{"id":594912,"date":"2019-09-11T04:03:49","date_gmt":"2019-09-11T04:03:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/"},"modified":"2019-09-11T04:03:49","modified_gmt":"2019-09-11T04:03:49","slug":"egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year low in August, confounding expectations:<\/b> Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate fell to 7.5% in August from 8.7% in July, a low not seen January 2013, official data showed yesterday. <a href=\"http:\/\/enterprise.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%81%D9%8A-8-2019.pdf\">Figures released by Capmas<\/a> showed that monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% last month from 1.8% in July, driven in part by a slowdown in fruit and vegetable prices. <a href=\"http:\/\/enterprise.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/CPI_press-release_August-2019.pdf\">Central bank data<\/a>, meanwhile, showed that annual core inflation fell to 4.9% in August from 5.9% in July. On a monthly basis, core prices saw mild deflation, falling to -0.4% compared to 0.1% growth in July. Inflation was widely expected to rise in the summer months after the government <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/07\/07\/government-raises-fuel-prices-phasing-out-remaining-fuel-subsidies\/\">raised fuel prices<\/a> by between 16-30% in July. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-09-10\/lowest-egypt-inflation-in-6-years-opens-door-for-more-rate-cuts?srnd=premium-middle-east\">Bloomberg<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/af.reuters.com\/article\/egyptNews\/idAFAPN04YVIQ\">Reuters<\/a> also have the story.<\/p>\n<p><b>Headline vs. core:<\/b> Headline inflation accounts for a basket of goods and services in an economy while core inflation removes volatile products such as food and fuel.<\/p>\n<p><b>A favorable base effect is being touted by analysts to explain the surprising figures:<\/b> Esraa Ahmed, senior economist at Shuaa Securities, wrote in a note that the drop is \u201chighly attributed\u201d to the favorable base effect, as well as slowing fruit and vegetable price inflation. Jean-Michel Saliba, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also said the positive figures were due to the base effect. Inflation in August 2018 <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2018\/09\/12\/headline-inflation-inches-up-again-in-august-after-brief-slowdown-in-july-monthly-core-inflation-eases-to-1-8\/\">came in at 14.2%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><b>Analysts across the board had predicted a rise in inflation following fuel subsidy cuts:<\/b> Inflation over the past two months has defied analyst expectations, who predicted that the effects of lifting fuel and electricity subsidies would push figures higher into double digits. Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/07\/07\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-key-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/\">predicted in July<\/a> an average inflation rate of 13.8% in the months following the subsidy cuts, while Pharos <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/06\/11\/annual-inflation-increases-to-14-1-in-may\/\">forecast in May<\/a> 14% inflation through the summer months.<\/p>\n<p><b>All of this puts us odds-on for a rate cut this month:<\/b> Capital Economics is forecasting the central bank to cut rates for the second consecutive month, suggesting in a note yesterday that the Monetary Policy Committee would cut the overnight deposit rate by 50 bps to 13.75% when it meets on 26 September. \u201cAugust\u2019s inflation, coupled with shift towards looser monetary policy elsewhere, means that the MPC won\u2019t hesitate in lowering interest rates again at this month\u2019s meeting,\u201d it wrote in a note. Radwa El Swaify, head of research at Pharos Securities, told us she expects the MPC to be more aggressive. She forecasts a 100-150 bps rate cut, putting the overnight deposit rate at either 13.25% or 12.75%.<\/p>\n<p><b>Egypt\u2019s rate cuts in 2019 and 2020 could be the second-deepest in emerging markets after Turkey<\/b>, Bloomberg also cited BNP Paribas as saying. The CBE <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/08\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-for-the-first-time-since-february\/\">last month cut rates<\/a> by 150 bps, bringing the overnight deposit and lending rates to 14.25% and 15.25% respectively. The main operation and deposit rates were both cut to 14.75%.<\/p>\n<p><b>Thinking long-term:<\/b> Pharos sees little chance of inflation rising back into double digits this year, and predicts an average inflation rate of 9.1% for the rest of 2019 and 9.2% for the remainder of the current fiscal year. Capital Economics sees the central bank pushing ahead with an extended easing cycle, bringing interest rates down to 9.75% by the end of 2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year low in August, confounding expectations: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate fell to 7.5% in August from 8.7% in July, a low not seen January 2013, official data showed yesterday. Figures released by Capmas showed that monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% last month from 1.8% in July, driven in part [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":594913,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[1433,271,72,182,349,1116,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-594912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-capital-economics","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-shuaa-securities","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c2a5a8ee-48e9-4cc7-b3e4-23ea68978e51","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1816.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[594907],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year low in August, confounding expectations: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate fell to 7.5% in August from 8.7% in July, a low not seen January 2013, official data showed yesterday. Figures released by Capmas showed that monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% last month from 1.8% in July, driven in part [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-09-11T04:03:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1816.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-11T04:03:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/\"},\"wordCount\":525,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1816.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"Capital Economics\",\"Central Bank of Egypt\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"inflation\",\"interest rates\",\"Shuaa Securities\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/\",\"name\":\"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August - 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Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":624537,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/12\/headline-inflation-inches-up-again-in-august-after-brief-slowdown-in-july-monthly-core-inflation-eases-to-1-8\/","url_meta":{"origin":594912,"position":1},"title":"Headline inflation inches up again in August after brief slowdown in July, monthly core inflation eases to 1.8%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"**#5 Headline inflation inches up again in August after brief slowdown in July, monthly core inflation eases to 1.8%: Annual headline inflation climbed to 14.2% in August, up from 13.5% in July, data from the central bank showed on Monday (pdf). Annual core inflation \u2014 the CBE\u2019s preferred gauge, which\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":638196,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/08\/11\/inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-since-december-2022-recording-of-25-7-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":594912,"position":2},"title":"Inflation falls to lowest level since December 2022, recording of 25.7% in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Monthly inflation fell to 0.4% in July from 1.6% the month before.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/8\/826.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575276,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/11\/egypt-inflation-edges-up-slightly-in-september-but-is-still-near-record-low\/","url_meta":{"origin":594912,"position":3},"title":"Egypt: Inflation edges up slightly in September but is still near record low","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation edges up slightly in September \u2014 but is still near record low: Egypt\u2019s annual urban inflation accelerated to 3.7% in September, up marginally from 3.4% in August \u2014 the lowest level since 2005, according to calculations made from state statistics agency Capmas figures (pdf). Inflation has continued to ease\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/88.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573589,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/11\/egypts-inflation-decelerated-in-july-to-4-2-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":594912,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation decelerated in July to 4.2%, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation decelerated to 4.2% in July, down from an uptick to 5.6% in June, according to central bank figures (pdf). The central bank attributed the decline to a favorable base effect. Monthly headline urban figures remained restrained at 0.4% in July, compared to 1.8% during the same month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/75.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":622759,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/10\/11\/monthly-annual-headline-inflation-accelerate-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":594912,"position":5},"title":"Monthly, annual headline inflation accelerate in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"** #3 Monthly, annual headline inflation accelerate in September: Annual headline inflation jumped to 16.0% in September, up from 14.2% in August, data from the central bank showed on Wednesday (pdf). Monthly headline inflation also rose last month, coming in at 2.5% against 1.8% the previous month. Annual core inflation,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/10\/1290.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=594912"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594912\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/594907"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/594913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=594912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=594912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=594912"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=594912"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=594912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}