{"id":582148,"date":"2023-03-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/02\/govt-to-miss-deficit-debt-targets-on-higher-rates-import-bill\/"},"modified":"2023-03-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-02T00:00:00","slug":"govt-to-miss-deficit-debt-targets-on-higher-rates-import-bill","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/02\/govt-to-miss-deficit-debt-targets-on-higher-rates-import-bill\/","title":{"rendered":"Gov\u2019t to miss deficit, debt targets on higher rates, import bill"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">FinMin revises its deficit, debt figures for the current fiscal year: <\/span><span style=\"\">The Finance <\/span><span style=\"\">Ministry now expects the budget deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio to increase during the current fiscal year<\/span><span style=\"\"> as<\/span><span style=\"\"> the impact of the EGP devaluation a<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">nd rising borrowing costs squeeze public finances. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Budget deficit to rise:<\/span><span style=\"\"> The Finance Ministry now expects the budget deficit to rise to<\/span><span style=\"\"> 6.8%<\/span><span style=\"\"> of <\/span><span style=\"\">GDP this year, from <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2022\/07\/05\/budget-deficit-narrows-to-6-1-in-fy2021-2022-75302\/\" style=\"\">6.1%<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\"> last year, according to its<\/span><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/FinMin-mid-year-review-22-23.pdf\" style=\"\">mid-year review (pdf)<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\"> <\/span><span style=\"\">for FY 2022-2023, which ends in June. The government had initially targeted a <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2022\/03\/23\/cabinet-approves-austerity-budget-trims-gdp-outlook-67458\/\" style=\"\">6.1% deficit<\/a><\/span><span style=\"\"> in the<\/span><span style=\"\"> state budget. The budget deficit came in at 4.0% in the first half of this fiscal year. The revised figure for this fiscal year is in line with the latest forecast from S&P Global, which sees the deficit remaining high at <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2023\/01\/29\/sp-global-affirms-egypts-rating-on-exchange-rate-flexibility-amid-imf-gcc-support-94675\/\" style=\"\">roughly 7% of GDP<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> over the next three years. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Debt-to-GDP is set to inch back up, too: <\/span><span>The ministry is now predicting a debt level of <\/span><span>93.0% of GDP<\/span><span> by June 2023, up from an <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2022\/05\/10\/state-presents-revised-crisis-budget-to-the-house-with-more-spending-on-food-energy-health-and-education-70576\/\" style=\"\">earlier<\/a><\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2022\/05\/10\/state-presents-revised-crisis-budget-to-the-house-with-more-spending-on-food-energy-health-and-education-70576\/\" style=\"\">84.0%<\/a><\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2022\/05\/10\/state-presents-revised-crisis-budget-to-the-house-with-more-spending-on-food-energy-health-and-education-70576\/\" style=\"\">target<\/a><\/span><span>. Total debt-to-GDP declined to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zawya.com\/en\/economy\/africa\/egypt-eyes-reducing-debt-to-gdp-ratio-to-75-by-2026-gw1k3y5b\" style=\"\">87.2%<\/a><\/span><span> by June 2022 from <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2021\/07\/26\/egypt-beats-budget-deficit-primary-surplus-targets-in-2020-21-47935\/\" style=\"\">90.6%<\/a><\/span><span> a year earlier. The government wants to bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio to <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2022\/05\/16\/madbouly-announces-plans-to-privatize-state-assets-boost-private-investment-71163\/\" style=\"\">75%<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> by FY 2025-2026.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Debt + imports are getting pricier<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">:<\/span><span style=\"\"> Rising interest rates, higher commodity prices, and the <\/span><span style=\"\">impact of the EGP devaluation on the country\u2019s import bill are all putting pressure on the public purse. The projected average interest rate on government bonds and bills this fiscal year has risen to 18.0% from the 14.5% estimated in the budget, while the prices of oil and wheat have risen above the benchmark price used to calculate the budget.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">GDP growth is set to come in at 4.0-5.0%<\/span><span style=\"\"> for the 2022-2023 fiscal year<\/span><span style=\"\">, leaving room to improve on the<\/span><span> 4.0% growth the government predicted in a November <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/IMF-Staff-report.pdf\" style=\"\">letter of intent (pdf)<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> sent to the IMF to secure its USD 3 bn loan. The Madbouly government sees growth clocking in at 5.5-6.0% in the medium term.