{"id":582745,"date":"2023-03-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/16\/the-us-banking-crisis-has-upended-expectations-for-fed-rate-policy\/"},"modified":"2023-03-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T00:00:00","slug":"the-us-banking-crisis-has-upended-expectations-for-fed-rate-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/16\/the-us-banking-crisis-has-upended-expectations-for-fed-rate-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"The US banking crisis has upended expectations for Fed rate policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>What a difference a week (and a banking crisis) makes:<\/span> Just a week <\/span>after fretting about the potential for a <\/span>larger-than-expected interest rate hike<\/a><\/span>, investors are now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin to cut interest rates as soon as June as the threat of a major banking crisis forces policymakers to prioritize financial stability over fighting inflation, according to the <\/span>Financial Times<\/a><\/span>. The collapse of two large regional banks last week and the potential knock-on effects in Europe mean that many bond traders now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged when it meets next week, despite data on Tuesday showing that <\/span>core inflation accelerated<\/a><\/span> in February.<\/span><\/p>\n

But analysts are torn:<\/span> Trying to predict whether the central bank will hold rates steady or follow through with a smaller 25-bps increase is a fool\u2019s game, with analysts split on how it will react to the crisis, <\/span>Reuters<\/a><\/span> says.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whichever way the Fed swings could have major implications: <\/span>Yet another rate hike risks further destabilizing the US banking sector, but a pause could end up undermining all the Fed has done over the past year to fight inflation. \u201cI think they do indeed hike 25 bps next week,\u201d one analyst said. \u201cThey need to keep up the fight on inflation to maintain credibility, and a pause here at these levels isn\u2019t going to stop the bleeding in the markets.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

14,724<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.2% (YTD: +0.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 30.84<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 30.94<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD at CIB<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 30.85<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 30.95<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates CBE<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.25% deposit<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.25% lending<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,049<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.6% (YTD: -4.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,525<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: -6.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3,310<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -0.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3,892<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +1.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 1<\/span>00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,344<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.8% (YTD: -1.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,035<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.5% (YTD: +6.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 74.33<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.0%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/span>(Nymex)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.44<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-5.2%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 1,931.30<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 24,548<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +48.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/span><\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 4.2% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/span> on turnover of EGP 1.91 bn (7.6% below the 90-day <\/span>average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 0.9% YTD.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the green: <\/span>CIRA Education (+10.3%), Eastern Company (+2.4%).<\/span><\/p>\n

In the red: <\/span>Qalaa Holding (-14.9%), Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (-13.2%) and Heliopolis Housing and Development (-13.1%).<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bond traders now expect the central bank to start cutting rates in June<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":582746,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,8780,119,349,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-582745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7b17635a-4cfe-4b06-ad6f-383009d4ed48","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/New-York-Stock-Exchange-1600.jpg","photo_position":"below","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"","related_issue":[582719],"teaser":"Bond 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