{"id":584956,"date":"2023-04-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/09\/world-bank-downgrades-growth-forecasts-for-egypt-and-the-region-as-inflation-bites\/"},"modified":"2023-04-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-09T00:00:00","slug":"world-bank-downgrades-growth-forecasts-for-egypt-and-the-region-as-inflation-bites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/09\/world-bank-downgrades-growth-forecasts-for-egypt-and-the-region-as-inflation-bites\/","title":{"rendered":"World Bank downgrades growth forecasts for Egypt and the region as inflation bites"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>World Bank revises downward its Egypt economic growth forecast: <\/span>The World Bank now <\/span>expects Egypt\u2019s economy to grow at a 4.0% clip during the fiscal year 2022-2023, according to its April <\/span>MENA Economic Update (pdf)<\/a><\/span>. The forecast marks a downward revision from its <\/span>October forecast<\/a><\/span> of 4.8% and <\/span>roughly tallies<\/a><\/span> with the government\u2019s latest estimates. <\/span><\/p>\n

We\u2019re still expected to be among the top performers in the MENA region: <\/span>Only Djibouti is expected to see higher growth among regional oil importers in 2023, at 4.4%. Egypt is also forecast to outperform all oil ex<\/span>porters <\/span>bar Oman, as weakening global oil demand sees GDP growth in the GCC moderate from 7.3% in 2022 to 3.2% this year. <\/span><\/p>\n

Blame inflation:<\/span> The downgrade comes thanks to a toxic soup of factors familiar to our regular readers. Household and business purchasing power are being constrained as a result of the devaluation of the EGP, imported inflation, higher fuel prices, and monetary tightening, the bank <\/span>writes (pdf)<\/a><\/span>. \u201cInflation is eroding incomes and constraining business activity,\u201d it says. The lender is predicting inflation to average 18.9% in FY 2022-2023 before moderating to 15.0% next fiscal year and 10.0% in FY 2024-2025. <\/span><\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/span>Analysts are predicting another month of record inflation when March data is released tomorrow, after price hikes hit a five-and-a-half year high of <\/span>31.9% y-o-y in February<\/a><\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

Driving growth: <\/span>The services sector \u2014 mainly tourism and Suez Canal receipts \u2014 as well as construction, the WB says. GDP growth is forecast to remain steady at 4.0% next fiscal year before improving to 4.7% in FY 2024-2025. <\/span><\/p>\n

The depreciation may have a silver lining: <\/span>\u201cRelative to other developing oil importers in MENA, Egypt's forecast reflects the expectation that its competitiveness might be increased due to the recent depreciation of the EGP,\u201d the World Bank says. \u201cReforms to boost investment, exports, and FDI remain crucial for competitiveness,\u201d it adds. <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

The World Bank is now expecting the M<\/span>ENA region to grow at a 3.0% clip during 2023<\/span>, down 0.5 <\/span>percentage points from its previous forecast. Oil exporters will see the biggest deceleration in growth as last year\u2019s hot energy markets on the back of the war in Ukraine give way to a more uncertain global outlook, though the historical growth gap between oil exporters and importers in MENA is expected to persist. <\/span><\/p>\n

Sounding the alarm on food insecurity: <\/span>The April update has a special focus on what the World Bank says is \u201c<\/span>a full-blown food insecurity crisis brewing across the region,\u201d largely thanks to inflationary pressures. Food insecurity in MENA now affects some 17.6% of the population, it writes, up from 11.8% in 2006. \u201cInflation hits the poor much harder than the rich, because the poor spend most of their budget on food and energy,\u201d it says \u2014 and data suggests the difference in impact is higher in Egypt than any other country in MENA. Egypt will need some USD 2.8-4.2 bn to meet the needs of the \u201cseverely food insecure\u201d in 2023, the report reads. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lender cuts GDP growth forecast from 4.8% to 4.0% in FY 2022-2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":584957,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,6418,182,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-584956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-growth-projections","tag-inflation","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ee8ce1f3-29e5-4eba-99f3-e3fbea436095","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/329.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"World Bank downgrades growth forecasts for Egypt","full_issue_title":"World Bank downgrades growth forecasts for Egypt and the region as inflation bites","related_issue":[584951],"teaser":"Lender cuts GDP growth forecast from 4.8% to 4.0% in FY 2022-2023","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/4\/.de412e2c-a38b-4850-ae3e-bc2e61f96874.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nWorld Bank downgrades growth forecasts for Egypt and the region as inflation bites - 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The forecast marks a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points from its April forecast (pdf), when the bank expected Egypt to grow 5.0% during the current fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/151.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":588171,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/07\/world-bank-cuts-egypt-growth-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":584956,"position":2},"title":"World Bank cuts Egypt growth outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The lender expects the economy to remain flat at 4.0% next year before rising to 4.7% in 24-25","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/331.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579278,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/01\/imf-trims-egypt-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":584956,"position":3},"title":"IMF trims Egypt growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has cut its economic growth forecast for Egypt, saying it sees GDP growing 4.0% this year, a 0.4 percentage point trim from its previous forecast in October, according to its updated World Economic Outlook released yesterday (here and here, pdf). That\u2019s in line with forecasts from the Madbouly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/3.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":585774,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/30\/economy-set-to-grow-4-0-this-fiscal-year-reuters\/","url_meta":{"origin":584956,"position":4},"title":"Economy set to grow 4.0% this fiscal year -Reuters","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth is set to pick up again in the next two years","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/953.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":653472,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/17\/world-bank-trims-egypts-growth-forecast-to-3-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":584956,"position":5},"title":"World Bank trims Egypt\u2019s growth forecast to 3.5%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 October 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The forecast is 0.7 percentage points below the 4.2% forecasted in June","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1412.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=584956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584956\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/584951"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/584957"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=584956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=584956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=584956"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=584956"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=584956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}