{"id":588821,"date":"2023-06-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/18\/cbe-needs-usd-5-bn-for-orderly-currency-float-goldman\/"},"modified":"2023-06-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-06-18T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-needs-usd-5-bn-for-orderly-currency-float-goldman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/18\/cbe-needs-usd-5-bn-for-orderly-currency-float-goldman\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE needs USD 5 bn for orderly currency float -Goldman"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Egypt is going to need some USD 5 bn in FX for an orderly EGP float:<\/span><span style=\"\"> That\u2019s <\/span><span>the c<\/span><span>onclusion of Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa after meeting with <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">local policymakers, analysts, and local market players during a trip to Cairo earlier this month. \u201cThe view in Cairo is that the CBE requires a war chest of around USD 5 bn in unencumbered FX reserves which it can deploy to manage an orderly transition to a more flexible FX regime,\u201d Farouk Soussa wrote in the note last Monday. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">This is going to be \u201cchallenging\u201d:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> \u201cGiven our cautious view on prospects for asset sales in the medium term, we believe it will be challenging for the authorities to accumulate sufficient FX buffers for an orderly transition to greater FX stability,\u201d Soussa wrote.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Remember:<\/span><span> Transitioning to a fully flexible exchange rate was a key condition of the <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/c374319e-e849-44f6-bf5a-8179fb41caf5\" style=\"\">IMF program<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">. The Fund was due to carry out the first review in mid-March but has postponed it amid a lack of progress in meeting several of its key commitments, namely the currency float and raising bns of USD via sales of state-owned assets. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">El Sisi seemed to rule out a currency float last week<\/span><span>, telling an audience that <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/5ab95629-ba7e-4b1e-bcb2-64d1dcf28946\" style=\"\">further flexibility will not be allowed<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> if it damages the country\u2019s national security and its people. Authorities have devalued the currency three times in the past year, which has seen it lose almost half its value against the USD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Where does all this leave the program? Goldman sees two paths ahead:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">The central bank goes ahead with a currency float without a stock of FX, risking a \u201csignificant\u201d devaluation;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">The IMF program remains on hiatus while the Fund waits for authorities to move on the currency, \u201cwith risks to programme continuity.\u201d Goldman doesn\u2019t believe that the Fund will be willing to compromise on currency flexibility.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Good news \/ bad news: <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;font-weight:700;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/a94808c5-7a0c-4027-a786-804f2dc35954\" style=\"\">Privatization<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\"> will continue but the pace will be slow.<\/span><span> The investment bank is expecting \u201csome asset sales\u201d to take place over the coming weeks though says that the pace of the program will remain \u201cmodest given structural impediments.\u201d The government is targeting generating USD 2 bn from asset sales by the end of June and has so far received around <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/5ad4a99f-deb2-4803-b601-ad806b96f074\" style=\"\">USD 153 mn<\/a><\/span><span> from its sales of Pachin and a 10% stake in Telecom Egypt. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Muddling through:<\/span><span> While a slower pace of the state-asset sales coupled with scarce FX might increase the risk to external creditors, Soussa believes that a \u201cmuddle-through scenario is most likely\u201d to take place. Low commercial external debt, a willingness to pay. and a low likelihood of social instability will all lower the risks, he writes.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt is unlikely to obtain the amount of FX needed for an orderly deval, says the investment bank<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":588822,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,2234,260,587],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-588821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-state-privatization-program","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e71ac9b0-4970-4caa-9a5c-f210bec6715a","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/825.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt needs USD 5 bn for orderly currency float  -Goldman","related_issue":[588816],"teaser":"Egypt is unlikely to obtain the amount of FX needed for an orderly deval, says the investment bank","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/6\/.00b745ae-9d25-4a5e-b01b-668f5991dbbc.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CBE needs USD 5 bn for orderly currency float -Goldman - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/18\/cbe-needs-usd-5-bn-for-orderly-currency-float-goldman\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CBE needs USD 5 bn for 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rates by as much as 50 bps at its meeting later this month, Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg (watch, runtime 7:12). \u201cWe see a very strong case for rate cuts in the near term, as in June.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/64.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":616058,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/28\/devaluation-unlikely-to-be-inflationary-says-goldman-sachs\/","url_meta":{"origin":588821,"position":1},"title":"Devaluation unlikely to be inflationary, says Goldman Sachs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 February 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Officials told Goldman Sachs that they expect an IMF agreement to be announced \u201cin the coming days\u201d","rel":"","context":"In 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&quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/1407.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571089,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/29\/still-up-2-against-the-usd-for-the-year-reuters-wonders-whether-egps-coronavirus-immunity-could-wane\/","url_meta":{"origin":588821,"position":3},"title":"Still up 2% against the USD for the year, Reuters wonders whether EGP\u2019s \u201ccoronavirus immunity\u201d could \u201cwane.\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Still up 2% against the USD for the year, Reuters wonders whether EGP\u2019s \u201ccoronavirus immunity\u201d could \u201cwane.\u201d The EGP \u201chas been a rare riser among emerging market currencies beaten down by the coronavirus fallout, but pressure is growing on it to weaken,\u201d Reuterssuggests after speaking with analysts and bankers. Where\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550466,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/30\/icymi-taweem-3-0-imf-loan-rate-hike-and-more\/","url_meta":{"origin":588821,"position":4},"title":"ICYMI: Taweem 3.0, IMF loan, rate hike, and more","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"What the [redacted] happened on Thursday? The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) at the end of last week went ahead with a series of measures to restore liquidity to the FX market and revive investor confidence in the economy \u2014 and topped it off by announcing a USD 3 bn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/369.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":614958,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/11\/goldman-sachs-calls-for-egypt-to-build-liquidity-buffers-and-curb-fx-demand-before-devaluation\/","url_meta":{"origin":588821,"position":5},"title":"Goldman Sachs calls for Egypt to build liquidity buffers and curb FX demand before devaluation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 February 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s policy objectives are unlikely to be achieved without further policy tightening and sufficient FX liquidity buffers ahead of a devaluation, the bank said","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/786.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/588821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=588821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/588821\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/588816"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/588822"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=588821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=588821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=588821"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=588821"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=588821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}