{"id":588365,"date":"2023-06-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/11\/inflation-returns-to-acceleration-in-may\/"},"modified":"2023-06-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-06-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-returns-to-acceleration-in-may","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/11\/inflation-returns-to-acceleration-in-may\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation returns to acceleration in May"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span> Inflation returns to near record highs after April\u2019s brief respite:<\/span> Annual urban <\/span>inflation rose to 32.7% y-o-y in May <\/span>from 30.6% the month before<\/a><\/span>, according to <\/span>figures released on Saturday<\/span> by state statistics agency Capmas. The May reading marks a return to the <\/span>near record high inflation<\/a><\/span> recorded in March before price hikes briefly cooled in April. Inflation is now once again at its highest since July 2017, when it hit an all-time high of nearly 33%. <\/span><\/p>\n

Analysts expected inflation to rise \u2014 but not so steeply: <\/span>The median forecast in a R<\/span>euters poll of 13 analysts was for inflation to rise to <\/span>31.4%<\/a><\/span>. Economists were expecting prices to have risen last month thanks in part to the government\u2019s recent decisions to hike the prices of <\/span>diesel<\/a><\/span>and <\/span>subsidized commodities<\/a><\/span> sold to ration card holders.<\/span>April\u2019s breather came on the back of a favorable base effect, the stabilization of the USD-EGP exchange rate, and a slight slowdown in food price growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Food inflation came in hot:<\/span> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest component of the basket <\/span>of goods and services used to calculate inflation \u2014 accelerated to 60.0% y-o-y in May from 54.7% the month before, approaching the territory of the all-time high of 62.9% recorded in March. <\/span>The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has not yet released last month\u2019s figures on core inflation, which is often seen as a superior measure of price growth because it strips out volatile items such as food and fuel. <\/span><\/p>\n

Monthly inflation also rose to 2.7% in May<\/span> \u2014 up from 1.7% the month before and matching <\/span>the figure in March. <\/span><\/p>\n

Expect more of the same: <\/span>Many economists are expecting inflation to remain high as the hik<\/span>es to diesel and subsidized food combine with higher demand for key commodities including meat on the back of Eid Al Adha at the end of the month. CI Capital in April predicted inflation to \u201cresume its upward trajectory over the coming months\u201d to average 30-32% in 1H 2023, while Capital Economics last week told Reuters the headline rate would hover around 31-32% for \u201cthe next few months.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Complicating matters: The chance of further currency depreciation. <\/span>Inflation could rise<\/span> as high as 37% in 3Q 2023 if the EGP weakens further against the USD, <\/span>Goldman Sachs\u2019 Farouk Soussa is quoted as telling <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span>. The USD-EGP rate has remained at 30.90 since the middle of March and some analysts now aren\u2019t expecting any movement until at least September. We have more on the latest predictions for the exchange rate in What We\u2019re Tracking Today, above. <\/span><\/p>\n

As always, higher inflation may mean higher rates: <\/span>The hotter reading may put pressure o<\/span>n the CBE to raise interest rates when it next meets to review interest rates on 22 June, Reuters notes. The CBE\u2019s monetary policy committee <\/span>left rates unchanged<\/a><\/span> at its last meeting in May, saying it would continue to assess the impact of the 1k-bps worth of rate hikes implemented in the past 15 months. That said, analysts including Bloomberg chief EM economist Ziad Daoud have suggested we won\u2019t see movement on rates unless and until the currency depreciates further. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Food and beverage inflation rose to 60% y-o-y<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":588366,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,2234,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-588365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"45243304-a209-49cc-a046-caa6d769cb01","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/486.jpg","photo_position":"below","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egyptian inflation rises to 32.7% in May after cooling in April","related_issue":[588360],"teaser":"Food and beverage inflation rose to 60% y-o-y","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/6\/.0225f4fc-162a-43b5-b658-3f57260924ca.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation returns to acceleration in May - 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