{"id":595222,"date":"2019-09-19T04:12:34","date_gmt":"2019-09-19T04:12:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/19\/one-way-egypt-can-get-lower-interest-rates-have-fewer-babies\/"},"modified":"2019-09-19T04:12:34","modified_gmt":"2019-09-19T04:12:34","slug":"one-way-egypt-can-get-lower-interest-rates-have-fewer-babies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/19\/one-way-egypt-can-get-lower-interest-rates-have-fewer-babies\/","title":{"rendered":"One way Egypt can get lower interest rates? Have fewer babies"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> One way Egypt can get lower interest rates? Have fewer babies, suggests RenCap\u2019s Charlie Robertson:<\/b> It appears that there\u2019s a correlation between Egypt\u2019s high interest rates and its 100 mn population, according to analysis posed by Charles Robertson, chief economist at emerging markets-focused investment bank Renaissance Capital. Analysts at the bank have found a statistical relationship between fertility rates and bank deposits-to-GDP \u2014 a 53% correlation and one that has been holding up since the 1990s, Robertson tells the Financial Times (paywall)<\/a>. Higher deposit-to-GDP ratios leads to lower borrowing costs on the whole. Data appears to support this, as countries with deposit-to-GDP ratios of at least 60% in 2013 have had average one-year real interest rates of 0.9% between 2014 and 2018, compared with 2.1% for countries with deposit-to-GDP ratios of between 20-30%. He also suggests that states with higher deposit-to-GDP ratios have higher levels of investment. <\/b><\/p>\n

The problem with high-population emerging markets is a tendency to not save.<\/b> \u201cPeople with lots of kids don\u2019t save money,\u201d he says. This is not only because they have more dependents to support and therefore less ability to save, but also because people with fewer children need to save for retirement because they are less able to rely on their offspring to provide for them in their dotage, he added.<\/p>\n

Where does that leave us? With a very positive outlook going forward (if fertility rates decline):<\/b> RenCap\u2019s data suggests Egypt, alongside Ghana, Kenya and Pakistan, could see bank deposits double to at least 60% of GDP over the next 20 years. This is assuming that fertility rates continue to fall by about 0.4% a decade, as has happened in the past 10 years, potentially leading to a more than halving of real interest rates. \u201cEgypt already looks well placed to fund its own investment, when lower government borrowing stops crowding out the private sector.\u201d Robertson sees this trend happening for Morocco, Jordan and Vietnam as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One way Egypt can get lower interest rates? Have fewer babies, suggests RenCap\u2019s Charlie Robertson: It appears that there\u2019s a correlation between Egypt\u2019s high interest rates and its 100 mn population, according to analysis posed by Charles Robertson, chief economist at emerging markets-focused investment bank Renaissance Capital. Analysts at the bank have found a statistical […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":595223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[104,115,72,348,349,125,359,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-595222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-interest-rates","tag-investment-watch","tag-population-growth","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b5bf6d76-c58a-437f-a63c-6edfaf069213","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"640d15ad-4c2a-4862-8b43-5701bc6ebf3d","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1162.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[595215],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nOne way Egypt can get lower interest rates? Have fewer babies - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/19\/one-way-egypt-can-get-lower-interest-rates-have-fewer-babies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"One way Egypt can get lower interest rates? Have fewer babies\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"One way Egypt can get lower interest rates? Have fewer babies, suggests RenCap\u2019s Charlie Robertson: It appears that there\u2019s a correlation between Egypt\u2019s high interest rates and its 100 mn population, according to analysis posed by Charles Robertson, chief economist at emerging markets-focused investment bank Renaissance Capital. 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RenCap\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/238.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573093,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/20\/egypts-economy-is-on-track-to-grow-this-fiscal-year-but-needs-to-keep-an-eye-on-egp-flexibility-industrial-investment-rencap\/","url_meta":{"origin":595222,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy is on track to grow this fiscal year, but needs to keep an eye on EGP flexibility + industrial investment \u2013RenCap","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- Egypt\u2019s economy is on track to grow this fiscal year, but needs to keep an eye on EGP flexibility + industrial investment \u2013RenCap: Renaissance Capital is maintaining its expectations that Egypt will manage to eke out growth this fiscal year at around the same rate as FY2019-2020, thanks partly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/156.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599519,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/02\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-at-final-mpc-meeting-of-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":595222,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged at final MPC meeting of 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, citing global monetary policy tightening, trade wars and volatility in the oil market. The bank\u2019s monetary policy committee left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, and also left on hold its main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594319,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/egypt-to-be-the-regions-star-performer-in-2020-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":595222,"position":3},"title":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics: Egypt will be the MENA region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 as the central bank continues to cut interest rates and the government loosens fiscal policy, William Jackson, chief EM economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Thursday. GDP will grow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/660.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602727,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/04\/04\/egypt-is-the-most-attractive-reform-story-among-eemea-countries-renaissance-capital\/","url_meta":{"origin":595222,"position":4},"title":"Egypt is the \u201cmost attractive reform story\u201d among EEMEA countries: Renaissance Capital","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- Egypt is the \u201cmost attractive reform story\u201d among EEMEA countries- Renaissance Capital: Improving macroeconomic indicators and stabilizing public finances mean that Egypt is now the \u201cmost attractive reform story\u201d among EEMEA countries, Charlie Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, tells Enterprise. Rising economic growth, a shrinking budget deficit,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/695.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":621735,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/18\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":595222,"position":5},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The central bank of Egypt (CBE) kept key interest rates on hold on Thursday, citing higher-than-expected headline inflation rates in September and October. The bank\u2019s monetary policy committee left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, and also left on hold its main operation and discount\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595222","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=595222"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595222\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/595215"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/595223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=595222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=595222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=595222"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=595222"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=595222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}