{"id":593903,"date":"2019-10-14T04:00:01","date_gmt":"2019-10-14T04:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-10-14T04:00:01","modified_gmt":"2019-10-14T04:00:01","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 14 October 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"web-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-10-12\/is-the-world-economy-sliding-into-first-recession-since-2009?srnd=premium-middle-east\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1555.jpg?ssl=1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-04\"><\/a> <b>The <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/meetings.imf.org\/en\/2019\/Annual\"><b>annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank<\/b><\/a><b> start today<\/b> and wrap up on Sunday, with the talk of the town these days being the global economic outlook for 2019.<\/p>\n<p><b>The IMF will weigh in on the question everybody\u2019s been asking for months: Is the world economy sliding into recession?<\/b> Global economic growth has slowed to 2.2% in 3Q2019, down from 4.7% at the start of 2018, according to Bloomberg Economics\u2019 global GDP tracker. Newly minted IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva sees a \u201cserious risk\u201d the slowdown will spread, and <b>on Tuesday the fund is likely to cut its 2019 global growth forecast<\/b> from 3.2%, which was already the weakest reading since 2009, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-10-12\/is-the-world-economy-sliding-into-first-recession-since-2009?srnd=premium-middle-east\">Bloomberg says<\/a>. The bottom line is \u201ca lot needs to go right\u201d for the world to dodge a major slowdown, according to Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics.<\/p>\n<p><b>Why might you need to dig a bunker:<\/b> The 18-month-long US-China trade\u2026 war has put global growth under pressure, causing it to contract for five straight months. The UK and EU have yet to seal a Brexit agreement, and regional tensions with Iran may still hike oil prices. And on top of all that, analysts are increasingly concerned that central banks lack the necessary monetary policy tools to offset macro pressures and prevent recession.<\/p>\n<p><b>But all hope is not lost:<\/b> The probability of the US falling into a recession is actually only at around 25%, the Bloomberg economist suggests, and, while its labor market has shown signs of easing, it should continue to support household spending. On the opposite end of the globe, China can also still shift if needed. And while central banks may not be well equipped to head off a crisis entirely, the monetary policy wheels are in motion and policy changes need time to deliver the desired effect.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"grey-line\">\n<p><b>Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry begins his tour of Eastern Europe in Vienna today,<\/b> according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EgyptianCabinet\/posts\/1379101315601563\">a cabinet statement<\/a>. He will then visit Croatia, Lithuania and Latvia for bilateral talks.<\/p>\n<p>Key dates for your diaries this month:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The two-day <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EgyptCan2017\/photos\/a.1821050721510693\/2485895765026182\/?type=3&theater\"><b>\u2018Egypt Can\u2019 conference<\/b><\/a><b> starts on Wednesday, 16 October.<\/b> The event will be attended by 65 of the biggest foreign investors in Egypt as well as representatives from international financial institutions, businesses and the Egyptian government.<\/li>\n<li><b>The <\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/platforms-root-technologies.com\/icec-2019\/\"><b>Intelligent Cities Exhibition & Conference<\/b><\/a> will take place at the Hilton Heliopolis on <b>23-24 October<\/b>.<\/li>\n<li><b>A B2B conference for German and Egyptian companies to talk cooperation<\/b> will take place on Monday, 28 October in Cairo. <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/forms\/d\/1MOIclPxAZampSsYBPpAQHpj2dTWlxWvIk26QwgMYIlw\/edit\">Click or tap here to register<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><b>The US Federal Reserve will meet on 29-30 October<\/b> to review key interest rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr class=\"grey-line\">\n<p><b>PE firms forced to think small as big transactions go south:<\/b> The number of private equity transactions worth USD 1 bn or less has hit a record high as the collapse of a number of large agreements force firms to think small, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/4be7e7c4-ec52-11e9-85f4-d00e5018f061\">the Financial Times says<\/a>. Buyouts and investments valued at under USD 500 mn have also hit new highs, and now constitute almost a third of the market. The increase in direct lenders and the abundance of PE firms looking to close in on these assets are expected to help maintain the trend for the foreseeable future, said David Kamo, a senior private equity banker at Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n<p><b>Failed IPOs to hit Goldman and Morgan Stanley where it hurts:<\/b> Bulge bracket investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have slashed their 3Q earnings expectations following a slew of underperforming IPOs and an M&A slowdown, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/084c8334-ec76-11e9-85f4-d00e5018f061\">the Financial Times says<\/a>. Analysts have sharply reduced their estimates for Goldman by 15% over the past month, while Morgan Stanley\u2019s forecasts have been cut by 10%.