{"id":584295,"date":"2023-03-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/29\/this-morning-theres-more-speculation-about-devaluation-ahead-of-thursdays-mpc-meeting\/"},"modified":"2023-03-29T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-29T00:00:00","slug":"this-morning-theres-more-speculation-about-devaluation-ahead-of-thursdays-mpc-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/29\/this-morning-theres-more-speculation-about-devaluation-ahead-of-thursdays-mpc-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: There\u2019s more speculation about devaluation ahead of Thursday\u2019s MPC meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span><\/p>\n

Good morning, wonderful people. <\/span>It\u2019s yet another brisk morning here in Egypt as we race to the end of the first week of Ramadan, so strap yourself in and let\u2019s get this show on the road. <\/span><\/p>\n

BUT FIRST: Did you know you can bookmark stories to read later on <\/span>our newly<\/a><\/span>relaunched website?<\/a><\/span> Our new home on the web looks cool, loads fast, and has a raft of new features, from deep dives into topic pages, story tags to let you follow the issues and companies that matter most, to an audio feature so you can listen to our news on the go. <\/span>Have a suggestion or want to report a bug? Hit reply to this email.<\/span><\/p>\n

MORNING MUST-READ- Do you have AI angst? <\/span>You\u2019re not alone. Worth checking out this morning is the New York Times\u2019 \u201c<\/span>Tinkering with ChatGPT, workers wonder: Will this take my job?<\/a><\/span>\u201d Start with that and then jump into its <\/span>weeklong series of primers on AI<\/a><\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

SO, WHEN DO WE EAT?<\/span> We\u2019ll be breaking our fas<\/span>ts this evening at 6:12pm<\/span> CLT and you\u2019ll <\/span>have until 4:20am tomorrow to hydrate and have a bite to eat. <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

<\/span><\/a> <\/span>Tomorrow is interest rate day:<\/span> The Central Bank of Egypt will meet <\/span>tomorrow to review interest rates. Six of seven analysts <\/span>we polled<\/a><\/span> expect the Monetary Policy Committee to hike <\/span>rates by at least 200 bps<\/span> as it tries to tamp down on inflation and boost FX liquidity amid continued pressure on the EGP. A <\/span>Reuters<\/a><\/span> poll out earlier this week sees a median forecast 200-bps hike, while seven of 15 pundits surveyed expect a rise of 300 bps.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/span>But is it also devaluation day?<\/span> Widening USD rates in the parallel and derivatives <\/span>markets suggest the EGP may need to devalue against the greenback, according to analysts speaking to <\/span>Reuters<\/a><\/span>, some of whom expect a move coinciding with the MPC meeting on Thursday. \u201cNo time like the present to align foreign exchange rates with fundamentals,\u201d said Gergely Urmossy, EM strategist at Societe Generale, who described this week\u2019s meeting as \u201cone of the most anticipated events in the African frontier space.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The USD is currently trading at EGP 35-36 on the parallel market<\/span>, while 12-month non-deliverable forwards are pointing to EGP 40, according to the newswire. The official rate has held at 30.96 <\/span>for almost three week<\/span>s. <\/span><\/p>\n

Between a rock and a hard place: <\/span>\u201cEgypt's options have narrowed to a simple choice: either improve the foreign exchange supply picture through asset sales and reforms, or bring down demand for hard currency through further painful adjustment,\u201d Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa said.<\/span><\/p>\n

But devaluation isn\u2019t a panacea:<\/span> \u201cAnother devaluation is widely expected, but by itself, we do not see it bringing in much needed capital inflow,\u201d said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, echoing <\/span>a Morgan Stanley note<\/a><\/span> published this week. \u201cThere needs to be meaningful signs of reform progress to help start rebuilding investor confidence, including a truly flexible EGP, tighter monetary policy, and the privatization program,\u201d she said, predicting the EGP to fall to 36-38 to the USD.<\/span><\/p>\n

Remember:<\/span> The central bank committed to maintaining a <\/span>\u201cdurably flexible\u201d exchange rate<\/a><\/span> under the USD 3 bn loan program agreed with the IMF in October. Fund officials were due to visit Egypt earlier this month to conduct their first review of the program but <\/span>are still yet to set a date<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This would be round four:<\/span> The central bank has devalued the currency three times over the past year in a bid. The EGP has lost almost half of its value against the greenback since last March, when Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine triggered the flight of hot money from emerging markets including Egypt. <\/span><\/p>\n

HAPPENING TODAY-<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/span>Climate talks wrap in Luxor today: <\/span>The committee set up to move forward the <\/span>landmark <\/span>loss and da<\/a><\/span>mage fund<\/a><\/span> agreed at last year\u2019s COP27 summit is <\/span>holding its first meeting<\/a><\/span> in Luxor. The three-day talks wrap up today. Representatives from 33 developing and developed countries are attending the talks, which are being led by Egypt\u2019s top climate negotiator, Amb. Mohamed Nasr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Want the rundown on what happened in Luxor yesterday? <\/span>Check out <\/span>thi<\/a><\/span>s<\/a><\/span>morning\u2019s edition<\/a><\/span> of Enterprise Climate. <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/span>Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn is in Cairo <\/span>today <\/span>and tomorrow <\/span>for <\/span>talks<\/a><\/span>. Sokhonn is arriving in Egypt from Morocco.<\/span><\/p>\n

