{"id":594326,"date":"2019-10-27T04:08:53","date_gmt":"2019-10-27T04:08:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/usd-debt-exposure-an-achilles-heel-for-ems-right-now-fitch-says\/"},"modified":"2019-10-27T04:08:53","modified_gmt":"2019-10-27T04:08:53","slug":"usd-debt-exposure-an-achilles-heel-for-ems-right-now-fitch-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/usd-debt-exposure-an-achilles-heel-for-ems-right-now-fitch-says\/","title":{"rendered":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says:<\/b> Of all the macro issues emerging markets have to worry about, the biggest concern for them at the current moment is their exposure to USD-denominated external debt as the USD strengthens, Fitch Solutions\u2019 Michael Larson said in a webinar we attended last week. In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, EMs went on a debt binge for nearly a decade, nearly doubling their private debt-to-GDP ratio between March 2008 and 2019. Now, as the USD is beginning to strengthen and EMs are required to service these debts, the latent effects of the debt binge are beginning to be felt.<\/p>\n

To make matters worse, a recession is on its way<\/b>, Larson said. The global and EM economist said that the risk of recession is rising globally, although it remains unclear exactly when it will hit. And while most like to point to the US-China trade war as being a key culprit behind the global economic slowdown, Larson pointed out that there are trade tensions all around the world fueling uncertainty, including Brexit and the trade issues between Japan and Korea. However, he says that the catalyst will likely be a US recession, which will set off a domino effect around the world.<\/p>\n

And a recession is usually followed by a USD rally, which will further exacerbate EM debt struggles.<\/b> The only question that remains at this point is when this perfect storm will manifest. Larson said his core view is that the recession won\u2019t necessarily materialize in 2020, but stressed that there are plenty of recessionary indicators that all but confirm we\u2019re well down that path.<\/p>\n

What we would have liked him to clarify: To what extent can Fed easing stave off EM Zombie Apocalypse 2: Night of the Living Debt.<\/b> He did say, however, that markets are pricing a Fed rate cut when it meets in a few days, and that Fed cuts usually propel a global monetary easing trend. However, any monetary policy action takes between 12 and 18 months to show their real effect on the economy, and whether the current easing binge will come into effect in time to shield EMs mostly depends on how other global headwinds proceed over the next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says: Of all the macro issues emerging markets have to worry about, the biggest concern for them at the current moment is their exposure to USD-denominated external debt as the USD strengthens, Fitch Solutions\u2019 Michael Larson said in a webinar we attended last week. 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EMs have racked up significant debts since the 2008 global financial crisis, and are scheduled to repay nearly USD 800 bn-worth of debt on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569332,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/20\/fears-rise-as-african-governments-amass-record-breaking-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":594326,"position":1},"title":"Fears rise as African governments amass record-breaking debt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"African governments amass record-breaking debt, raising concerns on repayment: African countries have amassed FX-denominated sovereign debts at a record rate over the past few years, fueling concerns that some governments will struggle to repay these debts as they mature during the next decade, reports the Financial Times. The borrowing frenzy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/267.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/28\/em-state-owned-enterprises-rising-debt-is-a-growing-concern-for-govt-finances-says-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":594326,"position":2},"title":"EM state-owned enterprises\u2019 rising debt is a \u201cgrowing concern\u201d for gov\u2019t finances, says IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging market state-owned enterprises\u2019 rising debt burdens are a \u201cgrowing concern\u201d for government finances, as they currently account for \u201ca significant portion\u201d of all EM debt securities, the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability report (pdf). EM state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have capitalized on \u201ceasy global financial conditions\u201d over the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1571.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573397,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/04\/em-portfolio-inflows-fall-m-o-m-in-july-but-equity-debt-flows-are-continuing-to-recover-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":594326,"position":3},"title":"EM portfolio inflows fall m-o-m in July, but equity + debt flows are continuing to recover -IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Net emerging markets portfolio inflows nearly halved in July to USD 15.1 bn from USD 29.2 bn in June, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IIF) monthly capital flows tracker. The m-o-m decline comes as \u201chard data are still lagging behind\u201d a recovery in investors\u2019 sentiment on the outlook\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/15.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544327,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/27\/the-case-for-investing-in-em-economies-has-rarely-been-weaker-argues-the-ft\/","url_meta":{"origin":594326,"position":4},"title":"The case for investing in EM economies has \u201crarely been weaker,\u201d argues the FT","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"With EM economies facing slowing growth, soaring debt, and imminent US interest rate hikes, the case for investing in them has \u201crarely been weaker,\u201d argues Jonathan Wheatley in the Financial Times. Amid the ongoing covid-19 pandemic, many EM economies have accrued high levels of debt, which they relied on to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/560.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570177,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/22\/em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd\/","url_meta":{"origin":594326,"position":5},"title":"EM economies are under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EM economies under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD: Emerging market debt and equity outflows have hit USD 78 bn in the two months since the start of the covid-19 crisis in January, with investors rushing to snap up cash as a safe haven asset, Jonathan Wheatley\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/249.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=594326"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594326\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/594306"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/594327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=594326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=594326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=594326"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=594326"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=594326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}