{"id":592225,"date":"2023-08-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/02\/hsbc-sees-consumer-stocks-as-an-attractive-sector-in-a-challenged-market\/"},"modified":"2023-08-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-08-02T00:00:00","slug":"hsbc-sees-consumer-stocks-as-an-attractive-sector-in-a-challenged-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/02\/hsbc-sees-consumer-stocks-as-an-attractive-sector-in-a-challenged-market\/","title":{"rendered":"HSBC sees consumer stocks as an \u201cattractive sector in a challenged market\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Consumer is \u201can attractive sector in a challenged market.\u201d<\/strong>Soaring inflation and successive devaluations of the EGP in recent months has triggered a wave of uncertainty among investors in Egyptian stocks. HSBC has updated its outlook for five EGX-listed companies in the consumer sector in a report by Nicholas Paton and Anup Kataria dated 28 July. <\/p>\n

The companies: <\/strong>Cheesemaker Domty, Edita Food Industries, GB Corp \u2014 formerly known as GB Auto \u2014 dairy company Juhayna, and carpet maker Oriental Weavers. <\/p>\n

Paton and Kataria are downgrading Juhayna to hold \u2014 and think GB Corp has the most upside <\/strong>to their current target price. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Inflation accelerated at a record pace in June<\/a> as the impact of multiple currency devaluations combined with higher seasonal demand to send food prices soaring. Annual urban rate of inflation rose to 35.7% y-o-y during the month. <\/p>\n

HSBC is expecting a solid 2Q earnings season for consumer firms: <\/strong>\u201cWe see profit growth across companies mainly aided by the price increases with the trailing effect of low cost inventory,\u201d the bank said. Look for a margin squeeze in 3Q, \u201cfollowed by improvement in 4Q as price increases take effect.\u201d <\/p>\n

The backdrop could be better: <\/strong>\u201cThe past four years have seen a deterioration in investor interest in Egypt, with concerns on currency inflexibility, the creeping influence of the state, and lack of progress on reform,\u201d the bank said. <\/p>\n

Consumer stocks are attractively priced right now if you\u2019re comfortable with the FX overhang: <\/strong>HSBC notes that while the EGX has \u201crallied 20% in USD [terms]\u201d from this year\u2019s lows, consumer stocks are trading at PE of 8.9x against a five-year average of 10x \u2014 meaning \u201c overall valuations are close to all-time lows<\/strong>,\u201d the analysts write. <\/p>\n

THE BREAKDOWN-<\/strong><\/p>\n

#1- Domty: <\/strong>The cheesemaker is now looking at an HSBC target price of EGP 11.30 from a former target of EGP 7.60, implying 33% upside on the current price. The 2023 revenue forecast is up 17% on HSBC\u2019s prior forecast to EGP 7.2 bn and the 2024 revenue forecast up 22% to EGP 8.3 bn, \u201cdue to price hikes across segments.\u201d <\/p>\n

Downside risks: <\/strong>Patton and Kataria say any delays in receivables would stretch Domty\u2019s working capital, adding that entry into new segments could hit margins. <\/p>\n

#2- Edita: <\/strong>The company sees its target price increase to EGP 23.70 a piece from EGP 17.50, suggesting some 26% upside to current price. HSBC\u2019s 2023 revenue forecast for Edita is up 30% to EGP 11.3 bn, while the 2024 revenue forecast is up 16% to EGP 11.6 bn. \u201cPrice hikes across segments\u201d will drive the growth. <\/p>\n

Downside risks: <\/strong>The bank sees worse-than-expected price inflation and entry to new segments impacting margins as potential risks. <\/p>\n

#3- Juhayna: <\/strong>The company is now looking at a target price of EGP 13.20 from EGP 9.80, a 0.5% upside, according to the bank. HSBC revised its revenue forecast for Juhayna to EGP 13.9 bn this year, up 7% from previous forecasts as the company pivoted to \u201cfocus on exports of concentrates which had much higher margins.\u201d <\/p>\n

Downside risks: <\/strong>HSBC sees raw material price volatility as a risk, as well as an increase in competition. <\/p>\n

#4- Oriental Weavers: <\/strong>The bank now sees the carpetmaker\u2019s target price rising to EGP 18.30 from a previous EGP 13.10, a 25% upside to current prices. Revenue forecast is up 18% to EGP 17.4 bn this year, and up 17% in 2024 to EGP 18.2 bn, \u201cdue to the higher than expected EGP depreciation.\u201d <\/p>\n

