{"id":595769,"date":"2019-08-06T04:00:48","date_gmt":"2019-08-06T04:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/06\/what-were-tracking-on-6-august-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-08-06T04:00:48","modified_gmt":"2019-08-06T04:00:48","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-6-august-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/06\/what-were-tracking-on-6-august-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 6 August 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt has finally received the final USD 2 bn tranche of the IMF\u2019s USD 12 bn extended fund facility<\/b>, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Youm7<\/a>. The IMF\u2019s Executive Board agreed to disburse<\/a> the tranche in July after a staff-level agreement was reached in May<\/a>.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re still not totally sure what kind of post-program arrangement the government is pursuing with the IMF:<\/b> Maait mentioned in June<\/a> that the ministry is in talks with the fund over a possible two-year, non-loan program, but other than that we remain none the wiser about how the government intends to continue with economic reform.<\/p>\n

The CBE and Capmas are due to release July\u2019s inflation figures sometime this week.<\/b> Inflation unexpectedly plummeted<\/a> almost five percentage points to 9.4% in June \u2014 the first time Egypt has seen single digit inflation since March 2016.<\/p>\n

CI Capital sees inflation dipping below 10%:<\/b> An \u201cunprecedented oversupply\u201d of several products in the market, particularly fruits and vegetables, should keep July\u2019s inflation in check, CI Capital wrote in a research note yesterday. The most recent fuel price hike, \u201cwhich came in at 24% this year vs. 50% in 2018,\u201d coupled with the continued appreciation of the EGP and other factors, \u201ccontinue to give us high conviction of our forecast that headline inflation should come below the 10% mark for July which we expect to be released in the coming days.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lower inflation could give the CBE room for two rate cuts:<\/b> The investment bank sees the CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee cutting interest rates by 100 bps at each of its next two meetings, which it says are \u201cthe two safe windows\u201d for the CBE to begin its monetary easing \u201cand assess the impact of the cuts on the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Also coming up this week:<\/b> The CBE is due to release Egypt\u2019s net foreign reserve figures for July.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/a> China devalues the yuan, fires opening shot in currency war:<\/b> China launched a sharp devaluation of its currency yesterday after the central bank allowed it to trade below 7 against the USD for the first time in 11 years, Bloomberg reports<\/a>. The offshore CNH fell 1.9% to hit a record 7.08\/USD, while the onshore CNY sank 1.3% to reach 7.03\/USD \u2014 lows not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n

China insists it\u2019s playing fair: <\/b>The drop came after the People\u2019s Bank of China (PBOC) cut its daily reference rate below 6.9 for the first time in eight months. Bank governor Yi Gang insisted that it had not strategically devalued the currency. \u201cThis fluctuation is driven and determined by the market,\u201d CNBC quoted him as saying<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Analysts aren\u2019t buying it:<\/b> \u201cOn a scale of 1-10, it\u2019s an 11,\u201d Cowen analyst Chris Krueger said<\/a> of China\u2019s \u201cmassive\u201d retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Hong Kong-based analyst Andrew Collier framed the devaluation in militaristic terms. \u201cIf the currency does stay below 7 for another day, that is a sign that Beijing has \u2018weaponized\u2019 the RMB as a tool to improve exports during the trade war,\u201d he told the New York Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A one-two punch:<\/b> Chinese media reported<\/a> yesterday that domestic companies had halted purchases of US farm products. Beijing is also considering introducing further tariffs on US agricultural imports.<\/p>\n

All eyes on Trump\u2019s Twitter feed:<\/b> The question of whether this situation escalates into a full-blown currency war all depends on Trump\u2019s reaction. And reading into a bullish late-afternoon Tweetstorm<\/a> yesterday, a USD intervention may well be an option on the table. \u201cChina has always used currency manipulation to steal our businesses and factories, hurt our jobs, depress our workers\u2019 wages and harm our farmers\u2019 prices. Not anymore!\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a sea of red in the global markets:<\/b> Markets once again suffered heavy losses yesterday after the RMB devaluation increased fears of a rapidly escalating trade conflict. US equities lost more than USD 700 bn, as the S&P 500 suffered its worst day of trading in 2019. Investors piled into safe haven assets, causing the yield on US 10-year Treasuries to fall 13 bps to 1.714% and 10-year German bund yields to plumb new depths of -0.52%. Asian indices were all heavily in the red early this morning. (Bloomberg<\/a> | AP<\/a>)<\/p>\n

The Wall Street Journal is probably regretting publishing <\/b>this<\/b><\/a>:<\/b> Emerging markets saw the biggest daily losses of 2019 on Friday as investors fled fixed-income assets and equities in the face of rising trade tensions. Data from the Institute of International Finance seen by Reuters<\/a> shows that USD 2.33 bn was pulled from EM assets as investors reacted to Trump\u2019s China tariff announcement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