HAPPENING THIS WEEK- <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/span>We can expect to get our first proper look at the state\u2019s spending plans for the <\/span>coming <\/span>fiscal year <\/span>when the Finance Ministry delivers the draft FY 2023-2024 budget to the House of Representatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

Subscribe here<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-<\/span><\/p>\n

There are a handful of stories dominating the front pages of the global business press this morning:<\/span><\/p>\n

#1- Another day, <\/span>another crypto bro<\/a><\/span> under fire: <\/span>FTX\u2019s Sam Bankman-Fried has been <\/span>accused of paying at least USD 40 mn in bribes to a Chinese official in hopes of having the accounts of his hedge fund, Alameda, unfrozen. The bribery charge comes on top of a hefty <\/span>list of criminal charges<\/a><\/span> he is already facing after the collapse of his cryptocurrency exchange FTX last year. (<\/span>Reuters<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>AP<\/a><\/span>| <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span>| <\/span>CNBC<\/a><\/span>| <\/span>The Guardian<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>BBC<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>CNN<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Financial Times<\/a><\/span>) <\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

#2- JPMorgan boss deposed in Epstein lawsuits: <\/span>JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon will be <\/span>summoned for a sworn deposition in May as part of investigations into the bank\u2019s relationship with late <\/span>[redacted]<\/span> offender Jeffrey Epstein and its decision to keep him as a client. JPMorgan, which had Epstein as a client for more than a decade, is facing two separate lawsuits alleging that it turned a blind eye to his illegal activities and benefited from human trafficking. (<\/span>Reuters<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Financial Times<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Wall Street Journal<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>CNBC<\/a><\/span>)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

We are delighted to share with you that the Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum <\/span>will be taking <\/span>place on<\/span> Monday, 15 May <\/span>at the<\/span> Four Seasons Hotel at Nile Plaza.<\/span><\/p>\n

DO YOU WANT TO ATTEND?<\/span> The first wave of invites is going out soon. If you\u2019re a C-suite exec, exporter, investor, official, banker, or someone who should be part of the conversation, please <\/span>TAP OR CLICK HERE<\/a><\/span>to request a spot at this exclusive event<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

WANT TO SHARE YOUR STORY ON STAGE?<\/span> Drop a note to <\/span>Patrick here and let\u2019s talk<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

WANT TO BECOME A COMMERCIAL PARTNER?<\/span> Ping a note to <\/span>Moustafa, our head of commercial, here<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

*** It\u2019s Hardhat day \u2014 your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt:<\/span> Enterprise\u2019s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education. <\/span><\/p>\n

In today\u2019s issue:<\/span> We profile the EGP 300 bn project to reclaim desert land next to the Nile <\/span>Delta.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Look for it here when it\u2019s released.","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":634288,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/01\/11\/what-were-tracking-on-11-january-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":584295,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 11 January 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"A fairly slow news day abroad is balanced by a very busy one here in Egypt, so we\u2019re keeping the miscellany to a minimum this morning.Among the (very small) handful of international stories worth your time this morning: The \u201clast of the bears\u201d are still waiting in hope of a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":647899,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/05\/23\/what-were-tracking-this-week-182\/","url_meta":{"origin":584295,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 May 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Public service announcement for Giza residents: Water service will be cut for 24 hours from Wednesday to Thursday morning in certain areas of Giza due to construction on the Rod El Farag Axis project, the Holding Company for Water and Wastewater announced yesterday, Al Masry Al Youm reports.","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":604660,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/10\/what-were-tracking-on-10-december\/","url_meta":{"origin":584295,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 10 December","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 December 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s all about the money this morning: From multilateral institutions to Big Oil and homegrown VC funds, this morning\u2019s headlines are dominated by announcements of several bn USD in fresh investment and financing. Funds from multilateral institutions are flowing to the private sector and infrastructure, and private sector companies have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":651202,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/02\/07\/what-were-tracking-this-week-204\/","url_meta":{"origin":584295,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 February 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Among the other stories on which we\u2019re keeping an eye this fine winter morning: A cabinet shuffle is still in the cards, but Prime Minister Sherif Ismail is yet to provide guidance on which it might be announced.A delegation from the Confederation of Indian Industry is expected in Egypt between\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":648641,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/04\/09\/sunday-morning-read-men-bet-she-would-fail-now-she-runs-a-usd-26-bn-fund\/","url_meta":{"origin":584295,"position":5},"title":"Sunday morning read: Men bet she would fail; now she runs a USD 26 bn fund","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 April 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"We suggest you start your morning with a read of \u201cMen bet she would fail; nowshe runs a USD 26 bn fund,\u201d a New York Times Dealbook feature on Dawn Fitzpatrick, 47, who becomes something like the eighth or ninth chief investment officer at George Soros\u2019 Soros Fund Management since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=584295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584295\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/584293"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/584296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=584295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=584295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=584295"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=584295"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=584295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}