{"id":584032,"date":"2023-03-26T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-26T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/26\/this-morning-imf-egypt-loan-review-date-still-tbc\/"},"modified":"2023-03-26T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-26T00:00:00","slug":"this-morning-imf-egypt-loan-review-date-still-tbc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/26\/this-morning-imf-egypt-loan-review-date-still-tbc\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: IMF Egypt loan review date still TBC"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to the first full workweek of Ramadan. <\/span>We hope the holy month is treating you well. <\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s interest rate week:<\/span> It\u2019s a big week for the folks over at the Central Bank of Egypt, who will <\/span>meet on Thursday to decide on how to respond to soaring inflation rates. Most of the analysts and economists we spoke to last week see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiking interest rates by at least 200 bps in a bid to curb accelerating prices and improve foreign-currency liquidity, with some penciling-in an even larger 300-bps increase. After raising rates by 800 bps last year, the MPC at its last meeting in February opted to leave them unchanged, though last month\u2019s <\/span>red-hot inflation data<\/a><\/span> renders a continuation of the \u2018wait and see\u2019 approach unlikely.<\/span><\/p>\n

^^ We have the full results of our customary interest rate poll in this morning\u2019s news well, below.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/span>The IMF is yet to set a date for the first review of Egypt\u2019s <\/span>USD 3 bn loan<\/a><\/span> program:<\/span>\u201cPreparations for the first review have started and dates for the first review mission will be announced when they have been agreed with the authorities,\u201d IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack said in <\/span>a press briefing<\/a><\/span> on Thursday. <\/span><\/p>\n

IMF officials should have been here by now:<\/span> The IMF had scheduled its first review of the <\/span>progr<\/span>am for 15 March <\/span>in <\/span>a staff report<\/a><\/span> published in January. Kozack didn\u2019t elaborate on the reasons for the delay. <\/span>The IMF will conduct eight reviews<\/span> over the duration of the 46-month program, <\/span>which will end in June 2026. The second review is due to take place on 15 September.<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/a> <\/span>WATCH THIS SPACE- Private-sector minimum wage talks to start soon:<\/span> The <\/span>National Council for Wages will meet during Ramadan to discuss raising the private-sector minimum wage, a source at the council told <\/span>Al Borsa<\/a><\/span>. Monthly wages for private sector employees should be no less than EGP 3.5k a month, the source said \u2014 that\u2019s a 30% hike the current gross minimum monthly salary of <\/span>EGP 2.7k<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Expect pushback:<\/span> Some in the private sector have historically been reluctant to agree to higher minimum wages (though as we keep saying, if you can\u2019t afford to pay your staff a living wage you probably shouldn\u2019t be in business). Public-sector workers and civil servants will receive <\/span>wage hikes and a higher minimum wage<\/a><\/span> from 1 April.<\/span><\/p>\n

EGP WATCH-<\/span><\/p>\n

Fitch Solutions sees the EGP falling to 33.00 against the USD in 1H 2023 <\/span>thanks to <\/span>the ongoing FX shortage, according to its latest <\/span>risk report<\/span> on Egypt. While the country has secured external financing from the IMF and Gulf countries to cover its needs, \u201ca burgeoning due diligence process will prevent the USD 20 bn of investments pledged by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to be channeled into Egypt\u2019s privatization programme in the short term,\u201d the report reads . <\/span><\/p>\n

The silver lining: Fitch is expecting the EGP to rebound to 30 against the USD by the end of 2023 <\/span>as the privatization program picks up pace and portfolio investors stage a partial return to the market, bringing in more hard currency. <\/span><\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/span>The official EGP-USD rate hasn\u2019t moved since 12 March, remaining priced at <\/span>30.96<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

ALSO- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has relaunched its <\/span>website<\/a><\/span>. <\/span>Read more about the <\/span>new website and its features <\/span>here<\/a><\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

AFCON QUALIFIERS GROUP STAGE<\/span>- Egypt secured a comfortable<\/span>2-0 home victory<\/a><\/span>against Malawi<\/span> on Friday after two first-half goals from Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush kept the Pharaohs at the top of Group D following the third round of the Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) qualifiers. Egypt\u2019s away game on Malawian turf is scheduled for this Tuesday, 28 March, at 3pm. <\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/a><\/span>PSA- We\u2019re in for another week of changeable weather<\/span>, with the mercury on a <\/span>rollercoaster and frequently foggy skies. <\/span>The Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA)<\/a><\/span> is <\/span>forecasting the daytime high to hit 22\u00b0C and a nighttime low of 13\u00b0C today, with foggy skies across Greater Cairo. Later in the week we will see highs of 26\u00b0C as the weather continues to warm up as we head deeper into spring.<\/span><\/p>\n

SO, WHEN DO WE EAT?<\/span> We\u2019ll be breaking our fasts tonight at 6:10pm and Fajr prayers <\/span>are at <\/span>4:24am tomorrow.<\/span><\/p>\n

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HAPPENING TODAY-<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/span>EU Vice-President Margaritis Schinas is in Egypt from <\/span>26 to 28 March<\/span> to discuss skills, education and migration, the EU <\/span>said<\/a><\/span> yesterday. Schinas will meet cabinet ministers, including Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Education Minister Reda Hegazy, and Manpower Minister Hassan Shehata.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Senate is back in session after a three-week break. Here\u2019s what\u2019s on the <\/span>agenda:<\/span><\/p>\n