{"id":585383,"date":"2023-04-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/18\/imf-wants-to-see-progress-on-reforms-before-first-loan-review-bloomberg-plus-abdalla-on-inflation\/"},"modified":"2023-04-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T00:00:00","slug":"imf-wants-to-see-progress-on-reforms-before-first-loan-review-bloomberg-plus-abdalla-on-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/18\/imf-wants-to-see-progress-on-reforms-before-first-loan-review-bloomberg-plus-abdalla-on-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF wants to see progress on reforms before first loan review \u2013Bloomberg. PLUS: Abdalla on inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>Reform before review, IMF tells Egypt: <\/span>The IMF wants Egypt to make more progress <\/span>on <\/span>privatizing state-owned companies and moving to a flexible exchange rate before it goes ahead <\/span>with the first review of the country\u2019s <\/span>USD 3 bn<\/a><\/span>assistance<\/a><\/span>package<\/a><\/span>, <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span> report<\/span>s, citing people it says have knowledge of the matter. <\/span>The review had been expected by 15 March 2023 under the terms of the package.<\/span><\/p>\n

Signs of progress:<\/span> The Washington-based lender had \u201cfruitful discussions\u201d with the Egyptian authorities in preparation for the first review on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings last week, IMF mission chief for Egypt Ivanna Hollar said in<\/span> a statement<\/span> on Sunday. \u201cDiscussions addressed a number of issues related to program implementation and the outlook for the Egyptian economy, and will continue virtually towards starting the first review mission,\u201d Hollar added, without disclosing a potential timeline. <\/span><\/p>\n

Seconded by Georgieva:<\/span> \u201cThe teams are working and I am confident that we will have a good outcome,\u201d IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva <\/span>told reporters on Thursday<\/a><\/span>, adding, \u201cI want to say that we have seen in Egypt a deeper understanding of how complex not only the domestic environment is but also the regional and global environment is.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The government may have to curb the pace of large-scale infrastructure projects<\/span> to get through the bottleneck, Georgieva added. \u201cIn the current tight environment, they could undermine macroeconomic stability with the speed that was originally designed under different circumstances,\u201d she added. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly in January <\/span>announced curbs on FX spending on infrastructure projects<\/a><\/span> and instructed all but \u201cessential\u201d ministries to make budget cutbacks until the end of the current fiscal year.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe flexibility of the exchange rate is the best way for Egypt to protect its economy from external shocks,\u201d<\/span> said the IMF\u2019s director for the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, Jihad Azour, <\/span>at a press conference on Thursday (<\/span>transcript<\/a><\/span>)<\/span>. The government needs to \u201credesign the role of the state to focus on priority sectors and allow through leveling the playing field, the capacity for the Egyptian private sector to create growth and create more foreign currencies,\u201d he added. <\/span><\/p>\n

The World Bank agrees:<\/span> T<\/span>he lender's vice president for the Middle East and North Africa, Ferid Belhaj, shared the same view as the IMF about the government\u2019s need to reduce its involvement in the economy in an interview on Wednesday, accord<\/span>ing to <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span>. <\/span>Authorities in Egypt are \u201cmoving in the right direction but they never move fast enough when it comes to reforms,\u201d the news service quotes him as saying. \u201cWhat we see today in Egypt is a situation that is not as stable as we would like it to be,\u201d he added, in reference to the EGP exchange rate. Structural reforms to level the playing field and increase transparency of state-owned companies are \u201cvery, very important to give more confidence to investors and people who would like to engage in the Egyptian economy,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n

What happens if the first review doesn\u2019t wrap up before June? <\/span>The IMF\u2019s executive board should discuss the first review by June, but in the case of a longer delay the lender may combine it with the next one, which is scheduled <\/span>for Septembe<\/span>r, according to Bloomberg.<\/span><\/p>\n