<\/p>\n<p><b>SoftBank planning WeWork takeover:<\/b> SoftBank Group has lined up a financing package for WeWork that could give it control of the company in return for much needed liquidity, sources with knowledge of the matter have said, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/softbank-seeking-to-take-control-of-wework-through-financing-package-11571002488?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">Wall Street Journal<\/a>. The Japanese holding company already owns a third of WeWork and is considering putting in another few bn USD in new equity and debt. This would all but wrest control of the company away from Adam Neumann, the company\u2019s co-founder \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/09\/26\/what-were-tracking-on-26-september-2019\/\">and until recently<\/a> \u2014 the chief executive.<\/p>\n<p><b>The embattled company does have another option though:<\/b> JPMorgan is reportedly in talks with investors over a multibn USD debt package, sources said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"web-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/55.jpg?ssl=1\"><\/p>\n<p><b>A provisional US-China agreement is a \u201cnet positive\u201d for both economies, but don\u2019t overestimate the impact of a trade truce<\/b>,warns this Wall Street Journal video (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/video\/why-investors-shouldnt-overestimate-us-china-partial-trade-deal\/27083064-7570-4951-98B3-9B36645B068F.html\">watch, runtime: 01:31<\/a>). Uncertainty surrounding future trade policy \u2014 arguably the biggest impact of the trade war on the US \u2014 has not abated, as many of the thorniest issues between the two countries have been tabled and no enforcement mechanisms negotiated. Investment and employment are faltering, especially in areas like manufacturing. Meanwhile, China has had its own domestic economic problems to contend with, which may well have been compounded by a fall in exports that is expected to have accelerated in September, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/12336556-ea9c-11e9-85f4-d00e5018f061\">Financial Times says<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley concurs: <\/b>\u201cThere is not yet a viable path to existing tariffs declining, and tariff escalation remains a meaningful risk,\u201d the investment bank wrote in a note, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/10\/13\/trade-deal-morgan-stanley-warns-tariff-escalation-remains-a-meaningful-risk.html\">according to CNBC<\/a>. \u201cThus, we do not yet expect a meaningful rebound in corporate behavior that would drive global growth expectations higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Also making the rounds:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Moscow is looking to cut its exposure to the USD<\/b> by accepting either EUR or RUB settlements for its \u201cvast\u201d energy exports, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/704cde6c-eb53-11e9-a240-3b065ef5fc55\">Financial Times<\/a> reports, and has already cult its holdings of US sovereign debt in just 18 months. <\/li>\n<li><b>Kurdish forces are casting their lot with the Syrian military<\/b> in a bid to halt Turkey\u2019s invasion of northern Syria, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.apnews.com\/7e90fd08a89e49d9bcae6a85a131a64a\">the Associated Press reports<\/a>. The report comes as President Donald Trump ordered that troops begin pulling out of the north of the country, increasing speculation that a full withdrawal may be imminent, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.apnews.com\/7706d07a501149d3b665c253ac8ff3c4\">the AP says<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"web-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1223.jpg?ssl=1\"><\/p>\n<p><b>A quick tip of the hat to our friends at Zulficar & Partners<\/b>, who recently celebrated their 10th anniversary as a firm with friends, clients and colleagues at a cocktail reception held in the shadow of the Pyramids.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank start today and wrap up on Sunday, with the talk of the town these days being the global economic outlook for 2019. The IMF will weigh in on the question everybody\u2019s been asking for months: Is the world economy sliding into recession? Global economic growth has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[2393,168,104,93,72,2403,260,272,78,262,7128,508,127,758,270,2231,433,218,7263,1220,74,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-593903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-brexit","tag-diplomacy","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-global-economy","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-imf","tag-ipo-watch","tag-jpmorgan","tag-ma-watch","tag-morgan-stanley","tag-politics","tag-private-equity","tag-russia","tag-softbank","tag-syria","tag-turkey","tag-war","tag-wework","tag-what-were-tracking-today","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"83f9e31d-f0d5-4efe-9c33-9906f50d5da3","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[593901],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What we\u2019re tracking on 14 October 2019 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 14 October 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank start today and wrap up on Sunday, with the talk of the town these days being the global economic outlook for 2019. 