{"id":588918,"date":"2023-06-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/19\/hsbc-senior-economic-adviser-stephen-king-on-inflation-and-emerging-markets\/"},"modified":"2023-06-19T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T00:00:00","slug":"hsbc-senior-economic-adviser-stephen-king-on-inflation-and-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/19\/hsbc-senior-economic-adviser-stephen-king-on-inflation-and-emerging-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"HSBC senior economic adviser Stephen King on inflation and emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"\">Following his recent visit to the Middle East, HSBC spoke to its senior economic advisor and <\/span><span style=\"\">author Stephen King for his thoughts <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">on the global and regional economic outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">How is inflation in developed markets impacting on emerging markets?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Inflationary pressures on emerging markets depend on the causes of the inflation in developed markets. Higher energy prices, for example, are a global phenomenon so are likely to raise inflation across the world. However, a domestic-rooted spike in inflation in a developed economy will most likely affect emerging markets because of the impact of tighter US or European monetary policy on the exchange rate. A stronger USD or EUR implies higher prices of imports for those emerging markets with flexible currencies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">What do you think is the biggest contributor to inflation in emerging markets? Is it the increase in money supply or external shocks? And what\u2019s the best way to combat it?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Emerging market inflation varies from the very low \u2014 for instance, China \u2014 to the very high, such as Argentina and T\u00fcrkiye. China's slow emergence from the covid-19 pandemic alongside a reluctance to offer policy stimulus on a scale equivalent to that seen in the West explains why inflation there has been muted. Elsewhere, a reluctance to raise interest rates (or even to cut rates when inflation was already high) alongside a relaxed approach to exchange rate valuations has helped stoke inflationary pressures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Whatever the cause of the inflation, one necessary response is usually that monetary policy will have to be tightened. \u201cSecond-round effects,\u201d such as higher wage demands or bigger price increases can stem from faster growth in the money supply or higher energy and food prices. National governments, central banks and regulators cannot rely on hopes that external pressures will ease and carry no adverse inflationary consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">How important is fiscal policy \/ balance of payments (especially when a country suffers a current account deficit) in the context of inflation?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Going back to the first question, a country with a large external funding requirement \u2014 revealed via a large current account deficit \u2014 may be vulnerable if the cost of borrowing is rising elsewhere. If, for example, the US is raising interest rates, capital flows that might easily have gone to an emerging market with a large external deficit might now head to the US. The result is likely to be downward pressure on the emerging market currency, increasing the risk of higher imported inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">How sticky will inflation be going forward?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Persistently high, \u2018sticky\u2019 inflation is already greater than central banks anticipated. Many central bankers feared deflation more than inflation, thinking for too long that we were living in a Japan-style world of falling prices. Continued stickiness depends on whether policymakers have the appetite to tighten policy sufficiently to squeeze inflation out of the system. There is concern about the consequences for the \u201creal economy\u201d and for financial stability, although alternative remedies \u2014 such as price and wage controls \u2014 have a checkered history. As such, some policymakers are simply hoping that inflation will go away, in the anticipation that so-called \u201csecond round\u201d effects will not materialize.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">How risky are devaluation-inflation and wage-price spirals for emerging markets?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">It depends on the condition the emerging market is in, and those with independent central banks are likely to fare better. So too are those markets with small current account deficits or large surpluses, as are those with healthy fiscal positions that have enough \u201cspace\u201d to raise taxes or cut spending and which don't have too much in the way of indexation of either prices or wages. Resorting to the \u201cprinting press\u201d to solve a fiscal problem is problematic, as history and more recent examples across the world have demonstrated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Those countries with robust currency pegs will likely fare well \u2014 they have a tried and tested monetary policy. For many countries in the MENAT region, this is very good news. Because of the Federal Reserve's actions and the USD pegs, monetary conditions have become tighter, however, regional economies are in many cases strong enough to cope.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\">Stephen King (<\/span><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/stephen-king-472a0733\" style=\"\">LinkedIn<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\">) is HSBC\u2019s senior economic adviser and author of We Need To Talk About Inflation: 14 urgent lessons from the last 2000 years (Yale University Press). HSBC\u2019s column appears in Enterprise every second Monday.