BACKGROUND-<\/span> Egypt committed to reduce the state\u2019s involvement in the economy and maintain a permanent currency float as part of the terms of the loan. The government is yet to sell down any assets since it <\/span>in February<\/a><\/span> announced plans to offload stakes in 32 companies, while the official USD-EGP rate has remained unchanged at 3<\/span>0.94<\/span> for<\/span> almost six weeks<\/span>. <\/span>Egypt needs to pass the first review to unlock the second USD 354 mn tranche of the loan.<\/span><\/p>\n

MAAIT RESPONDS-<\/span><\/p>\n

The government is \u201csteadily proceeding\u201d with implementation of economic reforms<\/span> in <\/span>partnership with the IMF, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Fund representatives in <\/span>Washington, according to a <\/span>ministry statement<\/a><\/span> released on Sunday. He pointed to the state ownership policy document and measures to drum up more FDI as evidence of progress, adding that the changes will see the private sector become the driver of economic growth. <\/span><\/p>\n

ABDALLA SPEAKS<\/span>-<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s going to take more than rate hikes to bring down inflation<\/span>:<\/span>\u201cA lot of our inflation is imported and a lot of it is due to supply problems,\u201d Central Bank of Egypt Governor Hassan Abdalla said on Thursday in Washington (<\/span>watch, runtime: 06:19<\/a><\/span>). \u201cNot only supply prices but supply issues including a backlog that has resulted from some previous regulations. And this in itself is not and will not be addressed by interest rates.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Background: <\/span>Inflation rose to a near-record high in March of <\/span>32.7%<\/a><\/span>, up from 31.9% in the previous month on the back of factors including a series of currency devaluations, an FX crunch, higher fuel prices, and increased demand during Ramadan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moving with caution:<\/span> The CBE has raised interest rates by 1k bps over the past year to curb soaring inflation, and Abdalla voiced caution about further hikes. \u201cWe\u2019ll not hesitate to do more, but we need to be very careful,\u201d he said, hinting at the use of other policy measures to address the rapid growth in prices. Improving the effectiveness of monetary policy \u2014 <\/span>such as by <\/span>winding down its subsidized loan program<\/a><\/span> last year \u2014 is something the central bank is \u201cworking very hard on,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fixing supply issues is key, Abdalla says: <\/span>\u201cRelaxing the supply issues and increased competition will result also in a healthier and faster inflation reduction,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Regaining the narrative:<\/span> \u201cThe market needs to see a true story and needs to see a way forward for some time, a plan for two or three years,\u201d he said. \u201cYou cannot get back the confidence and the trust and managing expectations unless you have the whole full plan. And this is something I\u2019m glad to tell you that we are working very closely with the government on.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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IMF staff and top Egyptian officials \u201cagreed to finalize their work to reach a staff-level agreement\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/230.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":615037,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/12\/egypt-inching-closer-to-new-large-imf-loan-says-fund-chief\/","url_meta":{"origin":585383,"position":3},"title":"Egypt inching closer to new \u201clarge\u201d IMF loan, says Fund chief","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 February 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Georgieva said that the Fund\u2019s talks with Egypt have been about a more flexible exchange rate, but not a float of the EGP.","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/938.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":613330,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/14\/another-sign-were-edging-towards-a-larger-imf-package\/","url_meta":{"origin":585383,"position":4},"title":"Another sign were edging towards a larger IMF package","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 January 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF head Kristalian Georgieva met with CBE boss Hassan Abdalla last week","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/747.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548774,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/22\/egypt-could-opt-for-soft-egp-devaluation-to-stave-off-inflation-moodys\/","url_meta":{"origin":585383,"position":5},"title":"Egypt could opt for soft EGP devaluation to stave off inflation -Moody\u2019s","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s is the latest to speculate on the fate of the EGP: Egyptian policymakers will likely choose to maintain a close watch on the EGP and allow it to ease gradually against the greenback to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures, Moody\u2019s says in a report picked up by the regional press.The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/344.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=585383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585383\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/585378"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/585384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=585383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=585383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=585383"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=585383"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=585383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}