation eases to 1.8%: Annual headline inflation climbed to 14.2% in August, up from 13.5% in July, data from the central bank showed on Monday (pdf). Annual core inflation \u2014 the CBE\u2019s preferred gauge, which\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599985,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/16\/could-we-see-8-inflation-this-year-renaissance-capital-thinks-so\/","url_meta":{"origin":595913,"position":5},"title":"Could we see 8% inflation this year? Renaissance Capital thinks so","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Could we see 8% inflation this year? Renaissance Capital thinks so. Following the \u201cstunning\u201d December inflation figures posted last week, where annual headline inflation dropped to 12.0%, some analysts see the trend continuing. Among them is star analyst Charlie Robertson at Renaissance Capital, who predicts that headline inflation will continue\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/1\/1887.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=595913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595913\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/595908"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/595914"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=595913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=595913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=595913"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=595913"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=595913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}