{"id":586363,"date":"2023-05-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/10\/heres-the-governments-fiscal-plan-for-fy-2023-2024\/"},"modified":"2023-05-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-05-10T00:00:00","slug":"heres-the-governments-fiscal-plan-for-fy-2023-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/10\/heres-the-governments-fiscal-plan-for-fy-2023-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s the government\u2019s fiscal plan for FY 2023-2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Our first proper look at the new budget:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Yesterday we got our first look at the <\/span><span>Madbouly government\u2019s spending plans and fiscal projections for FY 2023-2024 as Finance <\/span><span>Minister Mohamed Maait delivered his <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EgyptianCabinet\/posts\/pfbid0xxKv9A9PCoavw6JbB5vSoWFB5Y1P1ZrYLxvFC5ZYp6emTFN56nRxUA24RUtKR1vcl\" style=\"\">budget statement<\/a><\/span><span> to the House. The minister announced <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">new support measures for households and businesses<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> struggling through an economic crisis \u2014 and sought to reassure MPs that the economy remains on an even footing amid anxieties over inflation and the ongoing foreign exchange crunch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Here\u2019s how the government sees things playing out over FY 2023-2024<\/span><span>, according to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/543.pdf\" style=\"\">the draft budget (pdf)<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">THE MACRO PICTURE-<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Growth will be flat:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> Economic growth will inch down to 4.1% in the coming fiscal year from a projected 4.2% in FY 2022-2023 and 6.6% last year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Egypt to outperform the global economy, says El Said:<\/span><span>Though the projected <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">growth rate is below the initial 5% forecasts, it remains above the 2.8% forecasted for the global economy, Planning Minister Hala El Said told MPs while delivering her statement on the FY 2023-2024 socioeconomic development plan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">REMEMBER- <\/span><span>The <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e1da5dd4-43a7-4570-8c3e-1dbbb48df72e\" style=\"\">IMF last month penciled<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> in a 2.8% global growth rate for 2023, down from the 3.4% in 2022, on the back of a slowdown in advanced economies. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Price growth will slow, but we\u2019re still looking at significant inflation:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> Headline inflation will average 16.0% over the 12-month period, down from a projected 19.6% this year, according to the document. Inflation has hit its highest levels in more than five years this year thanks to the combination of currency devaluation and high commodity prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Oil + wheat prices to ease:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>The government sees <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Brent crude prices<\/span><span> averaging <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">USD 80 per barrel<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> from July 2023 through to June 2024. This is down from USD 94 \/ barrel this fiscal year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Wheat prices<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> are expected to remain significantly above pre-2021 levels, with US wheat averaging USD 240 per ton over the 12-month period. This is down from USD 424 \/ ton this year, which saw global prices surge on the back of the disruption caused by the war in Ukraine.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">THE DEFICIT-<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">This year:<\/span><span> The government now sees the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">budget deficit<\/span><span> finishing the current fiscal year at 6.4%, up from<\/span><span> 6.1% <\/span><span>in FY 2021-2022. The government had initially targeted a 6.1% deficit in this year\u2019s budget, which was revised to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/a82891c1-0dbe-4897-84fd-f8e2073fab1f\" style=\"\">6.8%<\/a><\/span><span> in March. Meanwhile, the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">primary surplus<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> will inch up to 1.5% from 1.3% last year. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">And the next:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> The government expects the deficit to widen to 7.0% and the primary surplus to increase to 2.5% in FY 2023-2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Additional borrowing this year has given us two deficit figures:<\/span><span> The budget forecasts an \u201cadjusted budget deficit\u201d of 8.0% this year. This a<\/span><span>ccounts for the <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/a4e851ef-ce4f-496a-9a63-3dab20ccb053\" style=\"\">EGP 165 bn in fresh borrowing<\/a><\/span><span>approved in March<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> to cover debt service and the latest round of wage and pension hikes in the final quarter of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">MONEY IN, MONEY OUT-<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The taxman expects to have a very good 2023-2024:<\/span><span> Revenues will<\/span><span> rise 41% t<\/span><span>o EGP 2.14 tn in the upcoming fiscal year, up from an estimated EGP 1.52 tn this year. