{"id":586437,"date":"2023-05-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/11\/inflation-took-a-month-off-in-april\/"},"modified":"2023-05-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-05-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-took-a-month-off-in-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/11\/inflation-took-a-month-off-in-april\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation took a month off in April"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Inflation eased for the first time in 10 months in April<\/span><span style=\"\"> thanks to a favorable base <\/span><span>effect, the stabilization of the EGP-USD exchange rate, and a slight <\/span><span style=\"\">slowdown in <\/span><span>food price growth. Figures released on Wednesday by state <\/span><span>statistics agency Capmas<\/span><span> showed that annual urban inflation decelerated to 30.6% y-o-y <\/span><span>in April<\/span><span> from <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/fed48338-9c78-413e-93c0-e2bc59f52ec4\" style=\"\">32.7% the month before<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">. Monthly inflation also slipped to 1.7% in April from 2.7% the month before.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">This was expected:<\/span><span style=\"\"> The median forecast in a poll of economists by <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/africa\/egyptian-inflation-seen-inching-lower-april-2023-05-08\/\" style=\"\">Reuters<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\"> released on <\/span><span>Monday saw inflation coming in at 31.0% in April. Last month\u2019s reading also came in line with estimates by analysts at <\/span><span>EFG Hermes Research<\/span><span> and <\/span><span>CI Capital Research<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Food inflation down from record high:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest component <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">of the basket of goods and services used to calculate inflation \u2014 decelerated to 54.7% y-o-y in April, down from an all-time high of 62.9% in March.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Core inflation also weakened:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Core inflation \u2014 often seen as a superior measure <\/span><span>of price growth because it strips out volatile items such as food and fuel \u2014 slipped to 38.6% y-o-y from 39.5% in March, according to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbe.org.eg\/en\/news-publications\/news\/2023\/05\/10\/13\/39\/cpi-press-release-april-2023\" style=\"\">central bank data<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">. On a monthly basis, core inflation weakened to 1.7% from 2.4% in March. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">A temporary reprieve: <\/span><span style=\"\">Price hikes are expected to accelerate again as soon as this month due <\/span><span>to the government\u2019s recent decisions to hike the prices of <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d7838294-91d2-44d0-950c-e2af219a8d6f\" style=\"\">diesel<\/a><\/span><span> and <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/49f88f6c-09a1-4f2c-99f0-db2e4bf962a4\" style=\"\">subsidized commodities<\/a><\/span><span> sold to ration card holders as well further currency weakness, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">EFG Hermes<\/span><span> Research\u2019s head of macroeconomic analysis, <\/span><span>Mohamed Abu Basha<\/span><span>, wrote yesterday. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">CI Capital<\/span><span> is predicting inflation to \u201cresume its upward trajectory over the coming months\u201d to average of 30-32% in 1H 2023 \u201con the implementation of deeper fiscal reforms\u201d including the diesel price hike and a potential <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/1a007c4f-8355-4433-af05-6c99e2f7418c\" style=\"\">increase<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> in household electricity prices come the new fiscal year. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">What happens to the EGP will be key: <\/span><span style=\"\">The widening gap between the value of the EGP on <\/span><span>the parallel market and its official rate indicates that the central bank might opt for another devaluation, which would once again ramp up inflationary pressures, <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-10\/egypt-s-inflation-ends-nine-month-surge-by-taking-short-breather?srnd=premium-middle-east&leadSource=uverify%20wall\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/span><span> reports. The EGP has fallen to a new low against the greenback in the black market in recent days, with <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/44SBJl1\" style=\"\">reports<\/a><\/span><span> of the currency switching hands at 40.0 to the USD. The official exchange rate has remained unchanged since mid-March following three devaluations that have caused the EGP to more than halve in value against the greenback. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">What does it mean for interest rates?<\/span><span style=\"\"> Abu Basha expects April\u2019s cooler inflation reading to <\/span><span>give the central bank the chance to keep rates on hold at its next meeting on Thursday, 18 May. By contrast, CI Capital is penciling in 100-bps worth of hikes across the committee\u2019s next two meetings. The CBE has raised interest rates by 1000 bps over the past year after delivering a jumbo <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d48e529f-df57-429c-ac77-650747100ba1\" style=\"\">200-bps rate hike<\/a><\/span><span> in March.<\/span><span style=\"\"> CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla last month <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/7c21c86c-40a9-40f1-8e97-0dc7f259a895\" style=\"\">expressed doubts<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> on the effectiveness of monetary policy to curb inflation, and said that policymakers need to be \u201cvery careful\u201d about tightening policy further.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">** We\u2019ll be out with our customary interest rate poll on Sunday <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">ahead of Thursday\u2019s central bank meeting.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation eased for the first time in 10 months in April thanks to a favorable base effect, the stabilization of the EGP-USD exchange rate, and a slight slowdown in food price growth. Figures released on Wednesday by state statistics agency Capmas showed that annual urban inflation decelerated to 30.6% y-o-y in April from 32.7% the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":586438,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,2234,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-586437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e8b89cdc-cf1e-4a57-bcf6-75cf185240d0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/581.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt inflation eases to 30.6% in April","related_issue":[586429],"teaser":"","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/5\/.f17f6a2d-d260-434a-a71d-296f26558c6d.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation took a month off in April - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/11\/inflation-took-a-month-off-in-april\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation took a month off in April\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation eased for the first time in 10 months in April thanks to a favorable base effect, the stabilization of the EGP-USD exchange rate, and a slight slowdown in food price growth. 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