{"id":582654,"date":"2023-03-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/12\/inflation-surges-to-five-and-a-half-year-high-in-february-far-above-analysts-expectations\/"},"modified":"2023-03-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-12T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-surges-to-five-and-a-half-year-high-in-february-far-above-analysts-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/12\/inflation-surges-to-five-and-a-half-year-high-in-february-far-above-analysts-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation surges to five-and-a-half-year high in February, far above analysts\u2019 expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Inflation surged to a fresh high in February<\/span><span style=\"\"> on the back of a record increase in <\/span><span>food prices amid the ongoing depreciation of the EGP and higher demand going into Ramadan<\/span><span>.<\/span><span style=\"\">Figures released on Thursday by state statistics agency <\/span><span style=\"\">Capmas <\/span><span style=\"\">showed that annual urban inflation jumped 31.9% y-o-y in February, up from <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2023\/02\/12\/food-prices-hit-record-high-on-january-devaluation-96498\/\" style=\"\">25.8% the month before<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\">. Inflation is now at its highest sinc<\/span><span style=\"\">e July 2017,<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> when it was running at almost 33%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">This was much faster than expected:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Goldman Sachs and Naeem Holding had predicted <\/span><span style=\"\">inflation to come in at around 28%, according to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-03-09\/egypt-s-pre-ramadan-inflation-surge-puts-more-rate-hikes-in-play?srnd=premium-middle-east&leadSource=uverify%20wall\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\">, while the median forecast in a <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/africa\/egypt-february-inflation-seen-rising-highest-more-than-5-years-2023-03-07\/\" style=\"\">Reuters<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> poll of 14 economists had inflation accelerating to 26.7%. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Monthly inflation at 16-year high: <\/span><span style=\"\">Monthly headline inflation accelerated to 6.5% from 4.7% in <\/span><span style=\"\">January<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> \u2014 its sharpest incline since March 2007, according to Bloomberg. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">And record c<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">ore inflation:<\/span><span style=\"\">Core inflation \u2014 which strips out volatile items such as food and <\/span><span style=\"\">fuel \u2014 stood at 40.3% y-o-y in February, according to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/CPI-Press-Release-February-2023.pdf\" style=\"\">central bank data (pdf)<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\">. That\u2019s the highest core <\/span><span style=\"\">inflation figure since the central bank began releasing the data in 2009, per <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/egypts-annual-urban-consumer-inflation-increases-319-february-capmas-2023-03-09\/\" style=\"\">Reuters<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\">. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Monthly core inflation jumped to 8.1% from 6.3% in January.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Food price inflation hits record high for second month running: <\/span><span style=\"\">Annual inflation for food <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">and beverages \u2014 a key component of the basket used to measure the headline rate  \u2014 rose further to 61.8%, shooting past the previous record high of 48.0% the month before. Food prices were 14.4% higher compared with the month before, after rising 10.1% m-o-m in January. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Not just the weakening EGP: <\/span><span style=\"\">\u201cSupply disruptions and speculative behavior are clearly playing <\/span><span style=\"\">a bigger role in pushing prices higher rather than a pure reflection of a weakening EGP,\u201d  Mohamed Abu Basha, EFG Hermes Holding\u2019s head of macroeconomic research, <\/span><span style=\"\">said in a note.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> Egypt has already devalued its currency three times over the past year, causing it to lose almost half of its value against the greenback.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">The data will add to calls for the central bank to hike rates:<\/span><span style=\"\"> The central bank\u2019s Monetary <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">Policy Committee (MPC) is now widely expected to hike rates when it meets on Thursday, 30 March. The MPC kept rates on hold in a surprise move at its last meeting in January, saying it would wait to see the full impact of the 800 bps of hikes it made in 2022 to counter high inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Some analysts are calling a huge rate-hike \u2014 possibly in an unscheduled me<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">eting: <\/span><span>Goldman Sachs is expecting the CBE to increase interest rates by as much as 300 bps this month in response to the inflation data, according to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-03-10\/egyptian-inflation-shock-makes-huge-rate-hike-likely-for-goldman\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">. \u201cContaining inflation expectations and, in particular, improving domestic FX liquidity to ease chronic pressure on the EGP will require the Central Bank of Egypt to pursue tighter monetary policy in the coming months,\u201d Goldman MENA economist Farouk Soussa said in a report. Meanwhile, Naeem Brokerage thinks the central bank may call an \u201cemergency meeting\u201d ahead of raising rates by 200-300 bps.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">REFRESHER- Fresh <\/span><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;font-weight:700;text-decoration-skip-ink:none\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2023\/03\/09\/cabinet-signs-off-on-new-wage-pension-hikes-with-higher-price-tag-than-originally-projected-99198\/\" style=\"\">social support measures<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\"> land next month. <\/span><span style=\"\">The government will from <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">April raise public-sector wages and pensions and provide tax relief by raising the income tax exemption threshold, part of a fresh round of support to help households handle rising bills. The support program is expected to cost the public purse some EGP 190 bn. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Food prices and core inflation hit record highs during the month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":582655,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-582654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"43c9a65b-6ab3-459d-b3b2-f9114f0fb374","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/discount-markets-1600px.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"","related_issue":[582645],"teaser":"Food prices and core inflation hit record highs during the month.","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/3\/.017aa147-4506-4a51-99db-a896fdd291df.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation surges to five-and-a-half-year high in February, far above analysts\u2019 expectations - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/12\/inflation-surges-to-five-and-a-half-year-high-in-february-far-above-analysts-expectations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation surges to five-and-a-half-year high in February, far above 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