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Most of this is thanks to higher tax receipts, which are projected to <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">rise 31%<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\"> EGP 1.53 tn<\/span><span>, though non-tax revenues will<\/span><span> also increase 75% to<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> EGP 610 bn, almost double that of the past three years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Privatization to bring in almost USD 2.3 bn next year:<\/span><span> The government expects to bring in EGP 70 bn (USD 2.26 bn) through its privatization program next year, <\/span><span style=\"\">under whic<\/span><span style=\"\">h it<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> hopes to sell stakes in many of the nearly three dozen companies in the privatization program by the end of 3Q FY 2023-2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Spending to near EGP 3 tn: <\/span><span>Spending for the upcoming fiscal year will increase <\/span><span>34%<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> to EGP 2.99 tn on higher wages, borrowing costs, and subsidy allocations, according to the document:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The state\u2019s wage bill<\/span><span> will clim<\/span><span>b 15% to<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> EGP 470 bn;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Debt service<\/span><span> costs will increas<\/span><span>e 44% to <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">EGP 1.12 tn;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Commodity purchases<\/span><span> will ris<\/span><span>e 11%<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> to EGP 139.4 bn;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Public investment<\/span><span> will rise <\/span><span>56%<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> to EGP 586.7 bn;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Allocations to <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">education<\/span><span> will ris<\/span><span>e 19% t<\/span><span>o EGP 229.9 bn in FY 2023-24, while <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">healt<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">h <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">spending<\/span><span> will increa<\/span><span>se 15% <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">to EGP 147.8 bn;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Social security <\/span><span>spending will rise <\/span><span>31%<\/span><span> to EGP 477.5 b<\/span><span>n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">SOCIAL SAFETY NET-<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Total spending on measures to support at-risk households, businesses and individuals will clim<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">b 24%<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> to EGP 529.7 bn during the coming year as the government ramps up spending on subsidies to mitigate the impact of inflation and shore up the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Fuel subsidies to increase:<\/span><span> The government expects to <\/span><span>more than double spendi<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">ng on fuel subsidies, and has allocated EGP 119.4 bn for the coming year. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">But spending on food subsidies will fall:<\/span><span> A<\/span><span>llocations to food commodities will inch down to EGP 127.7 bn from EGP 130 bn <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">this year, according to the document.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">WATCH THIS SPACE- <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Export subsidies to almost quadruple:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">The export subsidy will see the highest upward percentage change in next year\u2019s budget to reach EGP 28 bn.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Subsidized loans for industry + agriculture:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> The government will spend EGP 19.5 bn on subdizing loans to industrial and agricultural companies. This is the first fiscal year the state has picked up the tab for the subsidized loan program after it agreed to take the responsibility from the central bank at the request of the IMF. The central bank previously managed the programs by directing commercial banks to provide loans to qualifying businesses at lower rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">DEBT-<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Debt as a proportion of GDP to rise this year, fall the next:<\/span><span>The country\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to<\/span><span> 96%<\/span><span> by the end of the current fiscal year in June, from 87.6% last fiscal year on the back of a weaker EGP and rising interest rates. Meanwhile, the government is now forecasting debt-to-GDP to fall to<\/span><span> 91.3% in FY <\/span><span>2023-2024, and is aiming to push the figure below 80% by 2026-2027. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">A lot of fresh borrowing:<\/span><span> The amount of new borrowing is set to increase b<\/span><span>y 22%<\/span><span> in <\/span><span>FY <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">2023-2024, with the government expecting to sell EGP 2.04 tn in new treasury bills and bonds, according to the document. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">WHAT\u2019S NEXT?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The budget debate begins at the committee level:<\/span><span>The budget document will be discussed in committees and it should typically go up for a vote at the general assembly before the start of the new fiscal year on 1 July. If the budget doesn\u2019t pass before 30 June, the current budget rolls forward to direct state spending until the new document is passed.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economy is \u201cfine,\u201d Maait tells MPs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":586364,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7413],"tags":[279,104,72,276,274,277],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-586363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-budget-watch","tag-budget-watch","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-finance-ministry","tag-house-of-representatives","tag-mohamed-maait","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a3ab6ab6-4c7d-4e04-a322-4b5b202f592a","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/554.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Finance Minister Mohamed Maait presents Egypt\u2019s FY 2023-2024 budget to the House of Representatives","related_issue":[586359],"teaser":"Economy is \u201cfine,\u201d Maait tells MPs","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/5\/.927a6d07-5536-4f95-99c7-8f1799104e2a.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Here\u2019s the government\u2019s fiscal plan for FY 2023-2024 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/10\/heres-the-governments-fiscal-plan-for-fy-2023-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Here\u2019s the 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