{"id":591925,"date":"2019-12-22T04:24:34","date_gmt":"2019-12-22T04:24:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-12-22T04:24:34","modified_gmt":"2019-12-22T04:24:34","slug":"enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of consensus we\u2019ve seen among economists we\u2019ve surveyed since March of this year. Pharos Holding, Shuaa Securities, Prime Holding, Beltone Financial, Renaissance Capital, EFG Hermes, and veteran economist Hany Tawfik all see the MPC keeping rates steady, while Signet, Sigma Capital, and HC Securities think we could see a rate cut.<\/p>\n

The CBE cut interest rates <\/strong>by 100 bps last month<\/a><\/strong>, bringing the overnight deposit rate to 12.25% and its lending rate to 13.25%. The main operation and discount rates were both cut to 12.75%.<\/p>\n

December inflation could accelerate, encouraging CBE to play it safe:<\/strong> The economists cited the slight increase in November\u2019s inflation rate \u2014 the first increase in six months \u2014 and largely expect inflation inflation to edge up again in December due to the dissipation of the favorable base effect. Inflation figures for December won\u2019t be out until after the MPC meets.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Where is inflation expected to stand?<\/strong> Pharos Holdings\u2019 head of research Radwa Elswaify expects December\u2019s annual inflation reading to come in at 6%. Shuaa Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed also sees a 6-6.5% inflation reading next month, and expects inflation to remain in that range in 1Q2020. Prime Holding Senior Economist Mona Bedeir sees inflation closing 2019 at c.7%, which she notes is below the central bank\u2019s initial targets of 9% (\u00b13%). Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh also says inflation will remain within the CBE\u2019s targets, particularly in light of the EGP\u2019s recent strengthening against the USD.<\/p>\n

Keeping rates on hold would be a strategic move for the CBE at this point in the easing cycle<\/strong>, before resuming the cuts as of 1Q2020, EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha says. By maintaining rates, the CBE will be able to better assess the impact of the three consecutive rate cuts it enacted earlier this year before exhausting its toolkit. Abu Basha also believes the CBE will be unwilling to act on interest rates without December and January\u2019s inflation data. Bedeir and Elswaify are of the same mind, saying that as the favorable base effect wears off, the CBE will be less able to accurately predict where December\u2019s inflation levels will come in. Bedair expects the central bank to deliver a total of 200-300 bps in rate cuts over the course of 2020, with a 100 bps cut in 1Q2020.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the Fed and rising oil prices to take into account:<\/strong> Elswaify also points to the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold<\/a> at its last meeting as a key factor for the CBE to keep in mind this week. Meanwhile, Ahmed notes that oil prices are heading towards USD 65 \/ bbl, which will likely push the central bank to favor keeping rates where they are.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not the hold we want, but it\u2019s the hold we need:<\/strong> \u201cI expect a hold, although I hope to see a 100 bps cut. The CBE will likely keep rates steady to maintain Egypt as an attractive destination for portfolio investors,\u201d Tawfik tells us. He sees this, not inflation rates, as the most important driver behind the MPC\u2019s upcoming decision. Tawfik expects around 300 bps in rate cuts throughout next year, including 75-100 bps in 1Q2020.<\/p>\n

Dissenters see enough room for a cut without upsetting the carry traders:<\/strong> Even with last month\u2019s uptick in inflation, \u201cEgypt still enjoys a very high and favorable real interest rate for portfolio investment,\u201d Sigma Capital\u2019s head of research Abu Bakr Emam says. \u201cWe expect increased inflows into the Egyptian debt market over the coming few months as it continues to offer high positive real interest rates compared to other emerging markets such as Turkey,\u201d HC Securities Chief Economist Monette Doss says. Emam and Doss both predict a 50 bps cut on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Gov\u2019t debt burden could also provide impetus for faster easing:<\/strong> Economic think tank Signet\u2019s Angus Blair says the pickup in inflation won\u2019t put much of a damper on the easing party, and expects the central bank to squeeze in a 100 bps cut. Blair points to the government needing lower interest rates to lower its debt burden and increase its fiscal maneuverability as a primary concern for the CBE.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of consensus we\u2019ve seen among economists […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":591926,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,72,349,724,2380,388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-591925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"cdb7c5b2-1d55-49db-aeba-590fe3d24408","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[591920],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEnterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. 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Respondents cited the inflationary effects of last weekend\u2019s fuel subsidy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567288,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/19\/against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":591925,"position":1},"title":"Against analyst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged when it met on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592825,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/07\/cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":591925,"position":2},"title":"CBE to make third consecutive rate cut next week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists predict CBE will make third consecutive rate cut next Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets a week from today, according to five of six economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":600793,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/11\/january-inflation-inches-up-economists-expect-rates-to-remain-steady-on-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":591925,"position":3},"title":"January inflation inches up, economists expect rates to remain steady on Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Expect the CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday after inflation rises slightly in January: Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate increased slightly to 12.7% in January compared to 12% the previous month, according to a central bank statement (pdf) out yesterday. Monthly inflation also rose to 0.4%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599519,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/02\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-at-final-mpc-meeting-of-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":591925,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged at final MPC meeting of 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, citing global monetary policy tightening, trade wars and volatility in the oil market. The bank\u2019s monetary policy committee left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, and also left on hold its main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576022,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/08\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-november-amid-covid-us-election-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":591925,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central bank to leave rates on hold in November amid covid, US election uncertainty","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- Rates seen left on hold amid covid, US election uncertainty: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely keep interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. Six of eight economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/591925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=591925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/591925\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/591920"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/591926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=591925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=591925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=591925"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=591925"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=591925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}