Downside risks: <\/strong>The bank believes that tougher competition, an increase in raw material prices, or export delays could hurt the company\u2019s performance. <\/p>\n

#5- GB Corp: <\/strong>The bank sees the company\u2019s target price increasing to EGP 9.40 a piece from its previous EGP 8.00, suggesting 46% upside from the current share price . GB Corp stands out as the only company for which the bank has trimmed its revenue forecast. HSBC now sees the company recording revenues of EGP 20.9 bn this year, down 34% from previous forecasts, and revenues of EGP 31.6 bn in 2024, down 12%. \u201cWe lower our volume estimates for 2023 for Egypt passenger cars and two wheelers due to supply shortages due to FX availability and import restriction.\u201d <\/p>\n

Downside risks: <\/strong>The bank cites a potential EGP devaluation as one of the downside risks of investing in GB Corp, seeing as it would result in price hikes, hurting sales in the process. It also zeroes in on supply and demand risks. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

HSBC is broadly bullish on EGX-listed consumer stocks and is most bullish on GB Corp<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":592226,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8987],"tags":[68,11008,72,164,490,338],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-592225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-egyptian-exchange","tag-egx","tag-egyptian-exchange","tag-enterpriseam","tag-equities","tag-hsbc","tag-retail","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0c2464e0-1245-478e-8d0f-6f89f71c3ede","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1233.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Here\u2019s what HSBC thinks about the EGX\u2019s top five consumer stocks","related_issue":[592212],"teaser":"HSBC is broadly bullish on EGX-listed consumer stocks and is most bullish on GB Corp","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/8\/.7c7f28eb-12ce-45ae-9026-a13f6f6b3e61.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nHSBC sees consumer stocks as an \u201cattractive sector in a challenged market\u201d - 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Qalaa had reportedly planned to list 30-40% of its portfolio company in the first\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "IPO"","block_context":{"text":"IPO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/business\/ipo-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/15.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563806,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/25\/only-5-companies-from-each-sector-to-be-included-in-egx-after-august-rebalancing\/","url_meta":{"origin":592225,"position":1},"title":"Only 5 companies from each sector to be included in EGX after August rebalancing","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"A maximum of five companies operating in each sector will be included on the EGX30 index, under new regulations set to take effect at the start of August with the index\u2019s latest rebalancing, the exchange said in a statement (pdf). The change aims to make the index more diverse and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Capital markets"","block_context":{"text":"Capital markets","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/capital-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/230.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550167,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/17\/the-middle-east-is-booming-just-ask-our-stock-exchanges\/","url_meta":{"origin":592225,"position":2},"title":"The Middle East is booming \u2014 just ask our stock exchanges","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"As macro-economic clouds have gathered around the world this year, the outlook in many places on everything (from growth and inflation to investments and returns) has darkened.Here in the Middle East, however, there are reasons for optimism, and much of it has to do with the dynamism of the region\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "A MESSAGE FROM HSBC"","block_context":{"text":"A MESSAGE FROM HSBC","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/a-message-from-hsbc\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/244.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":555768,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/25\/the-emerging-market-bears-are-massing\/","url_meta":{"origin":592225,"position":3},"title":"The emerging-market bears are massing","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 November 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"A quarter of investors surveyed by HSBC are bearish about investing in emerging markets, thanks to slowing economic growth and imminent monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, according to Reuters. Sentiment is low compared to an earlier survey, which found that only 10 investors were bearish about EMs. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564708,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/22\/what-does-it-mean-for-an-index-to-rebalance\/","url_meta":{"origin":592225,"position":4},"title":"What does it mean for an index to \u201crebalance\u201d?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Enterprise Explains: Index rebalancing. Last month, the Egyptian Exchange released new criteria for inclusion in the EGX30 in a bid to make the benchmark index more attractive to foreign investors. The new criteria came into effect on 1 February, which is when the first periodic rebalancing of each year typically\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GO WITH THE FLOW"","block_context":{"text":"GO WITH THE FLOW","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/go-with-the-flow\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599990,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/16\/expect-pick-up-in-real-estate-stocks-says-efg-hermes\/","url_meta":{"origin":592225,"position":5},"title":"Expect pick-up in real estate stocks, says EFG Hermes","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"So, which stocks should you pick? Look at real estate stocks this year, says EFG Hermes: 2019 will be a better year for real estate stocks after last year\u2019s squeeze, EFG Hermes Head of MENA Strategy Mohamed Al Hajj told Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 2:21). \u201cIf we see continued falling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/1\/1732.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=592225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592225\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/592212"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/592226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=592225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=592225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=592225"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=592225"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=592225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}