{"id":594268,"date":"2019-10-24T03:57:00","date_gmt":"2019-10-24T03:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/24\/central-bank-of-egypt-expected-to-begin-orchestrated-unfolding-of-liquidity-economists-say\/"},"modified":"2019-10-24T03:57:00","modified_gmt":"2019-10-24T03:57:00","slug":"central-bank-of-egypt-expected-to-begin-orchestrated-unfolding-of-liquidity-economists-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/24\/central-bank-of-egypt-expected-to-begin-orchestrated-unfolding-of-liquidity-economists-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank of Egypt expected to begin \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity, economists say"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Is the CBE about to begin an \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity to boost credit growth, private investment? CI Capital and Sigma Capital think so. <\/b>The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could kick off a liquidity cycle over the remainder of the year and into 1Q2020 by scaling back its requirements for commercial banks\u2019 reserve ratios, allowing banks to increase money supply in the market, Sigma Capital and CI Capital said in two separate research notes this week. The CBE had hiked its reserve requirement Ratio<\/a> (RRR) for bank deposits to 14% in 4Q2017, which Sigma says pushed down Egypt\u2019s money supply by EGP 400 bn. Now that inflationary pressures have largely been contained, Sigma says the CBE is likely to move RRR in the opposite direction to support economic growth and expects the ratio to be reduced to 10% \u2014 essentially making it possible for banks to loan out a higher percentage of the deposits they take in.<\/p>\n

How much liquidity should we expect this policy direction to unlock?<\/b> If RRR is cut down to 10% as Sigma anticipates, banks would unlock EGP 70 bn currently held in their reserves, and direct that money to increase liquidity in the sector. CI Capital, on the other hand, expects the CBE to allow for the release of EGP 220-250 bn of the EGP 650 bn currently tied in its corridor-linked deposits in 1Q2020. Over the course of the next two years, the CBE could release EGP 590 bn into the market, CI says.<\/p>\n

The question: Will companies have appetite to invest in anything other than capex replacement <\/b>when the money is more available and interest rates finally hit a reasonable level?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Increased liquidity will spur credit growth, investment, and economic growth:<\/b> Since the CBE began its monetary easing cycle in 1Q2018, \u201cactivity has been broadly muted, as liquidity remains tight,\u201d CI Capital says. As liquidity was tight, the 550 bps rate cuts the CBE has enacted have yet to take full effect on the economy. By increasing money supply in tandem with reduced interest rates, credit growth and private sector lending for investments are all expected to rise, thereby kicking off the economic growth cycle.<\/p>\n

More liquidity and lower interest rates should see inflation-adjusted credit growth at north of 12% in 2020, compared to -6.6% on average over the past three years, <\/b>CI Capital says, suggesting that the acceleration of investment will be supported later on by a recovery in consumption levels.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect an influx of liquidity to put significant downward pressure on the EGP<\/b>, even as demand for the currency will ease slightly on the back of increased supply, the CI team argues. The investment bank expects the EGP to depreciate 5-8% during the current fiscal year and projects an average FX rate of EGP 17.11 to the greenback in FY2020-2021<\/b>.<\/p>\n

The liquidity release will likely be complemented by more rate cuts next year, but don\u2019t expect another cut in November<\/b>, CI Capital says. The economists expect the CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee to keep rates on hold when it meets next month, and suggest that a 250-300 bps rate cut is in the cards over the course of 2020. Sigma\u2019s view seems to support the suggestion that the CBE will hold off on rate cuts for a little while, as the research house expects the main monetary policy tool that will be in play is RRR.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is the CBE about to begin an \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity to boost credit growth, private investment? CI Capital and Sigma Capital think so. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could kick off a liquidity cycle over the remainder of the year and into 1Q2020 by scaling back its requirements for commercial banks\u2019 reserve ratios, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":594269,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,136,104,72,724,3163,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-594268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-ci-capital","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-monetary-policy","tag-sigma-capital","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"20a1a282-7cc5-4076-b316-156080ce350f","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"7841d2af-81bc-408b-8a7e-e30acea3893a","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/797.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[594261],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCentral Bank of Egypt expected to begin \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity, economists say - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/24\/central-bank-of-egypt-expected-to-begin-orchestrated-unfolding-of-liquidity-economists-say\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Central Bank of Egypt expected to begin \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity, economists say\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Is the CBE about to begin an \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity to boost credit growth, private investment? 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This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594315,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/egypts-pound-rallies-to-new-two-and-a-half-year-high-approaching-egp-16-usd-1-barrier\/","url_meta":{"origin":594268,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s pound rallies to new two-and-a-half year high, approaching EGP 16 \/ USD 1 barrier","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EGP rallies to new two-and-a-half year high: The EGP rose to a new two-and-a-half year high against the greenback, hitting EGP 16.10 from EGP 16.12 on Wednesday, central bank data shows. The EGP has risen 9.9% against the USD since the beginning of the year, including a 2.4% gain in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/17.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559643,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/31\/keep-it-steady\/","url_meta":{"origin":594268,"position":2},"title":"Keep it steady","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE expected to leave interest rates on hold in its first meeting of 2021: Eleven out of 12 economists and analysts surveyed by Enterprise expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave rates unchanged when it meets this Thursday, 4 February. Still, most\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/363.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574709,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/20\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-september-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":594268,"position":3},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold in September 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE expected to leave rates on hold when it meets this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely keep interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 11 economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/210.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559196,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/13\/no-cash-dividend-for-you\/","url_meta":{"origin":594268,"position":4},"title":"No (cash) dividend for you","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egyptian banks are barred from paying out cash dividends to shareholders on 2020 returns under instructions (pdf) issued yesterday by the Central Bank of Egypt designed to protect bank liquidity as covid-19 continues to affect the economy. Banks will not be allowed to \u201cmake [currency] payouts from this year\u2019s profits,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573592,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/11\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-august-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":594268,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold in August 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE likely to leave rates on hold when it meets this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. Nine of 10 analysts surveyed expect the bank to keep\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/76.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=594268"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594268\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/594261"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/594269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=594268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=594268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=594268"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=594268"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=594268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}