{"id":584213,"date":"2023-03-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/28\/large-scale-privatization-key-to-ending-our-fx-crisis-morgan-stanley\/"},"modified":"2023-03-28T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-28T00:00:00","slug":"large-scale-privatization-key-to-ending-our-fx-crisis-morgan-stanley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/28\/large-scale-privatization-key-to-ending-our-fx-crisis-morgan-stanley\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cLarge-scale\u201d privatization key to ending our FX crisis -Morgan Stanley"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Egypt\u2019s limited fiscal space means that a \u201clarge-scale\u201d privatization program is essential <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">if it is going to bring an end to the ongoing FX liquidity crisis<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> and plug our multi-bn USD financing gap, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note yesterday. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The bulge bracket investment bank estimates that Egypt could bring in as much as USD <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">7 bn<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> through asset sales by next year (USD 2 bn by the end of the fiscal year in June and USD 5 bn in FY 2023-2024), helping to increase FX liquidity, bolster public finances and narrow its financing gap, which it puts at USD 23-24 bn through to the end of FY 2023-24.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">\u201cThis in turn should tame further expectations of FX depreciation and ensure a smooth <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">transition to a durably flexible regime<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">, potentially lowering the bar for portfolio investors and buying time for the authorities to implement the structural reforms to level the playing field and boost FDI inflows further,\u201d the bank writes. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">But large-scale privatization is not going to be easy:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Vested interests and difficulties <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">changing the regulatory framework will pose obstacles to achieving the kind of overhaul necessary to put the country\u2019s economy on a more sustainable path. And the challenge of selling off state assets could increase as the government moves deeper into the program, when it focuses on smaller companies with less well-kept records, the bank says.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Delays could be costly:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Stalling sales between now and the end of the fiscal year in June <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">could \u201cdeteriorate investor sentiment and lead to prolonged FX liquidity issues,\u201d the bank writes. This would raise expectations of further EGP depreciation and higher inflation, putting further pressure on the current and the interest rate. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">It\u2019s not enough to let the EGP slide further against the greenback:<\/span><span style=\"\"> \u201cWhile preventing a <\/span><span>persistent misalignment of the exchange rate is crucial, relying on FX adjustment alone, i.e., <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">letting the EGP depreciate further until it starts to attract foreign flows, is not a panacea given already high levels of inflation and the social costs associated with it,\u201d the analysts write.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">The government can only do so much to limit the impact of inflation:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Fiscal space is limited:<\/span><span style=\"\"> The country\u2019s debt \/ GDP ratio of 92%, and high <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">spend on bread and fuel subsidies, means that the government doesn\u2019t have much room to provide relief for inflation;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">As is monetary policy:<\/span><span style=\"\"> The Central Bank of Egypt can only raise interest rates so far <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">due to the country\u2019s large interest burden and tight global financial conditions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">FDI + portfolio inflows could total almost USD 44 bn by June 2025:&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"\">Reform uncertainty and <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">tight global financial conditions means that Morgan Stanley\u2019s base case for reserves and inflows from FDI and portfolio investments are below the IMF\u2019s projections. The bank expects reserves to climb by USD 5.4 bn by the end of FY 2024-2025 \u2014 below the IMF\u2019s projections of USD 20.3 bn. Its estimates for FDI and portfolio inflows are USD 7.1 bn and USD 5.8 bn below IMF forecasts. Morgan Stanley thinks Egypt will attract USD 28.3 bn in FDI and USD 15.6 bn from portfolio investors by June 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700;\">Key forecasts:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Inflation<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> is forecast to to peak at 38% by September and fall to 13.6% by the end 2024;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Interest rates:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> The bank expects the CBE to raise rates by 400 bps to 20.25% by July. Last month\u2019s red-hot inflation figures and rising pressure on the currency means that this will likely be front-loaded, with rates rising by at least 200 bps this month.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Economic growth<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> will slow to 4.3% this fiscal year before rising to 5% in FY 2023-2024.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The budget deficit<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> will widen to 7.6% this fiscal year and 8.1% in FY 2023-2024 even as the primary surplus inches upwards.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Debt-to-GDP:<\/span><span> Egypt\u2019s debt as a proportion of GDP will increase from 92% to 96% in FY 2022-2023, before falling back to 94% next year.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bank thinks Egypt could bring in USD 7 bn from program by next year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":584214,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,2234,508,81],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-584213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-morgan-stanley","tag-privatization-watch","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"aaa5e218-d9a7-46ed-84fb-9dacc1708254","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/529.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"\u201cLarge-scale\u201d privatization key to ending Egypt\u2019s FX crisis -Morgan Stanley","related_issue":[584208],"teaser":"Bank thinks Egypt could bring in USD 7 bn from program by next year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/3\/.082462e0-0f98-4f5e-ba45-a0c722a14a76.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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