{"id":586992,"date":"2023-05-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-21T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/21\/cbe-holds-interest-rates-steady\/"},"modified":"2023-05-21T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-05-21T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-holds-interest-rates-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/21\/cbe-holds-interest-rates-steady\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE holds interest rates steady"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\"> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday<\/span><span style=\"\"> after inflation <\/span><span style=\"\">eased slightly in April, it said in <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1076.pdf\" style=\"\">a statement (pdf)<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\"> following its policy meeting<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the deposit rate at 18.25%, the lending rate at 19.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 18.75%. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The rationale:<\/span><span style=\"\"> The CBE said it would hold rates as it continues<\/span><span style=\"\"> to assess the impact of the 1k-bps worth of rate hikes implemented in the past 15 months \u2014 including the <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d48e529f-df57-429c-ac77-650747100ba1\" style=\"\">large 200-bps increase<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\"> the MPC made at its last meeting in March \u2014 as well as the <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/8cbe8656-38d2-4f13-864a-26e3fccc24fa\" style=\"\">400-bps increase<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> it made in September to the required reserve ratio for banks. The MPC statement said its decision was informed by cooling global and domestic inflation on the back of lower energy prices and better supply chain conditions, as well as the \u201cearly signs of economic activity slowdown\u201d at home. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">REMEMBER- Inflation eased for the first time<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\"> in 10 months in April<\/span><span style=\"\">, <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e8b89cdc-cf1e-4a57-bcf6-75cf185240d0\" style=\"\">inching down t<\/a><\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e8b89cdc-cf1e-4a57-bcf6-75cf185240d0\" style=\"\">o 30.6%<\/a><\/span><span> y-o-y from <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/fed48338-9c78-413e-93c0-e2bc59f52ec4\" style=\"\">32.7% the month before<\/a><\/span><span>, thanks to a favorable base effect, the stabilization of the EGP-USD exchange rate, and a slight slowdown in food price inflation. Consumer prices are widely expected to pick up again in the coming months on the back of an anticipated devaluation, price hikes for<\/span><span><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d7838294-91d2-44d0-950c-e2af219a8d6f\" style=\"\"><\/a><\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d7838294-91d2-44d0-950c-e2af219a8d6f\" style=\"\">diesel<\/a><\/span><span> and<\/span><span><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/49f88f6c-09a1-4f2c-99f0-db2e4bf962a4\" style=\"\"><\/a><\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/49f88f6c-09a1-4f2c-99f0-db2e4bf962a4\" style=\"\">subsidized commodities<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">, and seasonal factors including the upcoming Eid.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The CBE\u2019s move was expected: <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d2ee5761-7094-40ab-9544-885d03f42d29\" style=\"\">Seven of 10 analysts<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\"> in our <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e063fd73-c419-4c91-ba42-b7a3ab699ab4\" style=\"\">poll<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\">predicted the decision, <\/span><span style=\"\">explaining that April\u2019s cooler inflation reading giv<\/span><span>es the CBE the room to assess the impact of earlier hikes and avoid raising the cost of public borrowing. Eight of 11 economists in a <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-18\/egypt-hits-pause-on-interest-rate-hikes-as-focus-turns-to-pound\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/span><span>poll also saw policymakers holding rates steady. CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla last month <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/7c21c86c-40a9-40f1-8e97-0dc7f259a895\" style=\"\">voiced caution<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> over any further hikes, saying other policy measures may be needed to rein in price hikes and address supply bottlenecks that have pressured imports. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The CBE\u2019s next interest rate move could depend on the FX rate:<\/span><span style=\"\"> \u201cI think the key thing is <\/span><span>what's happening with the currency issue,\u201d Bloomberg chief EM economist <\/span><span>Ziad Daoud<\/span><span> told Bloomberg TV (<\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2023-05-19\/egypt-hits-pause-on-rate-hikes-video\" style=\"\">watch, runtime: 6:59<\/a><\/span><span>), suggesting that the central bank could hike rates if inflation is spurred once more by a further depreciation of the EGP. \u201cUntil Egypt resolves it and does the next round of devaluation, they\u2019ll probably hold rates,\u201d he added. <\/span><span style=\"\">Arqaam Capital\u2019s Zeina Rizk told <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-18\/egypt-hits-pause-on-interest-rate-hikes-as-focus-turns-to-pound\" style=\"\">B<\/a><\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-18\/egypt-hits-pause-on-interest-rate-hikes-as-focus-turns-to-pound\" style=\"\">loomberg<\/a><\/span><span> ahead of Thursday\u2019s decision that p<\/span><span>olicymakers<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> \u201cshould continue hiking, but it should come in tandem with a devaluation.\u201d The EGP hasn\u2019t moved against the USD since mid-March after losing more than half of its value against the greenback in the past year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">EGP WATCH-<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">EGP rallies on black market amid dampened USD demand: <\/span><span style=\"\">The EGP has gained 12% on <\/span><span>the parallel market over the past week to come in at 37 to the USD on Thursday, up from 42 the previous Friday, <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-18\/egyptian-pound-rises-on-black-market-amid-muted-dollar-demand#xj4y7vzkg\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> reports. The upturn comes on the back of weakened demand for the greenback, triggered in part by requests from the Egyptian Automotive Dealers Association to its members to stop buying from the black market, the news outlet reports.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The next deval is looking increasingly distant:<\/span><span> The EGP\u2019s one-month non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) gained 2.4% to about 31.8 to the USD on Thursday \u2014 its strongest since 2 March and down from a record high of 35.3 on 25 April \u2014 <\/span><span>suggesting that traders see the local currency <\/span><span>falling at a softer pace than previously thought. The official exchange rate has sat at <\/span><span>30<\/span><span>.96<\/span><span> since 12 March.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rates could soon resume their upward trajectory as inflation picks up<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":586993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-586992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"45817abc-65e2-4227-9713-a90f5d5cd66a","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1101.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Central Bank of Egypt holds interest rates steady","related_issue":[586987],"teaser":"Rates could soon resume their upward trajectory as inflation picks up","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/5\/.d4b426e0-6af2-4dd7-81a3-ade7b47446fc.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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The overnight deposit rate was held steady at 18.75% while the overnight lending rate was kept the same at 19.75%. Annual urban headline inflation rate increased to 33% in July on account of numerous subsidy cuts and a slight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":586992,"position":1},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":620711,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/05\/26\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":586992,"position":2},"title":"CBE leaves interest rates unchanged in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The MPC cited a slowdown in growth rates and cooling inflation","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/1967.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556550,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/31\/egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":586992,"position":3},"title":"Egypt leaves rates on hold as CBE eyes Fed taper, inflation,","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting on Thursday amid rising global inflation and expectations the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus program by the end of the year. 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