{"id":585192,"date":"2023-04-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/12\/rising-rates-risk-global-growth-imf-warns\/"},"modified":"2023-04-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-12T00:00:00","slug":"rising-rates-risk-global-growth-imf-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/12\/rising-rates-risk-global-growth-imf-warns\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising rates risk global growth, IMF warns"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>The IMF has warned of rising risks to financial stability<\/span> despite keeping its globa<\/span>l <\/span>growth outlook almost unchanged in its latest assessment of the world economy. In its <\/span>World Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a><\/span> released yesterday, the Fund trimmed its 2023 forecast by just 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% but cautioned that sticky inflation and rapid policy tightening are presenting serious risks to the global economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Growth to bottom out this year:<\/span> The IMF <\/span>now expects global growth to fall to 2.8% this year from 3.4% in 2022. Much of the slowdown will take place in advanced economies \u2014 particularly the eurozone and UK \u2014 where growth will <\/span>more than halve<\/span> to 1.3%. Meanwhile, output in emerging and developing economies will remain strong, jumping <\/span>from 2.8% to 4.5% in 4Q 2023<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Flatline:<\/span> The Fund is forecasting growth to <\/span>rebound to 3.0% next year and remain at the same level through to 2028.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSerious side effects\u201d:<\/span> Growth projections may be little changed from the Fund\u2019s last outlook three months ago, but the emphasis from IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas was firmly on the intensifying financial risks caused by the dramatic rise in global interest rates over the past year. \u201cThe sharp policy tightening of the past 12 months is starting to have serious side <\/span>effects for the financial sector,\u201d he wrote, pointing to the instability in the UK gilt market last year and last month\u2019s US banking crisis. \u201cBelow the surface, turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDownside risks dominate\u201d:<\/span> \u201cWe are entering a perilous phase during which economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have risen, yet inflation has not yet decisively turned the corner,\u201d Gourinchas wrote. Sharp policy tightening could have a \u201cdramatic impact\u201d on the global financial system that potentially causes growth to slow to as low as 2.5%. At the same time, the outlook for inflation remains highly uncertain and sticky prices could still force central banks to further raise interest rates in the coming months, he wrote. <\/span><\/p>\n

The inflation outlook:<\/span> The Fund is now predicting global headline inflation to fall to 7.0% this year from 8.7% in 2022, mainly thanks to <\/span>lower energy and food prices. Core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile food and energy prices \u2014 will see a slower decline to 5.1% by the final quarter of this year, an upward revision of 0.6 percentage points from the IMF\u2019s January forecast.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE EGYPT OUTLOOK-<\/span><\/p>\n

Egypt growth outlook trimmed again:<\/span> The IMF now expects Egypt\u2019s economic growth to slow to 3.7% this year, a 0.3 percentage po<\/span>int<\/span> trim from its <\/span>previous forecast in January<\/a><\/span> and a sizable drop from the 6.6% growth rate in 2022. The multilateral lender sees the economy expanding at a 5.0% clip in 2024 and 6.0% in 2028.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inflation will cool off this year: <\/span>Consumer price growth i<\/span>s<\/span> expected to average 21.6% this year from 8.5% last year. That\u2019s a dip from current inflation, which came in at <\/span>32.7% in March<\/a><\/span> on the back of successive devaluations of the EGP. The IMF sees inflation continuing to slow to 18.0% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2028. The Central Bank of Egypt is currently <\/span>targeting a 7% inflation rate<\/a><\/span> \u2014 plus or minus two percentage points \u2014 by the end of 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

MENA outlook unchanged:<\/span> The IMF trimmed its MENA growth outlo<\/span>ok by 0.1 percentage points and now expect<\/span>s growth in the region to fall to 3.1% this year from 5.3% in 2022. Inflation across the region will remain <\/span>unchanged from 2022 at 14.8%<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cChances of a hard landing have risen sharply,\u201d IMF warns<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":585193,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348,272,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-585192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e1da5dd4-43a7-4570-8c3e-1dbbb48df72e","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/519.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Rising rates risk global growth, IMF warns","related_issue":[585187],"teaser":"\u201cChances of a hard landing have risen sharply,\u201d IMF warns","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/4\/.074fa468-f22d-4d8d-bb5d-73ffbd0dafd7.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nRising rates risk global growth, IMF warns - 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In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590804,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":585192,"position":1},"title":"IMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fund expects growth to slow to 3.7% this year","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1027.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575410,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/14\/imf-warns-of-long-protracted-recovery-as-it-eases-global-recession-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":585192,"position":2},"title":"IMF warns of long, protracted recovery as it eases global recession forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF warns of long, slow recovery as it eases global recession forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now sees the world\u2019s GDP contracting at a 4.4% pace \u2014 an improvement from the 4.9% it projected in its June outlook \u2014 after economies coming out of lockdown showed improved trade, retail\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/143.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556144,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/13\/inequality-threatens-pandemic-recovery-imf-says-in-its-latest-global-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":585192,"position":3},"title":"Inequality threatens pandemic recovery, IMF says in its latest global outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The global recovery is bruised, but not broken: The IMF slightly downgraded its projection for global growth in 2021 to 5.9% in its October World Economic Outlook report (pdf) \u2014 down a slim 0.1 percentage points from 6% in its last update in July. The international lender held its growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/142.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570803,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/15\/the-coronavirus-will-trigger-the-worst-global-recession-since-the-great-depression-in-mena-only-egypts-economy-will-grow-this-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":585192,"position":4},"title":"The coronavirus will trigger the worst global recession since the Great Depression; in MENA, only Egypt\u2019s economy will grow this year \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The coronavirus will trigger the worst global recession since the Great Depression, the IMF predicts: The world is facing its greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression as output plummets at a record pace in response to the \u201cGreat Lockdown\u201d put in place to contain covid-19, the IMF warned yesterday.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550050,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":585192,"position":5},"title":"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF expects more than a third of the global economy to contract \u201cthis year or next,\u201d it warns in its October World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday. The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=585192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/585192\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/585187"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/585193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=585192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=585192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=585192"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=585192"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=585192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}