{"id":590804,"date":"2023-07-26T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T00:00:00","slug":"imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year"},"content":{"rendered":"

IMF holds Egypt growth outlook:<\/strong>The IMF left its 2023 growth forecast for Egypt unchanged in its latest projections released alongside its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a>. The Fund is still expecting growth to slow to 3.7% this year from 6.7% in 2022, a forecast initially made in April<\/a>. <\/p>\n

2024 growth downgraded:<\/strong> The Fund now expects the economy to expand at a 4.1% clip next year, down from its 5.0% forecast in April. \u201cThis lower growth in 2024 is mostly because of the lack of [foreign exchange rate] flexibility and the shortages that have developed in the FX market in Egypt, which is making it difficult for imports to happen. It also has dampened investor confidence,\u201d Petya Brooks, the deputy director of the IMF\u2019s research department, told reporters<\/a> yesterday. <\/p>\n

The IMF now expects inflation to remain 30%+ through 2024<\/strong>: <\/strong>The IMF is now projecting inflation to average 24.4% this year a nd rise further to 32% in 2024. This is a significant shift from its April forecast which saw inflation averaging 21.6% this year and slowing to 18.0% in 2024. \u201cA big part of that is because of the depreciation of the currency and all of this underpinning our advice to have policies which restore the macroeconomic balances,\u201d Brooks said. \u201cPerhaps the most important thing is to allow more flexibility in the FX market.\u201d <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Inflation accelerated at a record pace in June<\/a> as the impact of multiple currency devaluations combined with higher seasonal demand to send food prices soaring. Annual urban rate of inflation rose to 35.7% y-o-y during the month. <\/p>\n

THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK-<\/strong><\/p>\n

IMF gives slight upgrade to global forecast: <\/strong>The IMF revised upwards its 2023 global growth outlook by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0% from the 2.8% April forecast<\/a> in the report. Despite the revised figures, the forecast is significantly below 2022\u2019s 3.5% growth rate. <\/p>\n

No cause for celebration: <\/strong>The 2023 forecast \u201cremains weak by historical standards,\u201d the IMF wrote in the report. \u201cMany challenges still cloud the horizon, and it is too early to celebrate,\u201d IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in an accompanying blog post (pdf)<\/a>, noting that tighter financial conditions and higher inflation are weighing on global economic activity. \u201cStronger growth and lower inflation than expected are welcome news, suggesting the global economy is headed in the right direction. Yet, while some adverse risks have moderated, the balance remains tilted to the downside,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n

Inflation is coming down, slowly: <\/strong>The fund is now forecasting global headline inflation to fall to 6.8% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022. During its April forecast, the fund had predicted global inflation to fall to 7.0%. \u201cMonetary policy tightening is expected to gradually dampen inflation, but a central driver of the disinflation projected for 2023 is declining international commodity prices,\u201d the IMF wrote. Core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile food and energy prices \u2014 \u201cis proving more persistent than projected,\u201d it said, penciling in a 6.0% core rate for 2023, down from 6.5% last year. <\/p>\n

Sharp Saudi slowdown drags down MENA outlook: <\/strong>The IMF trimmed its MENA growth outlook by 0.5 percentage points, and now expects growth to slow to 2.6% this year from 5.4% in 2022. Growth estimates for 2024 were also downgraded to 3.2% from 3.4% in April. <\/p>\n

Why is Saudi going to grow slower? <\/strong>The IMF attributed the region\u2019s growth decline to a \u201csteeper-than-expected growth slowdown\u201d in Saudi Arabia, where GDP is expected to fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 1.9% this year due to its cuts to oil production. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fund expects growth to slow to 3.7% this year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":590805,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,272,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-590804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"db88caa3-3c4b-4a6a-b81c-f91cd46d3e2c","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1027.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year","related_issue":[590799],"teaser":"The Fund expects growth to slow to 3.7% this year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/10\/.91ea8d66-0465-4e9a-8dfb-175e73add067.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nIMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year - 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In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550050,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":590804,"position":2},"title":"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF expects more than a third of the global economy to contract \u201cthis year or next,\u201d it warns in its October World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday. The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559609,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/27\/egypts-gdp-to-grow-2-8-this-fy-imf-is-out-with-a-more-optimistic-global-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":590804,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s GDP to grow 2.8% this FY + IMF is out with a more optimistic global forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy will grow at a 2.8% clip in FY2020-2021, according to a Reuterspoll of economists. This is a downwards revision from the 3.3% growth economists predicted in the last poll the newswire conducted in October. The forecast sits at the lower end of the Finance Ministry\u2019s most recent GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/343.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579278,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/01\/imf-trims-egypt-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":590804,"position":4},"title":"IMF trims Egypt growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has cut its economic growth forecast for Egypt, saying it sees GDP growing 4.0% this year, a 0.4 percentage point trim from its previous forecast in October, according to its updated World Economic Outlook released yesterday (here and here, pdf). That\u2019s in line with forecasts from the Madbouly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/3.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542966,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/26\/egypt-bucks-the-trend-as-imf-downgrades-global-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":590804,"position":5},"title":"Egypt bucks the trend as IMF downgrades global growth","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF downgraded its projection for global growth in 2022 to 4.4% in its World Economic Outlook update, down 0.5 percentage points from its last outlook report in October. The lender sees growth slowing to 3.8% in 2023, noting that, although this forecast is 0.2 percentage points higher than its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/340.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=590804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590804\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/590799"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/590805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=590804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=590804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=590804"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=590804"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=590804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}