{"id":586205,"date":"2023-05-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/08\/jpmorgan-expects-an-imf-review-in-june-but-warns-on-medium-term-debt-outlook\/"},"modified":"2023-05-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T00:00:00","slug":"jpmorgan-expects-an-imf-review-in-june-but-warns-on-medium-term-debt-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/08\/jpmorgan-expects-an-imf-review-in-june-but-warns-on-medium-term-debt-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan expects an IMF review in June but warns on medium-term debt outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">JPMorgan is the latest investment bank to warn of the consequences<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\"> of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">delaying reform: <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Further delays to currency and structural reforms will ramp up liquidity pressures and raise questions about the sustainability of Egypt\u2019s debt, analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a note last week. The investment bank said that while a near-term default isn\u2019t in the cards, the recent sell-off in Egyptian bonds indicates growing anxiety about the medium-term outlook, especially with the heavy debt repayment schedule over the coming years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The good news:<\/span><span style=\"\">The bulge bracket stalwart thinks Egypt should be able to seal a staff-level <\/span><span>agreement with the IMF next month, putting us on course to getting board approval<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> and the next loan tranche by the third quarter. Each review requires Egypt and the IMF to reach a staff-level agreement, which is then taken to the executive board for approval.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Remember:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Egypt committed to maintaining a flexible exchange rate and undertake a host of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">structural reforms \u2014 including selling down state assets and improving transparency of state- and military-owned companies \u2014 as part of its USD 3 bn agreement with the IMF. Following a sizeable depreciation during the first two months of the year, the official EGP-USD exchange rate has remained unchanged, while the government is yet to make a sale under its ambitious privatization program.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">What they said:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> \u201cEfforts are needed to catalyze privatization flows as their continued absence will further worsen the country\u2019s external picture and aggravate imbalances,\u201d the analysts wrote.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">There are three ways that JPMorgan thinks this could play out:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">#1- Summertime, and the living is easy:<\/span><span style=\"\"> We reach a staff-level agreement with the IMF by <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">June, paving the way to the executive board approving the review and the disbursement of the next loan tranche, no questions asked. In this scenario \u2014 to which the bank gives a 55% probability \u2014 Egypt will see FX reserves rise USD 3.2 bn both this fiscal year and the next, and trigger another USD 3.1 bn in inflows from multilateral lenders.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">#2- We\u2019ll take it: <\/span><span style=\"\">We reach a staff-level agreement with the Fund but the executive board isn\u2019t <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">convinced. Before signing off on the review, it asks us to push on with the reform agenda, such as selling down more state-owned assets. JPMorgan says that in this scenario \u2014 which it gives a 30% likelihood \u2014 bond prices could decline initially but won\u2019t experience dramatic changes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">#3- Hold onto your hats:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Having failed to reach a staff-level agreement with the Fund in June, <\/span><span>there remain few signs of a breakthrough in the third-quarter. In this \u201cmore dire\u201d scenario, the bank expects FX reserves to decline by almost USD 10 bn over the next two fiscal years and bond prices could move towards default territory. JPMorgan currently gives this only a 15% chance of happening.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>JPM says the most likely scenario is that we reach a staff-level agreement on the pending review, unlocking fresh cash<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":586206,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,2234,262],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-586205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-jpmorgan","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8597dac1-86e1-4e5e-b647-170fc1c72810","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/407.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"JPMorgan expects an IMF review in June but warns on Egypt\u2019s medium-term debt outlook","related_issue":[586197],"teaser":"JPM says the most likely scenario is that we reach a staff-level agreement on the pending review, unlocking fresh cash","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/5\/.96b51dac-72f7-4f77-ac69-2fdeff2b1b3e.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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The country is eligible for a weight of close to 1.85%, with 14 government bonds with a combined\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;DEBT WATCH&quot;","block_context":{"text":"DEBT WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/debt-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/155.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561506,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/11\/jpmorgan-is-looking-at-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":586205,"position":1},"title":"JPMorgan is looking at Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"JPMorgan has confirmed that it is studying whether to include Egypt in its emerging-markets government bond index, Reuters reports. In a statement on Thursday, the Bulge Bracket bank said it is looking at including 14 EGP-denominated bonds worth USD 24 bn into its GBI-EM Global Diversified index, which would give\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;DEBT WATCH&quot;","block_context":{"text":"DEBT WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/debt-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546703,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/25\/egypts-food-fiscal-insecurity-is-getting-attention-in-the-foreign-press\/","url_meta":{"origin":586205,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s food + fiscal insecurity is getting attention in the foreign press","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The global economic crisis and its impact on Egypt is in focus in the foreign press this morning: Egypt\u2019s balance of payments is vulnerable to the \u201cdouble shock\u201d of monetary tightening and the rise in global prices, and faces tighter capital controls if it does not agree a new financing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;EGYPT IN THE NEWS&quot;","block_context":{"text":"EGYPT IN THE NEWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/egypt-in-the-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562491,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/26\/third-tranche-of-jpmorgan-railway-loan-coming-soon-nbe-seeks-usd-1-bn-syndicated-loan-for-debt-refinance\/","url_meta":{"origin":586205,"position":3},"title":"Third tranche of JPMorgan railway loan coming soon + NBE seeks USD 1 bn syndicated loan for debt refinance","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt could get the third USD 335 mn tranche of a JPMorgan loan to finance the construction of two monorail lines within four months, according to a report in Al Mal\u2019s print edition this morning that cites unnamed sources. The Transport Ministry is reportedly in talks with the lender to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;DEBT WATCH&quot;","block_context":{"text":"DEBT WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/debt-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/231.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577029,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/07\/bond-investors-shrug-at-imf-rescue-package\/","url_meta":{"origin":586205,"position":4},"title":"Bond investors shrug at IMF rescue package","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The markets aren\u2019t convinced that the IMF program is a cure for Egypt\u2019s woes: Egyptian bonds have sold off and the cost of insuring the country\u2019s debt has risen in the days since the government agreed a USD 3 bn rescue package with the IMF as investors adopt a wait-and-see\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/111.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543430,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/01\/egypt-rejoins-jpmorgan-bond-index\/","url_meta":{"origin":586205,"position":5},"title":"Egypt rejoins JPMorgan bond index","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt rejoined JPMorgan\u2019s emerging-market bond index following a decade of absence yesterday in a move that could bring new passive flows into the local debt market. Fourteen EGP bonds worth around USD 26 bn have been added to the JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index, giving Egypt a weighting of 1.85%,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;DEBT WATCH&quot;","block_context":{"text":"DEBT WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/debt-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/2.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/586205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=586205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/586205\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/586197"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/586206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=586205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=586205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=586205"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=586205"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=586205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}