{"id":593003,"date":"2019-11-14T04:00:51","date_gmt":"2019-11-14T04:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-november-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-11-14T04:00:51","modified_gmt":"2019-11-14T04:00:51","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-14-november-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-november-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 14 November 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s interest rate day today: <\/strong>The CBE meets today to review interest rates, with five of the six economists we surveyed last week predicting a rate cut<\/a>. A Reuters poll<\/a> showed much of the same, with 12 of 14 economists surveyed expecting a rate cut.<\/p>\n

Expectations for continued easing cycle supported by low inflation: <\/strong>Headline inflation hit<\/a> lows not seen in almost a decade<\/a> last month on falling food and beverage prices, and a favorable base effect. The annual headline rate fell to just 2.4%, from 4.3% in September, while core inflation remained basically flat<\/a>, rising just 0.1% to 2.7%.<\/p>\n

The base effect is likely to get less favorable in the months ahead but inflation should<\/strong> remain \u201ccontained.\u201d <\/strong>Investment bank Pharos said in a research note last week that the base effect which contributed to low inflation readings over the past few months is likely to start diminishing, raising inflation to between 6-7% in November and December. Shuaa Securities also said that the base effect has peaked but any pickup in inflation in the coming months will be \u201ccontained.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic:<\/strong> Fed Chairman Jay Powell yesterday gave a firmer indication that the central bank will hold off on further interest rate cuts when it meets in December. The Fed has cut its Fed Funds rate by 75 bps since July on fears that the US economy may be tipping into recession. Speaking before a congressional panel yesterday<\/a>, Powell listed off a string of positive economic data, but stressed the bank would \u201crespond accordingly\u201d if performance dipped enough to cause a \u201cmaterial reassessment\u201d of its outlook.<\/p>\n

\n

El Sisi in Germany next week for G20 Compact with Africa<\/strong>: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will be in Berlin next week to attend the G20 Compact with Africa on 19 and 20 November, the German Ambassador in Cairo Cyrill Nunn said in a press conference covered by the local press.<\/a> El Sisi will be wearing his African Union hat during the summit and will witness the Egyptian Investment Ministry signing a EUR 154 mn loan to support renewable energy, water management, waste recycling, and technical education. Nunn noted that the second EUR 80 mn tranche of the EUR 240 mn four-tranche debt exchange agreement<\/a> is due to be completed soon.<\/p>\n

Egypt to offer USD 1.5 bn in USD bills next week:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will offer USD 1.56 bn in one-year USD-denominated t-bills on Monday, 18 November. The last local USD issuance was back in June, when an auction for USD 715 mn in bonds was 1.3x oversubscribed. The yield was 3.87%, marginally down from 3.89% in a previous USD 1 bn May auction<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Our friends at AmCham are hosting the US-Egypt Future Prosperity Forum on Monday, 18 November<\/strong>, with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Manufacturing Ian Steff, and several Egyptian ministers scheduled to speak. You can check out the full agenda here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

KUDOS-<\/strong> Our friends at CIB have been named among Forbes\u2019 list of the World\u2019s 500<\/a>Best Employers<\/a>. The leading private sector bank ranked 90 overall, placing it among the world\u2019s top 100 employers and making it the top-ranked employer across the entirety of Africa. The list is compiled based on 1.4 mn employment recommendations, accounting for employee ratings of their own employers and other employers they perceive positively.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Somabay is home to five luxury resorts, a lively marina, and outlets for premium entertainment and relaxation. Somabay caters to diverse tastes with a common thread of well-being,<\/p>\n

relaxation, and sheer enjoyment of life that is reflected in all its hotels & facilities.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

El Sisi in Abu Dhabi for talks with MbZ:<\/strong> President Abdel Fattah El Sisi arrived yesterday in Abu Dhabi for talks with UAE Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed, an Ittihadiya statement said<\/a>. The visit, we suspect, may have something to do with this:<\/strong> Bloomberg reported<\/a> yesterday that negotiations are progressing between Qatar and the Saudi-led group of countries that in 2017 imposed a blockade on the country. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have all agreed to take part in the Arabian Gulf Cup in Qatar this month as a goodwill gesture, ahead of what could be (as one Emirati academic called it) an \u201cimminent\u201d breakthrough.<\/span><\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley both bear and bull on Aramco valuation:<\/strong> Analysts at US investment bank Morgan Stanley have put Saudi Aramco\u2019s valuation at anywhere between USD 1.06 tn and USD 2 tn based on the dividend discount model<\/a>, according to a presentation seen by Bloomberg<\/a>. Another model, meanwhile, gives a range of USD 1.07 tn and USD 2.5 tn \u2014 a huge spread of more than USD 1.4 tn. Sixteen banks have so far given valuation estimates, with the midpoint being around USD 1.75 tn.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Private equity has been losing its luster as they no longer offer a value discount<\/strong> from public markets, but maintain the same level of risk<\/strong>, Verdad Advisers partners Daniel Rasmussen and Brian Chingono write for the Financial Times\u2019 Alphaville blog<\/a>. Whereas PE transactions saw success in the 1980s and \u201890s, this is no longer the case in today\u2019s market, where the average PE company is purchased at 12x its Ebitda. This is around the same as the value on S&P 500.<\/p>\n

