{"id":584039,"date":"2023-03-26T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-26T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/26\/cbe-to-raise-interest-rates-by-at-least-200-bps-this-week-poll\/"},"modified":"2023-03-26T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-26T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-to-raise-interest-rates-by-at-least-200-bps-this-week-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/26\/cbe-to-raise-interest-rates-by-at-least-200-bps-this-week-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE to raise interest rates by at least 200 bps this week -poll"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will raise interest rates by at least 200 bps when <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">it meets on Thursday<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> as it tries to put a lid on soaring inflation amid continued pressure on the EGP, according to a poll of analysts we conducted last week. Six of seven respondents see the central further tightening policy, with three expecting policymakers to raise rates by 200 bps and two penciling in a 300-bps hike. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Where we stand: <\/span><span style=\"\">The overnight deposit rate is 16.25%, while the <\/span><span>overnight lending rate is 17.25% and the main operation and disc. rates are at 16.75%. The CBE has raised rates by 800 bps over the past year, including a large <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b3b7b9a2-2fe4-419d-a713-f9655e5f5a22\" style=\"\">300-bps increase<\/a><\/span><span> in December, but in a surprise move opted to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/48d676b3-e128-4d06-9a40-d9a6852851ba\" style=\"\">leave them unchanged<\/a><\/span><span> at its last meeting in February.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Inflationary pressures are to blame: <\/span><span style=\"\">\u201cWe expect the Monetary Policy Committee to continue <\/span><span>tightening policy rates by around 200 bps to tame increasing inflation rates, which we expect to continue rising,\u201d said <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">HC Securities banking and macro analyst Heba Monir. Prime Securities Head of Research Amr El Alfy is also expecting a 200 bps hike.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Inflation <\/span><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;font-weight:700;text-decoration-skip-ink:none\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/43c9a65b-6ab3-459d-b3b2-f9114f0fb374\" style=\"\">surged to a fresh high<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\"> in February<\/span><span style=\"\"> on the back of a record increase in food prices. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">The follow-through effects of the EGP devaluation in January caused headline inflation to hit its highest level since July 2017, while core inflation hit a record high.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">More aggressive tightening could be on the table:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Economist Mona Bedeir is predicting <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">a 200 bps increase but \u201cwouldn't be shocked if the CBE opts for a more aggressive hike and raises its policy rate by 300 bps,\u201d she told us, citing the pressure on the exchange rate and the expected inflation trajectory. Hany Aboul Fotouh, a veteran of CI Capital, Arab Banking Corporation, and HSBC, is also expecting a 200-300 bps hike.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Inflation isn\u2019t coming down any time soon: <\/span><span style=\"\">HC Securities is expecting inflation to continue to <\/span><span>increase for the coming months, peaking at almost 36% by July before falling back to 30.3% by the end of the year. Inflation will be driven by <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/98ceb593-2d68-4173-8411-f7dd2c35b111\" style=\"\">the recent fuel-price hikes<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">, the devaluation of the EGP,  the ongoing poultry shortage, and the expected rise in electricity prices from 1 July, Monir said. HC Securities is expecting inflation to fall to 21.5% in March 2024, while Prime Holding sees it averaging 27% through this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">A lot is contingent on what happens with the government\u2019s privatization program:<\/span><span style=\"\"> \u201cThe <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">upside risk on this estimate is heavily dependent on the magnitude of USD \/ EGP movements,\u201d Bedeir said. \u201dDelays to the IMF-backed reforms, privatization plans, or Gulf investor inflows will put pressure on the currency and inflation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The CBE\u2019s inflation targets are looking out of reach: <\/span><span style=\"\">The CBE is sticking with its current <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">inflation target of 7% (\u00b1 2%) through to 4Q 2024, but wants to bring inflation down to 5% (\u00b1 2 percentage points) by 4Q 2026. \u201cEven as inflation slows later in the year, we do not envisage it will fall back within the CBE\u2019s target range of  7% (\u00b1 2%) until mid-2024 at the earliest,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote in a note.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">One vote for leaving rates unchanged:<\/span><span> Faisal Islamic Brokerage\u2019s head of research,<\/span><span> Hesham El Shebeini wa<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">s the sole respondent to predict leave rates unchanged. \u201cWe believe that there will not be any further interest rate hikes by the CBE down the road. We believe that an interest rate cut will be in sight within 2024 or so,\u201d he said. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Six of seven analysts see the CBE raising rates by at least 200 bps<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":584040,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-584039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b95d2004-21e9-43a6-a002-cb9dc58d442e","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/423.jpg","photo_position":"below","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s central bank will likely increase interest rates this week -poll","related_issue":[584030],"teaser":"Six of seven analysts see the CBE raising rates by at least 200 bps","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/3\/.a90eeefb-f5b7-4d00-ac8d-c68549e78182.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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