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Following his recent visit to the Middle East, HSBC spoke to its senior economic advisor and author Stephen King for his thoughts on the global and regional economic outlook. How is inflation in developed markets impacting on emerging markets? Inflationary pressures on emerging markets depend on the causes of the inflation in developed markets. Higher [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":588919,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7351],"tags":[2284,104,115,72,490,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-588918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-message-from-hsbc","tag-a-message-from-hsbc","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-hsbc","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0688ab9b-3781-4b2e-8d9c-90d6c1dfccbf","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/884.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"HSBC senior economic adviser Stephen King on inflation and emerging markets","related_issue":[588902],"teaser":"","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/6\/.e379fa77-3c7b-471b-a41f-4b0121fa208c.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>HSBC senior economic adviser Stephen King on inflation and emerging markets - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/19\/hsbc-senior-economic-adviser-stephen-king-on-inflation-and-emerging-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"HSBC senior economic adviser Stephen King on inflation and emerging markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Following his recent visit to the Middle East, HSBC spoke to its senior economic advisor and author Stephen King for his thoughts on the global and regional economic outlook. 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Sentiment is low compared to an earlier survey, which found that only 10 investors were bearish about EMs. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PLANET FINANCE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":580604,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/what-will-impact-emerging-markets-in-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":588918,"position":1},"title":"What will impact emerging markets in 2023?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Last year was a tough one for emerging markets. What will 2023 bring? Emerging markets had a rough ride last year. Aggressive monetary tightening led by the US Federal Reserve combined with inflation and commodities shocks to bring currency woes, losses in stocks and bonds, and even debt defaults for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Macro picture&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/620.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554065,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/19\/inflation-officially-isnt-transitory-anymore\/","url_meta":{"origin":588918,"position":2},"title":"Inflation officially isn\u2019t transitory anymore","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Scrap the \u201ctransitory\u201d talk: Inflation is now \u201cpersistent,\u201d according to the world\u2019s most influential central banks, who cemented their hawkish turn in last week\u2019s final policy meetings of the year, the Financial Times reports. The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank slashed covid-era asset purchases at their respective meetings,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PLANET FINANCE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592874,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/11\/attractive-bond-real-yield-rates-are-drawing-investors-to-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":588918,"position":3},"title":"Attractive bond real yield rates are drawing investors to Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"With inflation dipping again, Egypt\u2019s real yield is still attractive to EM bond investors: Egypt is among the world\u2019s most promising markets when it comes to the real interest rate on our bonds, topping an index for inflation-adjusted returns with a real yield of 9.42%, Bloomberg reports. According to the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2612.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577774,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/05\/growing-internationally-with-metito\/","url_meta":{"origin":588918,"position":4},"title":"Growing internationally with Metito","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Metito, a leading sustainability business, is able to unlock large scale circular water projects in MENA via sustainability-linked funding from HSBC: The world\u2019s natural water resources are facing an unprecedented challenge. The global rate of water consumption has grown twice as fast as the world population in the last century,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;A MESSAGE FROM HSBC&quot;","block_context":{"text":"A MESSAGE FROM HSBC","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/a-message-from-hsbc\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":674902,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/05\/efg-hermes-taps-christopher-laing-to-lead-equity-capital-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":588918,"position":5},"title":"EFG Hermes taps Christopher Laing to lead equity capital markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 November 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Liang boasts 30 years of expertise, having held senior roles at Deutsche Bank and HSBC","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Moves&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Moves","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/newsmakers\/moves\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/1497.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/588918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=588918"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/588918\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/588902"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/588919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=588918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=588918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=588918"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=588918"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=588918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}