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Global economic growth has [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-10-14T04:00:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1555.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"What we\u2019re tracking on 14 October 2019\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-14T04:00:01+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/\"},\"wordCount\":1008,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1555.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Brexit\",\"DIPLOMACY\",\"economy\",\"energy\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"global economy\",\"Goldman Sachs\",\"IMF\",\"IPO watch\",\"JPMorgan\",\"M&amp;A Watch\",\"Morgan Stanley\",\"politics\",\"private equity\",\"Russia\",\"SoftBank\",\"Syria\",\"Turkey\",\"war\",\"WeWork\",\"What We're Tracking Today\",\"World Bank\"],\"articleSection\":[\"What We're Tracking Today\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/\",\"name\":\"What we\u2019re tracking on 14 October 2019 - 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It took the confluence of Ramadan, Western Easter, Coptic Good Friday and Passover to slow down the freight train that is the 2022 news cycle, but we\u2019re not complaining.Sound smart: The overlapping of Ramadan, two Easters\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570803,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/15\/the-coronavirus-will-trigger-the-worst-global-recession-since-the-great-depression-in-mena-only-egypts-economy-will-grow-this-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":593903,"position":1},"title":"The coronavirus will trigger the worst global recession since the Great Depression; in MENA, only Egypt\u2019s economy will grow this year \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The coronavirus will trigger the worst global recession since the Great Depression, the IMF predicts: The world is facing its greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression as output plummets at a record pace in response to the \u201cGreat Lockdown\u201d put in place to contain covid-19, the IMF warned yesterday.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597344,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/24\/what-were-tracking-on-24-july-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":593903,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 24 July 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, folks, and welcome back to the second half of our shortened work week. We should find out today whether the IMF\u2019s executive board will sign off on disbursing the final USD 2 bn tranche of our USD 12 bn loan. Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593994,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/16\/imf-downgrades-expectations-for-2019-global-growth-amid-synchronized-slowdown\/","url_meta":{"origin":593903,"position":3},"title":"IMF downgrades expectations for 2019 global growth amid \u201csynchronized slowdown\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF downgrades 2019 global growth outlook to 3%: The global economy is in a \u201csynchronized slowdown,\u201d IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in the fund\u2019s latest World Economic Outlook (pdf), which has again downgraded its 2019 growth projections to 3.0% from 3.3% in its April report. Growth is expected to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/153.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548131,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/27\/imf-is-gloomy-and-uncertain-on-global-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":593903,"position":4},"title":"IMF is \u201cgloomy and uncertain\u201d on global economy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has revised downwards its global growth outlook for this year and next, warning that gathering headwinds are pushing the world closer to recession. In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601690,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/07\/what-were-tracking-on-06-march-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":593903,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 06 March 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends, and happy Thursday from Enterprise Global Headquarters, where we are all looking forward to a warm and sunny weekend.Egypt won\u2019t go back to the IMF, cap in hand for more: Our future cooperation with the IMF on the reform program will not involve another loan, Madbouly Cabinet\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/593903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=593903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/593903\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/593901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=593903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=593903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=593903"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=593903"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=593903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}