{"id":595501,"date":"2019-09-29T04:18:05","date_gmt":"2019-09-29T04:18:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/ems-need-not-worry-too-much-about-slower-world-growth-analyst-says\/"},"modified":"2019-09-29T04:18:05","modified_gmt":"2019-09-29T04:18:05","slug":"ems-need-not-worry-too-much-about-slower-world-growth-analyst-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/ems-need-not-worry-too-much-about-slower-world-growth-analyst-says\/","title":{"rendered":"EMs need not worry too much about slower world growth, analyst says"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Are EMs in a better position than developed markets to withstand slower world growth?<\/b> Positive real interest rates and smaller fiscal deficits are providing emerging market policymakers a range of policy tools with which to combat the global economic slowdown, argues the Financial Times (paywall)<\/a>. In a time where developed countries are running out of monetary policy tools to combat the slowdown, many EMs have more flexibility. \u201cLots of people are talking about whether [further] monetary policy [easing] is still an option for most developed markets and there is a lot of discussion about whether these countries should consider fiscal policy [instead],\u201d Patrick Zweifel, chief economist at Pictet Asset Management, said. \u201cThis is a problem that emerging markets do not have, so they have much more room to counter the slowdown.\u201d<\/p>\n

What the optimist is saying: <\/b>Emerging markets, unlike their developed counterparts, are not grappling with already-low, and often negative, real and nominal interest rates and large fiscal deficits, argues Zweifel. His firm\u2019s analysis of 19 major EMs (not including Egypt) showed that the countries sometimes had both positive real interest rates and almost negligible fiscal deficits \u2014 giving them the ability to use both monetary loosening and fiscal stimuli \u2014 a privilege far less common among developed economies. Most of those countries, excluding the infamous examples of Turkey and Argentina, can cut rates without it taking a heavy toll on their currencies. The 19 economies studied are also possess average budget deficits of 1.9% of GDP, \u201cthe joint-lowest level since 2009.\u201d<\/p>\n

The counterpoint: <\/b>Senior EM strategist at NN Investment Partners, Maarten-Jan Bakkum, meanwhile, argues that \u201cmost developing countries could only ease monetary policy if cross-border financial flows were strong.\u201d This is pretty much dictated by future US Fed interest rate decisions, not by internal factors. \u201c[EM] central banks have been cutting rates since the beginning of this year mainly because of Fed expectations moving towards more easing,\u201d he said. \u201cThat theme can go further but it\u2019s not a given and it\u2019s not something determined endogenously in EMs, it\u2019s exogenous.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Are EMs in a better position than developed markets to withstand slower world growth? Positive real interest rates and smaller fiscal deficits are providing emerging market policymakers a range of policy tools with which to combat the global economic slowdown, argues the Financial Times (paywall). 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Together, governments plugged in an amount equal to 2.5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/189.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":551678,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/06\/enterprise-explains-stagflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":595501,"position":1},"title":"Enterprise Explains: Stagflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"What is stagflation, and what could it look like in the 2020s? Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated the slowdown in global economic recovery, as well as disruptions in the global supply chain, both of which the world has already been coping with since the onset of the covid-19 pandemic.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/364.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565050,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/sp-says-ems-have-a-long-way-to-go-to-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":595501,"position":2},"title":"S&P says EMs have a long way to go to recovery","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Governments in the emerging world have few bullets left in the policy chamber to fight the pandemic, making a speedy vaccine rollout and a swift recovery all the more important, S&P Global has said in its 2021 Global Outlook. \u201cMost EMs have limited flexibility to provide additional fiscal or monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/476.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568808,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/04\/trade-growth-between-emerging-economies-is-flatlining\/","url_meta":{"origin":595501,"position":3},"title":"Trade growth between emerging economies is flatlining","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Trade growth between emerging economies is flatlining: Expectations that sluggish growth in developed economies would stimulate intra-EM trade look to have been proven wrong as trade between emerging economies continues to flatline, Steve Johnson writes in the Financial Times. Although EM exports heading to other developing countries did leap from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/57.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594326,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/usd-debt-exposure-an-achilles-heel-for-ems-right-now-fitch-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":595501,"position":4},"title":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says: Of all the macro issues emerging markets have to worry about, the biggest concern for them at the current moment is their exposure to USD-denominated external debt as the USD strengthens, Fitch Solutions\u2019 Michael Larson said in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2055.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575512,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/18\/foreign-debt-is-leaving-emerging-markets-more-vulnerable-to-shocks-than-ever-before\/","url_meta":{"origin":595501,"position":5},"title":"Foreign debt is leaving emerging markets more vulnerable to shocks than ever before","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreign debt is leaving emerging markets more vulnerable to shocks than ever before: Widening private debt, rapid monetary expansion and low-cost lending have left emerging markets with a much larger challenge in piecing together an economic recovery from covid-19 than they did during the global financial crisis, according to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/182.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=595501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595501\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/595485"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/595502"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=595501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=595501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=595501"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=595501"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=595501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}