{"id":589916,"date":"2023-07-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/11\/inflation-soars-to-record-high-in-june\/"},"modified":"2023-07-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-soars-to-record-high-in-june","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/11\/inflation-soars-to-record-high-in-june\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation soars to record high in June"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>Inflation has never been higher: <\/span>Inflation accelerated at its fastest-ever rate in <\/span>June as<\/span> the impact of multiple currency devaluations combined with higher seasonal demand to send food prices soaring. The annual urban rate of inflation <\/span>rose to 35.7% y-o-y during the month, up from <\/span>32.7% in May<\/a><\/span>, according<\/span> t<\/span>o figures released on Mo<\/span>nday<\/span> by state statistics agency Capmas. <\/span><\/p>\n

A ray of sunshine? Maybe? <\/span>On a monthly basis, inflation slowed to <\/span>2.1% in June from 2.7%<\/span> the month before.<\/span><\/p>\n

The usual suspect:<\/span> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate inflation \u2014 accelerated to a record high of 65.9% y-o-y in June from 60.0% the month before.<\/span><\/p>\n

This was above analysts\u2019 expectations:<\/span> Analysts we spoke to yesterday had forecast inflation to accelerate at a slower rate, with Prime Securities penciling it in at 33% and economist Mona Bedeir <\/span>calling a 33.8%<\/span> rise in prices. <\/span><\/p>\n

Key drivers:<\/span> The higher-than-expected surge was \u201cdriven mainly by the high demand for core items in the food sector during Eid season,\u201d Bedeir told Enterprise yesterday. This was also due to \u201can unfavorable base effect coupled with the current underlying inflation pressures arising from the previous FX movements and the supply shortage in important commodities driven by the FX liquidity crisis,\u201d she added. <\/span><\/p>\n

Core inflation also moved higher:<\/span> Core inflation \u2014 which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel \u2014 accelerated to 41.0% in June from 40.3% the month before, according to <\/span>central bank figures<\/a><\/span>. Monthly core inflation slowed to 1.7% from 2.9% in May. <\/span>The central bank will publish its monthly note pointing at the causes behind the June inflation reading on Saturday, 15 July.<\/span><\/p>\n

LOOKING AHEAD-<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysts don\u2019t see inflation slowing down in the coming months. <\/span>Here\u2019s why:<\/span><\/p>\n

A fourth devaluation in September? <\/span>\u201cWe are expecting an FX movement in September coinciding with the combined first and second review of the IMF program but the scale of this movement is dependent on the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) ability to secure external buffers to smooth the potential fluctuation,\u201d said Bedair. <\/span><\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/span>Speculation among economists is that our USD 3 bn loan program with the IMF <\/span>will be at a turning point<\/a><\/span>in September. A first review of the program has been on hold since mid-March after we fell short on meeting several key conditions of the loan agreement.<\/span><\/p>\n

Electricity + fuel prices: <\/span>An expected increase in the <\/span>electricity tariff<\/a><\/span> as well as <\/span>the \u201ccatch up effect\u201d of the<\/span>recent increase in fuel prices<\/a><\/span> could also drive up inflation <\/span>in the coming months, she added. <\/span><\/p>\n

Where\u2019s the peak? <\/span>\u201cWe are expecting inflation to peak in July at above 35% assuming that there will be an increase in the electricity tariff this month,\u201d said Amr Elalfy, head of research at Prime Securities. Bedeir expects a peak in October following the review of the IMF program before inflation starts to subside. <\/span><\/p>\n

What\u2019s stopping us from raising interest rates to curb inflation? <\/span>The CBE is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on 3 August, as it did in its <\/span>June meeting<\/a><\/span>, according to three analysts we talked to yesterday including Elalfy and CI Capital veteran Hany Aboul Fotouh. \u201cRaising interest rates can effectively help in tamping inflation only when there\u2019s clear projections about the future of FX movements, which can only happen when we have enough FX liquidity,\u201d Bedeir said. Central bank governor Hassan Abdalla <\/span>said earlier this year<\/a><\/span> that additional rate hikes might not do much to slow inflation, which he said was being driven by supply-side factors. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eid spending drove price hikes above analysts\u2019 expectations<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":589917,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,271,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-589916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"869177c8-d101-4ffe-8c4e-f1c09a8c20bc","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/356.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egyptian inflation soars to record high in June","related_issue":[589909],"teaser":"Eid spending drove price hikes above analysts\u2019 expectations","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/7\/.211caeef-99f0-4d1c-9c6a-50b9f0908062.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation soars to record high in June - 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The headline urban rate climbed to 5.4%, up from 4.9% in June, as the government hiked fuel and electricity costs. Headline prices rose 0.9% on a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/401.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567942,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/13\/food-prices-drive-inflation-rate-to-five-month-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":589916,"position":5},"title":"Food prices drive inflation rate to five-month high","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month to 5.7% in November from 4.6% in October, according to Capmas figures (pdf) released on Thursday. The increase was driven by higher food prices, which single-handedly brought annual inflation to its highest since May. Monthly headline figures remained muted at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/220.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589916","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=589916"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589916\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/589909"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/589917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=589916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=589916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=589916"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=589916"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=589916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}