{"id":594602,"date":"2019-09-02T03:51:57","date_gmt":"2019-09-02T03:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/02\/egypts-inverted-yield-curve\/"},"modified":"2019-09-02T03:51:57","modified_gmt":"2019-09-02T03:51:57","slug":"egypts-inverted-yield-curve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/02\/egypts-inverted-yield-curve\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s inverted yield curve"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt\u2019s inverted yield curve:<\/b> The financial press last month was awash with commentary on the brief inversions of the 2-year 10-year US treasury yield curve. Here in Egypt, the yield curve has been inverted since the EGP float in November 2016. But in contrast to the prophecies of doom we\u2019ve come to expect in the US, nobody in Egypt so much as bats an eyelid at the fact that the yield on Egyptian 10-year treasuries is currently almost 140 bps below that on 2-years. We could put this down to normalization, but in the immediate aftermath of the currency float Bloomberg was describing the inversion<\/a> as a \u201cwelcome signal\u201d from the bond market that \u201cvindicates Egypt\u2019s decision\u201d to devalue the EGP.<\/p>\n

An inverted yield curve isn\u2019t necessarily a bad thing:<\/b> Shuaa Securities\u2019 Esraa Ahmed wrote yesterday that the inverted curve \u201cconveys a positive perception\u201d among bond traders of the inflationary trend and the central bank\u2019s accommodative monetary policy. It reflects market expectations for continued easing, a path that signifies the central bank\u2019s growing confidence in the economy.<\/p>\n

Yields are on a downward trend:<\/b> Rates have fallen more than 300 bps across the board since the beginning of the year as foreign investors piled into Egyptian debt. Unexpectedly low inflation readings and the appreciating EGP have also contributed to the strong downward pressure on yields, Ahmed says.<\/p>\n

But the curve is unlikely to flatten anytime soon:<\/b> It may be a while before yields on long-term bonds normalize and rise above short-term treasuries. The curve has actually steepened since the CBE cut rates last month: In the first auctions after the 150 bps rate cut<\/a>, yields on 10-year bonds fell further than rates on short-term t-bills. The government is taking action to try to hold down short-term yields by limiting its t-bill issuances and intends to shift its focus<\/a> towards bonds with longer maturities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt\u2019s inverted yield curve: The financial press last month was awash with commentary on the brief inversions of the 2-year 10-year US treasury yield curve. Here in Egypt, the yield curve has been inverted since the EGP float in November 2016. But in contrast to the prophecies of doom we\u2019ve come to expect in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":594603,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[82,271,72,1116,1510,1041],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-594602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-bonds","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-shuaa-securities","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-treasuries","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5cb280e7-787e-46ca-97a0-cd2286455855","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1869.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[594586],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s inverted yield curve - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/02\/egypts-inverted-yield-curve\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s inverted yield curve\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s inverted yield curve: The financial press last month was awash with commentary on the brief inversions of the 2-year 10-year US treasury yield curve. Here in Egypt, the yield curve has been inverted since the EGP float in November 2016. 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It\u2019s actually \u201ca less than 50-50 proposition,\u201d Peter Coy writes for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth reading"","block_context":{"text":"Worth reading","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-reading\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/743.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602428,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/27\/why-the-inverted-us-yield-curve-could-spell-trouble-for-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":594602,"position":2},"title":"Why the inverted US yield curve could spell trouble for emerging markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Why the inverted US yield curve could spell trouble for emerging markets: An inverted US yield curve could be the harbinger of hard times for emerging markets, Shuli Ren writes for Bloomberg. 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