The bigger issue with PE valuations and true debt burdens is that they tend to \u201coverstate\u201d Ebitda<\/strong>, the hedge fund partners say. \u201cMany private equity [transactions] are valued on Adjusted Ebitda (as opposed to the standard approach of using actual Ebitda over the past 12 months). Adjustments to Ebitda help private equity firms to sell their [transactions]; just as some men exaggerate about their height in online dating apps.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The digital yuan: Coming at the start of 2020?<\/strong> Beijing could begin issuing its new digital currency to commercial banks and online payment platforms within the next two or three months, according to HCM Capital. Jack Lee, managing partner of the PE firm, told CNBC<\/a> that the government has completed the system and that it would soon launch the currency on a trial basis.<\/p>\n

Be afraid, be very afraid, Kenneth Rogoff warns Capitol Hill:<\/strong> A Chinese digital currency that cannot be monitored by regulators in Washington poses a \u201creal threat\u201d to US national interests, the former IMF chief economist writes in the Guardian<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Google becomes the latest Big Tech firm to plot an entrance into financial services:<\/strong> Google execs are in talks with US banks about offering \u201csmart checking accounts\u201d to Google Pay customers, according to the Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

New evidence<\/a><\/strong> dropped during Day 1 of the Trump public impeachment hearings:<\/strong> Bill Taylor, the US charge d\u2019affaires in Ukraine (pictured above), told the US House that President Donald Trump was overheard talking on the phone about \u201cinvestigations\u201d that he wanted the Ukrainian government to launch against rivals in the Democratic party. The Associated Press has more<\/a>.<\/p>\n

US, China trade negotiators hit stumbling block over farm purchases:<\/strong> China is refusing to buy a specific quantity of US agricultural products, weeks after Trump claimed that Beijing had committed to buying USD 50 bn worth, the Wall Street Journal reports<\/a>. China will reject any agreement that appears to give preferential treatment to the US, and wants an escape route from the pact should trade relations again deteriorate, people close to the talks said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s interest rate day today: The CBE meets today to review interest rates, with five of the six economists we surveyed last week predicting a rate cut. A Reuters poll showed much of the same, with 12 of 14 economists surveyed expecting a rate cut. Expectations for continued easing cycle supported by low inflation: Headline […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[394,271,116,380,518,168,984,9173,72,7202,182,7111,349,1424,724,127,758,296,219,132,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-593003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-aramco","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-china","tag-currencies","tag-digital-currency","tag-diplomacy","tag-donald-trump","tag-economics","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-policy","tag-inflation","tag-infrastructure","tag-interest-rates","tag-jerome-powell","tag-monetary-policy","tag-politics","tag-private-equity","tag-qatar","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-trade","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9a564ed1-c6e0-4fd4-88e2-7783b3e02814","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[593001],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat we\u2019re tracking on 14 November 2019 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-november-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 14 November 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s interest rate day today: The CBE meets today to review interest rates, with five of the six economists we surveyed last week predicting a rate cut. 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Annual urban\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2438.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596258,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists\/","url_meta":{"origin":593003,"position":1},"title":"CBE likely to cut rates today -economists","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s a growing consensus for a rate cut today: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by \u201cat least\u201d 100 basis points when it meets later today as easing inflation and a stable EGP offset concerns of a sell-off, according to 10 of 12\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/580.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592825,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/07\/cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":593003,"position":2},"title":"CBE to make third consecutive rate cut next week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists predict CBE will make third consecutive rate cut next Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets a week from today, according to five of six economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":593003,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596299,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-for-the-first-time-since-february\/","url_meta":{"origin":593003,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates for the first time since February","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts interest rates for the first time since February: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 150 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s \u201crelatively tame\u201d inflation figures, declining unemployment rates, and increasing GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/2941.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568327,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/27\/you-called-it-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":593003,"position":5},"title":"You called it: CBE leaves rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left rates on hold in its policy meeting on Thursday, citing higher inflation and muted economic growth in the third quarter of the year, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The decision comes amid growing global concern about a new, faster\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/434.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/593003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=593003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/593003\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/593001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=593003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=593003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=593003"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=593003"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=593003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}