{"id":582960,"date":"2023-03-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/14\/this-morning-global-bank-sell-off-sends-egx-30-to-a-nine-week-low\/"},"modified":"2023-03-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T00:00:00","slug":"this-morning-global-bank-sell-off-sends-egx-30-to-a-nine-week-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/14\/this-morning-global-bank-sell-off-sends-egx-30-to-a-nine-week-low\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: Global bank sell-off sends EGX 30 to a nine-week low"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, wonderful people, and happy hump day. <\/span>We have an absolutely packed issues dominated by investment news, another potential privatization sale, rising tourism numbers \u2026 and that small matter of bank failures in the United States roiling global capital markets. But first:<\/span><\/p>\n

BUDGET WATCH- <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>Maait + Madbouly review draft FY 2023-24 budget<\/span><\/span>: <\/span>Prime Minister Moustafa <\/span>Madbouly and Finance Minister Mohamed Maait looked over the new state budget ahead of forwarding it to the House. The Finance Ministry <\/span>expects to send<\/a><\/span> the draft budget to the House of Representatives for discussion during the week of 26 March. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi would then typically sign off on the budget before the start of the fiscal year on 1 July.<\/span><\/p>\n

What can we expect from the new budget? <\/span>It<\/span> will have to balance the need for fiscal reform with increased social spending to soften the impact of soaring inflation on the general public. The government last week approved a <\/span>EGP 150 bn in new social spending<\/a><\/span> for the coming year.<\/span><\/p>\n

SOME GLOBAL PLAYERS SEE EGP SLIDING, RATES RISING-<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>Talk of a \u201cfourth devaluation\u201d continues ahead of the IMF\u2019s first review<\/span><\/span>of the USD <\/span>3 bn loan program this month. Non-deliverable forwards declined for a tenth consecutive week last week \u2014 the first time that has happened since 2007 \u2014 while CIB\u2019s London-listed global depository receipts are trading at a 14% discount to their shares in Cairo, <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span> says. <\/span>Abrdn<\/span>\u2019s head of EM sovereign debt, Edwin Gutierrez, told the news outlet that authorities will need to let the currency slip \u201csooner, rather than later,\u201d claiming the EGP is still being managed. The EGP lost about<\/span> 3% <\/span>of its value since the beginning of February to nearly 31.00, according to the official rate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The pace at which the privatization program is rolling out and the ongoing FX shortage<\/span>are keeping capital flows from reentering the country, a key step to meeting the growing demand <\/span>for FX and ending the import backlog, which according to <\/span>Citigroup<\/span> has increased to USD 4 bn from USD 2.5 bn in January.<\/span><\/p>\n

All signs are pointing to a huge rate hike this month:<\/span> February\u2019s <\/span>blowout inflation print<\/a><\/span> will <\/span>likely force the central bank into a huge rate hike when it meets later this month, which Goldman Sachs thinks could be as large as 300 bps. Meanwhile<\/span>, <\/span>JPMorgan<\/span> is penciling in<\/span> a 200-bps increase this month and 100 bps in May, taking the deposit rate to 19.25% \u2014 i<\/span>ts highest level in 30 years<\/span>. \u201cWe do not rule out additional liquidity tightening measures from CBE, such as a further hike to the required reserve ratio\u201d at commercial banks, strategists wrote in a note last week. The bank now expects inflation to average 24.3% this fiscal year and 20.7% next year.<\/span><\/p>\n

We\u2019re not the only North African country facing pressure right now: <\/span>Investors are <\/span>continuing to dump Tunisia\u2019s bonds, raising fears that the country could default on its debt, according to <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span>. The sell-off has accelerated after the IMF <\/span>expressed concern<\/a><\/span> at recent anti-migrant comments made by President Kais Saied, which <\/span>triggered a spate of attacks<\/a><\/span> against sub-Saharan Africans. A loan agreement with the IMF is seen as crucial as helping the country avoid default.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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WHAT\u2019S HAPPENING TODAY- <\/span><\/p>\n

The Danish PM is in town<\/span><\/wwtt2><\/span>: It\u2019s the final day of <\/span>Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen\u2019s visit <\/span>to Cairo. We have more on her talks yesterday with PM Madbouly and President El Sisi in this morning\u2019s Diplomacy section, below.<\/span><\/p>\n

The SCZone is in Vietnam:<\/span> Representatives from the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) <\/span>are in Hanoi where they will meet with local businesses and investors in a bid to attract investment. The roadshow lasts through to Friday, 17 March.<\/span><\/p>\n

US inflation data lands amid banking crisis<\/span><\/span>:<\/span> The US will release February\u2019s inflation data <\/span>today amid a banking crisis that is complicating the Federal Reserve\u2019s efforts to tackle inflation. A hotter-than-expected print is the last thing the central bank needs right now, which is facing having to pause its tightening cycle to avoid increasing instability in the banking system.<\/span><\/p>\n

