{"id":589635,"date":"2023-07-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-06T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/06\/flexible-exchange-rate-is-key-to-getting-out-of-our-bottleneck-iif-says\/"},"modified":"2023-07-06T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-06T00:00:00","slug":"flexible-exchange-rate-is-key-to-getting-out-of-our-bottleneck-iif-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/06\/flexible-exchange-rate-is-key-to-getting-out-of-our-bottleneck-iif-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Flexible exchange rate is key to getting out of our bottleneck, IIF says"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>Egypt financial situation \u201cprecarious\u201d -IIF:<\/span> A slowdown in imports during the <\/span>last fiscal year might h<\/span>ave eased some of the external pressures we face, but Egypt\u2019s finances remain in a \u201cprecarious\u201d position amid uncertainty over the future of its loan program with the IMF. That\u2019s accordi<\/span>ng to analysts at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), who wrote in a note<\/span> this week that adopting a flexible exchange rate will be key to resolving the imbalances and rebuilding reserves.<\/span><\/p>\n

What\u2019s the IIF, again? <\/span>It styles itself as the global industry association for the finance industry and counts commercial and investment banks, asset managers, sovereign wealth funds, hedgies and central banks (among others) as members.<\/span><\/p>\n

Multiple pressures: <\/span>The postponement of the IMF program, high external debt levels, twin fiscal and current account deficits, a deteriorating net foreign asset position, and portfolio outflows are all putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances.<\/span><\/p>\n

Remember:<\/span> The <\/span>USD 3 bn IMF assistance program<\/a><\/span> has been on hiatus since mid-March when the Fund postponed the first review due to the government\u2019s lack of progress floating the currency and selling state-owned assets.<\/span><\/p>\n

Import slowdown eases pressure:<\/span> Import restrictions in place through most of 2022 together with the series of currency devaluations caused a \u201clarge contraction\u201d in the volume of goods being brought into the country, easing pressure on the country\u2019s balance of payments. This helped the country generate its first current account surplus in almost nine years in 2Q FY2022-2023 and the IIF expects the deficit to have narrowed to 1.1% of GDP over the course of the fiscal year, from 3.5% in FY 2021-2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

FDI rebound:<\/span> The IIF expects a \u201clarge increase\u201d in foreign direct investment in FY 2023-2024 which will be key to financing the deficit in the absence of portfolio inflows.<\/span><\/p>\n

But vulnerabilities remain:<\/span>\u201cEgypt remains extremely vulnerable to external factors as well as to domestic structural bottlenecks,\u201d the analysts wrote. Expectations for slower global growth this year could dent revenues from exports, tourism, and the Suez Canal, while a recovery of imports would cause the trade balance to \u201cquickly deteriorate.\u201d The IIF expects these factors could cause the <\/span>current <\/span>account deficit to widen to around 1.7% of GDP this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

A flexible currency is key:<\/span> Adopting a fully flexible exchange rate and eliminating the parallel market is one of the adjustments policymakers will need to make to rebuild reserves, according to the report. \u201cAn additional devaluation could lower the trade deficit, constraining imports while boosting non-hydrocarbon exports, while also allowing remittances to recover to FY22 levels as the parallel and official rates converge, lowering financing needs,\u201d the analysts wrote.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Delayed IMF program, high debt levels, twin deficits and rising net foreign liabilities weighing on nation\u2019s finances<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":589636,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[7039,104,72,2234,272,3075],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-589635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-current-account","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-imf","tag-institute-of-international-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e83e3555-ce40-4135-bda6-891e843b60c3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/111.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Flexible 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works in the short term but isn\u2019t sustainable","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/9\/798.jpeg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594091,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/20\/central-bank-of-egypts-amer-promotes-reform-journey-in-iif-speech\/","url_meta":{"origin":589635,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Amer promotes reform journey in IIF speech","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s banking sector has a lot of upside potential \u2014 and the way forward is to continue enacting structural reforms,Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer said during a keynote speech at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) annual meeting in Washington (watch, runtime: 23:35). Amer noted that the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/345.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564559,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/14\/egypt-skated-past-covid-19-but-now-needs-to-double-down-on-deep-reforms-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":589635,"position":3},"title":"Egypt skated past covid-19, but now needs to double down on \u201cdeep\u201d reforms \u2013IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt weathered the worst of the pandemic as the only MENA country to see economic output contract last year, but authorities need to push on with \u201cdeep\u201d structural reforms to keep the momentum going in the long run, the Institute of International Finance said in a report cited by Gulf\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/446.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596214,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/21\/egyptian-economy-resilient-but-further-reform-needed-to-sustain-growth-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":589635,"position":4},"title":"Egyptian economy resilient, but further reform needed to sustain growth- IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Egyptian economy has proven resilient, but further reform is needed to sustain growth- IIF: Egypt is in a strong and \u201cresilient\u201d position three years after the start of the IMF-backed reform program, but there are still structural challenges to overcome to sustain economic growth, the Institute of International Finance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/622.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569800,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/08\/global-growth-could-fall-to-1-this-year-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":589635,"position":5},"title":"Global growth could fall to 1% this year -IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Global growth could fall to 1% this year -IIF: Global economic growth could fall to just 1% this year due to the impact of the covid-19 outbreak on the services and manufacturing sectors, the International Institute of Finance (IIF) has said. In a report published on Thursday, the financial association\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/88.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=589635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589635\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/589622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/589636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=589635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=589635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=589635"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=589635"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=589635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}