{"id":584517,"date":"2023-04-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/02\/cbe-delivers-large-rate-hike-to-curb-inflation\/"},"modified":"2023-04-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-02T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-delivers-large-rate-hike-to-curb-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/02\/cbe-delivers-large-rate-hike-to-curb-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE delivers large rate hike to curb inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>The CBE did exactly what everyone expected on T<\/span>hursday<\/span>:<\/span> The Central Bank<\/span>of <\/span>Egypt (CBE) raised interest rates by 200 bps on Thursday in a bid to rein in <\/span>inflation<\/span>. The <\/span>Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) bumped up the deposit rate to 18.25% and the lending rate <\/span>to 19.25% after leaving rates on hold last month, it said in <\/span>a statement (<\/a><\/span>pdf<\/a><\/span>)<\/a><\/span>. The bank\u2019s main operation and disc. rates were also raised to 18.75%. <\/span><\/p>\n

The hike came in line with analyst expectations:<\/span> All but one of seven analysts we <\/span>polled<\/a><\/span>last <\/span>week expected policymakers to raise interest rates, with three expecting a 200-bps hike and two penciling in a larger 300-bps hike. The MPC unexpectedly opted to <\/span>leave rates unchanged<\/a><\/span> at its last meeting in February, saying that it wanted to gauge the impact of the combined 800 bps of rate hikes it made in 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inflation is running at its highest level in five-and-a-half-years<\/span>, surging to<\/span>31.9% in February<\/a><\/span>, as the ongoing currency depreciation and strong demand leading up to Ramadan sent food prices spiking to new record highs. \u201cThe MPC stresses that achieving a tight monetary stance is a necessary condition to attain the CBE\u2019s upcoming inflation targets of 7% (\u00b12 percentage points) on average by 2024 4Q and 5%(\u00b12 percentage points) on average by 2026 4Q,\u201d the central bank said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Not enough, says bond market:<\/span> The central bank is going to have to raise interest rates <\/span>higher and bring down inflation before foreign bond investors return to the local debt market, analysts told <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span>. Even after Thursday\u2019s hike, Egypt\u2019s real interest rate remains deeply negative, which \u2014 together with continued uncertainty about the stability of the currency \u2014 gives investors little incentive to return to the market,<\/span> the business newswire claims. <\/span><\/p>\n

High-wire act:<\/span> The central bank is trying to bring down inflation while <\/span>preventing the economy from falling into recession and avoiding raising government borrowing to unsustainable levels, <\/span>Bloomberg points out. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe latest rate hike will not likely bring prices on a disinflationary path<\/span> but will rather <\/span>contain inflation from spiraling out of control,\u201d Prime Securities Head of Research Amr El Alfy told us. He said that while rising yields are becoming more attractive for investors, the FX risk can eliminate any gains before they\u2019re realized. El Alfy is forecasting the currency to fall <\/span>gradually <\/span>to EGP 32.50 \/ USD by the end of 2Q 2023 before recovering to EGP 30.00 by the end of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe hike is too small to catalyze significant capital inflows<\/span>, and thus is unlikely to ease <\/span>pressure on the [EGP] or alleviate the FX scarcity issues the economy is facing,\u201d Farouk Soussa, MENA economist at Goldman Sach<\/span>s, wrote in a note picked up by Bloomberg,<\/span> calling on policymakers to maintain currency flexibility and accelerate asset sales.<\/span><\/p>\n

But inflation-fighting credibility strengthened:<\/span> \u201cThe increase in interest rates should help to <\/span>improve the perception that the central bank is committed to its inflation-targeting framework,\u201d Capital Econo<\/span>mics\u2019 James Swanston<\/span> wrote in a note. Unlike Goldman, Swanston thinks that the higher rates could help Egypt draw more inflows and support the EGP.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe do not expect any action until the CBE has secured some more <\/span>FX firepower from outside,\u201d<\/span> Naeem Brokerage\u2019s head of research Allen Sandeep told us. \u201cWithout the added FX liquidity, a standalone deval would only create another higher floor for the parallel market rate to operate on.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Investor appetite hinges on progress in selling state assets:<\/span> \u201cFor any significant portfolio <\/span>inflows to resume, we need to first see a few big state asset sales transacted as part of the privatization program, and participation from the GCC bloc,\u201d Sandeep said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Further tightening ahead?<\/span> Capital Economics\u2019 Swanston expects the CBE to raise rates by <\/span>another 200 bps in the coming months, noting the \u201chawkish tone\u201d <\/span>of the central bank\u2019s statement.<\/span><\/p>\n

The news got ink in the foreign press:<\/span>Reuters<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>AP<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

BACKGROUND-<\/span> The USD-EGP rate in the parallel <\/span>hasve deviated further<\/a><\/span> from the official rate in recent days and non-deliverable forwards are suggesting a rate of EGP 40 a year from now. The EGP has already lost almost half of its value against the greenback over the past year after the CBE undertook three devaluations to ease external pressures triggered by the conflict in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Move unlikely to spur new inflows, say analysts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":584518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,2234,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-584517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d48e529f-df57-429c-ac77-650747100ba1","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/15.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s central bank delivers large rate hike to curb inflation","related_issue":[584512],"teaser":"Move unlikely to spur new inflows, say analysts","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/4\/.d8542ecb-e94e-4388-a441-3118b698d3d3.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCBE delivers large rate hike to curb inflation - 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Annual urban headline inflation rate increased to 33% in July on account of numerous subsidy cuts and a slight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":584517,"position":1},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586546,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/14\/cbe-to-keep-rates-unchanged-on-slower-april-inflation-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":584517,"position":2},"title":"CBE to keep rates unchanged on slower April inflation -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Seven of nine analysts expect rates to be held steady","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/704.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556550,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/31\/egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":584517,"position":3},"title":"Egypt leaves rates on hold as CBE eyes Fed taper, inflation,","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting on Thursday amid rising global inflation and expectations the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus program by the end of the year. 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