{"id":585350,"date":"2023-04-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/14\/lots-of-macro-updates\/"},"modified":"2023-04-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T00:00:00","slug":"lots-of-macro-updates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/14\/lots-of-macro-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"Lots of macro updates"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/span>As we approach two shortened workweeks and the final week of <\/span>Ramadan, we hope your long weekend plans involve some much-needed relaxation and downtime.<\/span><\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/span>Banks are taking next Sunday, 16 April off to mark Coptic Easter (though it\u2019s not a <\/span>public holiday), while Sham El Nessim \u2014 which is a public holiday \u2014 will be on Monday, 17 April. Enterprise will be taking both days off and we\u2019ll be back in your inboxes at the appointed time on Tuesday, 18 April. (Not that you needed reminding, it just feels good to say it out loud).<\/span><\/p>\n

And the central bank has made it Eid official: <\/span>The CBE confirmed yesterday that the 20-25 <\/span>April (next Thursday to the following Tuesday) will be a banking holiday in observance of Eid El Fitr and Sinai Liberation Day. The announcement comes a day after the Manpower Ministry said the private sector will be taking those same days off. <\/span><\/p>\n

If you are planning to travel, may we suggest a <\/span>tour of some of Egypt\u2019s best therapeutic spots <\/span>to \u2014 literally \u2014 detoxify and treat your desk-induced pains? From mud baths, to hot springs and even sea water treatment, Egypt has been a natural healing hotspot since the days of Cleopatra. We break down some of these choice locations in today\u2019s Enterprise Guide, below.<\/span><\/p>\n

Enterprise Weekend comes out each Friday at 9:00am CLT.<\/span> We\u2019ll be back on Sunday at 6am with EnterpriseAM. Until then: Enjoy the weekend.<\/span><\/p>\n

LAST WEEK IN 3 MINS-<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>With the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, the macro picture on Egypt <\/span>continued to dominate the news cycle this week. <\/span>Both have trimmed our growth outlook for the year, which wasn\u2019t surprising, as both institutions see global growth slowing down. Let\u2019s dive deeper into the numbers: <\/span><\/p>\n

#1- Egypt\u2019s growth outlook got another trim from the IMF: <\/span>Egypt\u2019s growth is expected <\/span>to<\/a><\/span>slow to 3.7% this year<\/a><\/span>, the IMF said in its <\/span>World Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a><\/span> report released on Tuesday. This is a 0.3 percentage point dip from its previous forecast in January. <\/span><\/p>\n

The positive? We\u2019re still ahead of the global growth forecast: <\/span>The IMF left its assessments <\/span>of the world economy largely unchanged, trimming its 2023 forecast by just 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%. This came with cautions of the risks of sticky inflation and rapid policy tightening on the global economy. <\/span><\/p>\n

#2- Ditto the World Bank: <\/span>The global lender now sees Egypt\u2019s<\/span>economy <\/span>growing at a 4.0% clip<\/a><\/span>during the FY 2022-2023, a downward revision from its October forecast of 4.8%, according to its <\/span>MENA Economic Update (pdf)<\/a><\/span>. The World Bank still placed us among the top performers in the region, with only Djibouti expected to see higher growth among regional oil importers in 2023, at 4.4%. <\/span><\/p>\n

ON THE INFLATION FRONT- <\/span>Prices <\/span>continued to accelerate<\/a><\/span> last <\/span>month with annual urban <\/span>inflation jumping to 32.7% y-o-y in March, <\/span>up from 31.9% the <\/span>month before<\/a><\/span>.<\/span> Inflation now stands at its highest in five years. <\/span><\/p>\n

On the brighter side \u2014 this was below analyst expectations.<\/span> T<\/span>he median forecast in a poll <\/span>of economists conducted by <\/span>Reuters<\/a><\/span> had inflation accelerating to 33.6% in March. Maybe we\u2019ve reached the peak?<\/span><\/p>\n

PRIVATIZATION WATCH-<\/span><\/p>\n

#1- Could the Export Development Bank (EBank) be included in the state\u2019s rebooted <\/span>privatization program? <\/span>The Madbouly government is reportedly <\/span>considering it<\/a><\/span> with preliminary studies underway. Adding the EGX-listed EBank would see the bank bring on board new investors via a capital increase, sources with knowledge of the matter have reportedly said.<\/span><\/p>\n

#2- Round 4 of the Pachin bidding war: <\/span>Dubai-based National Paint Holding has <\/span>raised its<\/a><\/span>offer<\/a><\/span> for 100% of EGX-listed Paint and Chemical Industries (Pachin) to EGP 39.80 per share \u2013 a 5% increase from its previous bid of EGP 37.75. That gives Pachin a value of EGP 955.2 mn according to our math. NPH bid is 2% higher than that of rival bidder Eagle Chemicals, which is offering to purchase at least 75% of Pachin for EGP 39.00 per share. The FRA has extended the mandatory tender offer for Pachin until 2 May in line with public holidays. <\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s no word yet on whether Compass Capital will enter the fray. <\/span>Word is that the company is still mulling it over. <\/span><\/p>\n

BANKING-<\/span><\/p>\n

High-yield CDs galore:<\/span>Emirates NBD<\/a><\/span>, <\/span>United Bank of Egypt<\/a><\/span>, <\/span>A<\/a><\/span>hli United Bank<\/a><\/span> (AUB), <\/span>HSBC<\/a><\/span>, <\/span>Suez Canal Bank<\/a><\/span> and <\/span>National Bank of Kuwait Egypt<\/a><\/span> were the latest private banks to follow the lead of state-owned banks <\/span>NBE, Banque Misr<\/a><\/span>and <\/span>Banque du Caire<\/a><\/span> with the <\/span>launch of new certificates of deposit (CDs). The new CDs come in the wake of the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s decision last month to raise interest rates by another <\/span>200 bps<\/a><\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

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