And Citi is telling people to get out of EMs:<\/b> Citi\u2019s head of CEEMEA strategy, Luis Costa, is recommending that investors short high-yielding EM assets in response to the RMB devaluation, Reuters says<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n

Abu Dhabi Financial Group and Dubai-listed Shuaa Capital have finalized their merger<\/b> after receiving the necessary regulatory approvals, according to a joint statement (pdf)<\/a>. The merger created an entity with some USD 12.8 bn in combined assets under management, and saw the \u201cadmission of 1.47 bn new shares on the Dubai Financial Market in favour of ADFG\u2019s parent company and strategic investor in Shuaa, Abu Dhabi Capital Management LLC.\u201d<\/p>\n

HSBC ousts CEO, announces 4,000 job cuts:<\/b> HSBC\u2019s board has fired CEO John Flint after just 18 months in the job over concerns that cost-cutting strategies were not being implemented quickly enough. The board is keen to reduce its salary costs in response to the slowing global economy, but reportedly became frustrated with the lack of action during Flint\u2019s tenure. The bank immediately announced plans to cut more than 4,000 jobs \u2014 including many senior positions \u2014 following his dismissal. The FT<\/a> and Bloomberg<\/a> have more.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Strikes, protests paralyse Hong Kong:<\/b> Protesters brought much of Hong Kong to a standstill yesterday after calls for a general strike led to the cancellation of more than 200 flights and the suspension of train services. Riot police fought pitched battles with demonstrators, who blocked roads and attempted to set a police station on fire. Embattled Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said that the territory was \u201con the verge of a very dangerous situation.\u201d Protests have been ongoing since 9 June after the government proposed legislation that would have enabled citizens to be extradited to China to face trial. The BBC has more<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The US is reeling from the two mass shootings in El Paso and Ohio<\/b>, which were the 21st and 22nd such shootings this year. The shootings killed a total of 29 and injured about 50 people, the AP reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt has finally received the final USD 2 bn tranche of the IMF\u2019s USD 12 bn extended fund facility, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Youm7. The IMF\u2019s Executive Board agreed to disburse the tranche in July after a staff-level agreement was reached in May. We\u2019re still not totally sure what kind […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,2403,4905,3605,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-595769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-global-economy","tag-national-cancer-institute","tag-us-china-trade-war","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a0df82a8-a1aa-4a58-adbe-9abd54a2b2bd","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[595767],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat we\u2019re tracking on 6 August 2019 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/06\/what-were-tracking-on-6-august-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 6 August 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt has finally received the final USD 2 bn tranche of the IMF\u2019s USD 12 bn extended fund facility, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Youm7. 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The ministry is currently putting together a list of all private accounts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":628033,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/24\/what-were-tracking-this-week-11\/","url_meta":{"origin":595769,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 June 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, 28 June to decide on interest rates. The IMF\u2019s executive board will meet on 29 June to decide on the fourth USD 2 bn tranche of Egypt\u2019s USD 12 bn extended fund facility. The disbursement, which is expected to arrive in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":628079,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/25\/what-were-tracking-this-week-12\/","url_meta":{"origin":595769,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"A shuffle of governors could be announced by the end of this week, Al Shorouk reports, adding that Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has given a preliminary outline of the shuffle to President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Local Development Minister Mahmoud Shaarawy. The shuffle could include as many as 15 of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":628181,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/27\/what-were-tracking-this-week-14\/","url_meta":{"origin":595769,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 June 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"GAFI to break ground on Nuweiba freezone this Saturday: The General Authority for Freezones and Investment (GAFI) expects to break ground on the Nuweiba freezone on Saturday, Red Sea Ports Authority spokesman Malaak Youssef said. The 1 mn sqm zone is expected to see as much as USD 40 mn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":627342,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/30\/fifth-imf-loan-tranche-to-be-disbursed-in-early-2019-maait\/","url_meta":{"origin":595769,"position":4},"title":"Fifth IMF loan tranche to be disbursed in early 2019 -Maait","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 July 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is expected to receive the fifth tranche of its USD 12 bn extended fund facility from the IMF in early 2019, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Al Mal yesterday. An IMF delegation is scheduled to visit in November to conduct a fourth review of the economic reform agenda ahead\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562169,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/10\/its-report-card-season\/","url_meta":{"origin":595769,"position":5},"title":"It\u2019s report card season","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF is expected to wrap its second and final review of its year-long USD 5.2bn standby loan program by the end of June, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Bloomberg Asharq. A positive review would unlock the final USD 1.6 bn tranche; Egypt received an initial USD 2 bn in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/93.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=595769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595769\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/595767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=595769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=595769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=595769"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=595769"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=595769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}