{"id":595131,"date":"2019-09-17T03:56:45","date_gmt":"2019-09-17T03:56:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/17\/escalation-in-recent-saudi-crisis-drives-oil-prices-up\/"},"modified":"2019-09-17T03:56:45","modified_gmt":"2019-09-17T03:56:45","slug":"escalation-in-recent-saudi-crisis-drives-oil-prices-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/17\/escalation-in-recent-saudi-crisis-drives-oil-prices-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Escalation in recent Saudi crisis drives oil prices up"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> US President Donald Trump has accused Iran of Saturday\u2019s attacks on Saudi Arabia\u2019s Abqaiq oil facility<\/b>, which have disrupted production of 5.7 mn barrels of oil a day, or roughly 5% of global supply. Accusing Iran of lyingin a tweet<\/a>, he reiterated his support for Saudi Arabia<\/a>, and hinted that he is ready to escalate<\/a> a conflict if evidence emerges to verify that Iran was behind the attack \u2014 an accusation first directly leveled<\/a> by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.<\/p>\n

Saudi Aramco officials, meanwhile, <\/b>are less optimistic<\/b><\/a> about the rapid resumption of full oil production than they were on Sunday.<\/b> Having initially said operations would resume within days, current estimates suggest it may be weeks or even months before the plant is operating at full production capacity again. While Aramco is using offshore oil fields to replace some of its lost production, and supplying customers using stockpiles, analysts are highlighting the infrastructure\u2019s vulnerability to attack, driving market jitters.<\/p>\n

In response to the turmoil, crude oil prices made their biggest jump on record<\/b>, initially soaring by as much as 20% to almost USD 72\/bbl when the market opened on Monday, the Financial Times reports<\/a>. While they later decreased to around USD 66\/bbl, this is still a gain of almost 11% on the day,which puts them on track<\/a> for their biggest one-day percentage gains since 2016. \u201cWe have never seen a supply disruption and price response like this in the oil market,\u201d says a Credit Suisse energy analyst<\/a>. \u201cPolitical-risk premiums are now back on the oil-market agenda.\u201d<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t good for us, as Egypt has budgeted a benchmark price of USD 68\/bbl. <\/b>Even the fuel hedging contracts the government has already signed with international banks have reportedly been set<\/a> at USD 64-68 per bbl. A Bloomberg analysis last year<\/a>showed that every USD 1 increase above a benchmark price used by the state in annual budgeting added EGP 4 bn (USD 222 mn) to annual spending.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, Saudi Aramco is moving forward with plans for its IPO<\/b>,and has given no indication that it will delay its timeline, Bloomberg reports<\/a>. However, bankers and analysts are reportedly casting doubt on the odds of the IPO happening on schedule, with some citing the climate of heightened risk as a reason for investor caution, others saying the attack is likely to reduce Aramco\u2019s valuation \u2014 which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has put at over USD 2 tn \u2014 and still others raising the specter of other potential attacks, which they say would make it virtually impossible for the IPO to proceed. The rate at which Aramco can resume full production is the crucial determinant for whether the IPO will move forward on schedule, <\/b>experts say.<\/p>\n

Lack of confidence is the prevailing sentiment in the foreign press<\/b>, with an FT opinion piece<\/a> that decries Saudi Arabia as \u201cill-equipped\u201d to handle the disruption, having just dismissed Khalid Al Faleh<\/a> as energy minister and Saudi Aramco chairman, seeming to capture the overall mood.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US President Donald Trump has accused Iran of Saturday\u2019s attacks on Saudi Arabia\u2019s Abqaiq oil facility, which have disrupted production of 5.7 mn barrels of oil a day, or roughly 5% of global supply. Accusing Iran of lyingin a tweet, he reiterated his support for Saudi Arabia, and hinted that he is ready to escalate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":595132,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[394,984,93,72,78,716,219,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-595131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-aramco","tag-donald-trump","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-ipo-watch","tag-iran","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"db1d6ad3-89be-4edd-b7a8-69ca67dfc2fb","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"67e8f195-e6df-4f4f-9fd4-9133f27d3228","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1740.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[595113],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEscalation in recent Saudi crisis drives oil prices up - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/17\/escalation-in-recent-saudi-crisis-drives-oil-prices-up\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Escalation in recent Saudi crisis drives oil prices up\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US President Donald Trump has accused Iran of Saturday\u2019s attacks on Saudi Arabia\u2019s Abqaiq oil facility, which have disrupted production of 5.7 mn barrels of oil a day, or roughly 5% of global supply. 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The companies have been corresponding with Aramco over the past weeks to express interest in a direct sale of a stake to a consortium made up of both\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":628038,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/24\/opec-and-allies-agree-to-pump-additional-c-1-mn-bpd-of-oil-as-of-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":595131,"position":4},"title":"OPEC and allies agree to pump additional c. 1 mn bpd of oil as of July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 June 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s bid to tame its subsidy spending got a shot in the arm over the weekend after OPEC and other oil producers agreed to increase output starting next month, although the meeting in Vienna stopped short of outlining clear targets, Reuters reports. OPEC and other major producers said in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/6\/1596.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":623183,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/10\/24\/saudi-lands-usd-50-bn-in-fresh-investment-at-conference-despite-boycott-after-khashoggi-murder\/","url_meta":{"origin":595131,"position":5},"title":"Saudi lands USD 50 bn in fresh investment at conference despite boycott after Khashoggi murder","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Saudi lands USD 50 bn worth of new projects at investment conference despite boycott: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman secured USD 50 bn worth of new investment yesterday on the opening day of his \u2018Davos in the Desert\u2019 conference, according to Reuters. Those include 25 new oil and gas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=595131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595131\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/595113"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/595132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=595131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=595131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=595131"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=595131"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=595131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}