TOMORROW-<\/span><\/p>\n

Preparations begin for Safi + Wataniya stake sales:<\/span> The government will <\/span>start<\/a><\/span>preparing<\/a><\/span> to sell stakes in military-owned bottled drinks firm Safi and fuel retailer Wataniya on Wednesday, with unnamed advisor or advisors set to start marketing the firms to strategic investors. <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>Washington\u2019s emergency measures weren\u2019t enough to prevent a global bank sell-off<\/span><\/span>: <\/span>Emergency <\/span>measures <\/span>announced by US regulators<\/a><\/span> on Sunday failed to prevent a selloff of bank shares triggered by the <\/span>collapse of Silicon Valley Bank<\/a><\/span> (SVB) <\/span>and two other lenders<\/span>, with investors yesterday <\/span>dumping bank shares at a faster pace<\/span>. US regional banks were hit hardest, with First Republic Bank plunging 62% and Western Alliance losing 47%, though large banks also saw significant declines, with Citigroup and Wells Fargo shares falling more than 7%. <\/span>All in all: Some <\/span>USD 465 bn has been wiped from financial stocks<\/span> across the world since last week, according to <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

ICYMI- <\/span>Three major US banks <\/span>with heavy tech and \/ or crypto exposure<\/span> have collapsed in less <\/span>than a week<\/span>. SVB and Signature Bank became the second- and third-largest bank failures in US history, sparking fears that the country\u2019s banking system could be thrown into turmoil. In a bid to calm nerves, US authorities have taken emergency measures to cover all deposits and supply liquidity to lenders, while an intervention by President Biden yesterday pledged to do \u201cwhatever needed\u201d to end the crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>EGX WATCH- Egyptian banks were not spared:<\/span> Shares on the EGX slid to a <\/span>nine-week low yesterday<\/span> as the impact of the US banking crisis rippled across the world. A <\/span>sell-off of Egyptian bank stocks sapped market sentiment, sending the benchmark EGX30 down by a<\/span>s much as 4.1%<\/span> before it pared some of its losses to close off 3.1%. The index has fallen almost 6.3% this week alone and is down more than 14% from it<\/span>s recent high<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Banks led declines:<\/span> CIB \u2014 <\/span>by far the largest constituent of the EGX30<\/span> \u2014 fell <\/span>almost 4% during trading while Credit Agricole Egypt lost 8.5%<\/span>. The Central Bank of Egypt was out with a statement on Sunday saying <\/span>no Egyptian bank has investments or deposits with SVB<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

European markets were particularly hard hit:<\/span> It was a sea of red in the European equity <\/span>markets yesterday as the banking sell-off continued. Credit Suisse fell as much as 15% to a record low, Italy\u2019s Unicredit lost 9%, and HSBC shares fell 4%, a day after the bank <\/span>agreed to acquire<\/a><\/span> SVB\u2019s UK arm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investors rushed to safe havens:<\/span> Two-year US treasuries fell by more than 50 bps and gold <\/span>jumped almost 2% as investors looked to safe assets. US stocks erased earlier gains to finish slightly in the red, while the USD and oil both fell.<\/span><\/p>\n

What does all this mean for interest rates?<\/span> Some analysts \u2014 including at <\/span>Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/span>and Pimco<\/a><\/span> \u2014 now think the Federal Reserve will press pause on its tightening cycle when it meets next week to prevent the crisis from intensifying. Chairman Jay Powell had last week indicated that the central bank could accelerate the pace of rate rises to curb hotter-than-expected inflation, but the market is now giving less than a 60% chance that it will raise rates by 25 bps. <\/span><\/p>\n

The sell-off is continuing in earnest in Asia this morning:<\/span> Bourses across Asia are down <\/span>this morning, with the Nikkei and the Kospi (both down more than 2%) leading declines. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell as much as 8.3% in Japan while Hana Financial was down almost 5% in Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

The story is dominating the international headlines this morning:<\/span>Associated Press<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Reuters<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Financial Times<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Wall Street Journal<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>Washington Post<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>New York Times<\/a><\/span> | <\/span>CNBC<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

We are delighted to share with you that the Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum <\/span>will<\/span> be taking <\/span>place on<\/span> Monday, 15 May <\/span>at the<\/span> Four Seasons Hotel at Nile Plaza.<\/span><\/p>\n

DO YOU WANT TO ATTEND?<\/span> The first wave of invites is going out soon. If you\u2019re a C-suite exec, exporter, investor, official, banker, or someone who should be part of the conversation, please <\/span>TAP OR CLICK HERE<\/a><\/span>to request a spot at this exclusive event<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

WANT TO SHARE YOUR STORY ON STAGE?<\/span> Drop a note to <\/span>Patrick here and let\u2019s talk<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

WANT TO BECOME A COMMERCIAL PARTNER?<\/span> Ping a note to <\/span>Moustafa, our head of commercial, here<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-<\/span><\/p>\n

Ahlan Ramadan:<\/span> The government\u2019s Nasr City Ahlan Ramadan discount supermarket expo will <\/span>kick off on 15 March<\/a><\/span> and will run through to 21 March.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Finance Ministry will host the <\/span>Public-Private Partnerships MENA Forum<\/a><\/span> on <\/span>19-20 March at the Nile Ritz-Carlton<\/span>, according to a <\/span>Finance Ministry statement<\/a><\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

Check out our full calendar on the web<\/a><\/span> for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

*** It\u2019s Going Green day \u2014 your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt:<\/span> Enterprise\u2019s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

In today\u2019s issue:<\/span> We take a closer look at green fuels: what are they, where does the industry <\/span>stand, and what more needs to happen to develop it in Egypt?<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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