{"id":595170,"date":"2019-09-18T03:50:50","date_gmt":"2019-09-18T03:50:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/18\/what-were-tracking-on-18-september\/"},"modified":"2019-09-18T03:50:50","modified_gmt":"2019-09-18T03:50:50","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-18-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/18\/what-were-tracking-on-18-september\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 18 September"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Today we find out if the US Federal Reserve will decide to give markets the rate cut it so desperately needs.<\/b> An announcement will come in the wee hours of Thursday morning CLT, so look for the results in Thursday morning\u2019s issue. The decision comes during a very tough week for markets following heightened tensions in Saudi Arabia, when 5% of the global oil supply was temporarily taken out of commission following a Houthi attack. The resulting spike in oil prices and the prospect of rising inflation is adding confidence to those assuming the Fed will cut rates, according to CNBC<\/a>. That said, markets are pricing a 34% chance that the Fed will stay put on rates.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

But not all of the Fed sees eye to eye on rate cuts.<\/b> Reuters draws a very interesting picture<\/a> of where Fed board members stand now versus where they stood when the Fed first started cutting rates in July. We see a much more divided Fed with more people on the fence and fewer board members seeing the need for a cut.<\/p>\n

EMs want it: <\/b>As we noted yesterday<\/a>, the appetite for monetary easing has been prevalent across emerging markets. Bank of America expects Russia, Brazil, China and the Czech Republic, will likely cut rates further this year.<\/p>\n

This is all making it likely that the central bank will move to cut rates when its Monetary Policy Committee meets next Thursday, 26 September. <\/b>The primary driver given by analysts we\u2019ve been speaking with is the low inflation. \u201cWe see inflationary pressures largely subsiding following the July subsidy cuts,\u201d said HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss. \u201cYearly inflation dropped below 9% y-o-y, well within the CBE target of 9% (\u00b1 3%) in 4Q20, providing room for the CBE to proceed with monetary easing to stimulate economic growth and stock market activity,\u201d she added. HC expects the CBE to cut rates by 100 bps.<\/p>\n

One thing we haven\u2019t seen discussion on is the impact of higher global oil prices on the CBE\u2019s inflation targets.<\/b> Brent crude crossed the USD 70\/bbl market earlier this week following the attack on the Aramco facility, and reached a high of USD 68\/bbl yesterday.<\/p>\n

\n

Conference season continues<\/b>, with tech summits and competitions gaining the most traction in the local press.<\/p>\n

Hala El Gohary, CEO of ITIDA, inaugurated the <\/b>E-commerce Summit<\/b><\/a>, focusing her opening speech on the growth of the e-commerce market in Egypt, and the country\u2019s emergence as a regional leader in the field, according to a press release<\/a>. She made note of the authority\u2019s initiatives to stimulate the e-commerce sector such as an additional 5% subsidy for outsourcing firms.<\/p>\n

On the competition side of things, cybersecurity solutions firm Trend Micro held the <\/b>Egypt National Cybersecurity Competition<\/b><\/a> (pdf). <\/b>Three Egyptian teams were selected for the regional competition, which will be held in Cairo this month, before a winner goes off to compete in the global challenge in Tokyo in November.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere, this year\u2019s <\/b>RiseUp Summit<\/b><\/a> (which runs from 5-7 December) <\/b>features the \u201c<\/b>Pitch by the Pyramids<\/b><\/a>\u201d competition, a multi-stage regional startup pitch contest involving countries from around the MENA region with the grand final event at the Great Pyramids of Giza. Local and international media heavyweights, renowned investors, and industry leaders will be present to see what the startups have to offer. More details on the competition\u2019s format and the prizes offered are still to be announced.<\/p>\n

Coming up on the events calendar are:<\/p>\n