{"id":592825,"date":"2019-11-07T04:11:03","date_gmt":"2019-11-07T04:11:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/07\/cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week\/"},"modified":"2019-11-07T04:11:03","modified_gmt":"2019-11-07T04:11:03","slug":"cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/07\/cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE to make third consecutive rate cut next week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <b>SURVEY- Economists predict CBE will make third consecutive rate cut next Thursday:<\/b> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets a week from today, according to five of six economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the surprising drop in inflation figures in September, a trend they expect to continue through December thanks to a favorable base effect. \u201cWe think the ongoing deceleration in inflation will support the current pro-easing trend. We expect a 100 bps cut in the upcoming MPC meeting,\u201d said Shuaa Securities Esraa Ahmed. Pharos, Prime, Beltone and HC are all forecasting a 50-100 bps cut, while Renaissance Capital sees the central bank holding.<\/p>\n<p><b>The CBE cut rates by 100 bps <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations-2\/\"><b>in September<\/b><\/a>, bringing the overnight deposit rate to 13.25% and the lending rate 14.25%. The main operation and deposit rates were both cut to 13.75%. The central bank has cut rates by 350 bps so far this year, with 250 bps coming in the past two meetings.<\/p>\n<p><b>Inflation to fall again in October:<\/b> All analysts we surveyed see inflation continuing to fall in October, albeit at a more moderate pace than over the previous quarter that saw the urban rate plunge to <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/10\/13\/egypts-annual-headline-inflation-falls-again-in-september-clearing-the-way-for-more-cuts\/\">4.8%<\/a> in September from 8.7% in July. Prime Holding Senior Economist Mona Bdeir expects urban inflation to ease further in October to range between 2.6-3.0%, Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify forecasts it to fall to 3.5%, Shuaa\u2019s Ahmed sees 3% inflation. Monette Doss, macroeconomist at HC, expects inflation to average 4.6% during the final quarter, remaining well below the CBE\u2019s target range of 9% (\u00b1 3%). <b>Inflation figures for October are due out Sunday, 10 November.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>This supports a third consecutive rate cut next week:<\/b> \u201cA weak inflation reading is still supportive of further rate cuts in the next MPC meeting, with an expected 100 bps cut as the anticipated drop in October inflation figures are coupled with a third Fed rate cut at its last meeting,\u201d Bdeir said. HC\u2019s Doss said that recent inflation data will give the CBE space to make another half-point cut this month.<\/p>\n<p><b>Fed easing gives extra encouragement:<\/b> Pharos\u2019 El Swaify told us that the Federal Reserve\u2019s decision last week to cut rates by another 25 bps will give additional incentive to the CBE to continue easing.<\/p>\n<p><b>Renaissance Capital\u2019s Ahmed Hafez thinks it is more likely that the CBE will keep rates on hold<\/b> next week: \u201cWe see no change in policy rates in the upcoming meeting, while there is a room for a cut, which would be a positive surprise,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><b>Egypt\u2019s carry trade remains attractive in comparison to other emerging markets:<\/b> Egypt is still providing one of the most attractive yields, with real interest rates still competitive and above peers in emerging markets \u2014 especially after Turkey last month slashed rates by 250 bps.<\/p>\n<p><b>The months ahead: <\/b>Bdeir expects the overnight deposit rates to end the year at 12.25%. while she predicts inflation to pick up due to faded base effect, it would remain within the CBE target of 9% +\/ -3% until the end of 2020.Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh sees the CBE cutting rates by another 300 bps through 2020.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SURVEY- Economists predict CBE will make third consecutive rate cut next Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets a week from today, according to five of six economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the surprising drop in inflation figures [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":592826,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-592825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"91128f00-1c79-44f5-9ce5-89fe3eb6f779","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[592820],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CBE to make third consecutive rate cut next week - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/07\/cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CBE to make third consecutive rate cut next week\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"SURVEY- Economists predict CBE will make third consecutive rate cut next Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets a week from today, according to five of six economists polled by Enterprise. 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This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594183,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/22\/fitch-forecasts-50-bps-rate-cut-in-november-mpc-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":592825,"position":1},"title":"Fitch forecasts 50 bps rate cut in November MPC meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Solutions expects the CBE to cut interest rates by 0.5% before the end of the year, and 1.5% in 2020, Masrawy said, citing a report. The data vendor arm of the ratings agency said that easing inflation and the two consecutive rate cuts in the US will encourage the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":592825,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the unexpected inflation rate in August, which dropped to the lowest level in six-and-a-half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":592825,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593045,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":592825,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with market expectations: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited inflation\u2019s continued deceleration in October, with annual headline inflation hitting its lowest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596258,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists\/","url_meta":{"origin":592825,"position":5},"title":"CBE likely to cut rates today -economists","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s a growing consensus for a rate cut today: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by \u201cat least\u201d 100 basis points when it meets later today as easing inflation and a stable EGP offset concerns of a sell-off, according to 10 of 12\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/580.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=592825"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592825\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/592820"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/592826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=592825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=592825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=592825"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=592825"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=592825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}