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">Everyone agrees: <\/span><span>The IMF, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a recent Reuters poll, the World Bank, and Fitch ratings are <\/span><span style=\"text-decoration-skip-ink:none;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2023\/02\/21\/ebrd-predicts-slower-gdp-growth-in-2023-97501\/\" style=\"\">all predicting growth<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\"> in the range of 4.0-4.8% this fiscal year. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><span style=\"font-weight:700\">What\u2019s next:<\/span><span style=\"\"> The ministry will present the draft FY 2023-2024 budget<\/span><span style=\"\"> to the House of <\/span><span>Representatives by 31 March<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400;\">,<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt is now predicting a debt level of 93.0% of GDP by June 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":582149,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[279,104,72,276],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-582148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-budget-watch","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-finance-ministry","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a82891c1-0dbe-4897-84fd-f8e2073fab1f","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/Finance-Ministry-1600.jpg","photo_position":"below","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"","related_issue":[582141],"teaser":"Egypt is now predicting a debt level of 93.0% of GDP by June 2023","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/3\/.a6190a89-d698-474b-b723-035f7f75f50e.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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The government currently expects to narrow the deficit to 6.3% in FY2020-2021.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/48.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544781,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/21\/govt-lowers-fy-2022-2023-budget-targets-as-ukraine-conflict-strains-finances\/","url_meta":{"origin":582148,"position":1},"title":"Gov\u2019t lowers FY 2022-2023 budget targets as Ukraine conflict strains finances","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"FinMin trims budget targets as Ukraine conflict weighs on state finances: The Finance Ministry has revised downwards its fiscal targets for FY 2022-2023 as rising commodities prices put pressure on public finances, according to figures published in an Ittihadiya statement yesterday evening.Deficit still on course to narrow: The government now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/272.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592909,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/12\/finance-ministry-eyes-6-4-growth-in-fy-2020-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":582148,"position":2},"title":"Finance Ministry eyes 6.4% growth in FY 2020-2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"BUDGET WATCH- FinMin says it\u2019s targeting 6.4% growth, 6.2% deficit next fiscal year: The Finance Ministry is eyeing GDP growth of 6.4% in FY2020-2021, up from a targeted 6% for the current fiscal year, according to the ministry\u2019s preliminary budget statement announced by cabinet yesterday. Local press reports had suggested\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/773.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598689,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/02\/finmin-to-set-new-medium-term-economic-targets-as-global-macro-headwinds-build\/","url_meta":{"origin":582148,"position":3},"title":"FinMin to set new medium-term economic targets as global macro headwinds build","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- FinMin to set new medium-term economic targets as global macro headwinds build: The Finance Ministry is on track to specify \u201cmore realistic\u201d medium-term targets for Egypt\u2019s key macro indicators in light of a challenging outlook for global growth and volatility in emerging markets, according to official documents seen by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/773.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563837,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/26\/egypt-beats-budget-deficit-primary-surplus-targets-in-2020-21\/","url_meta":{"origin":582148,"position":4},"title":"Egypt beats budget deficit, primary surplus targets in 2020-21","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s primary surplus, budget deficit beat expectations in 2020-2021: Egypt recorded a primary surplus of 1.4% of GDP, or around EGP 93.1 bn, during FY2020-2021, Ittihadiya said in a statement yesterday.This is comfortably higher than the 0.9% targeted by the government and better than the IMF\u2019s expectations for a 1%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/247.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597662,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/13\/budget-deficit-unexpectedly-narrows-in-fy-2022-2023-finmin\/","url_meta":{"origin":582148,"position":5},"title":"Budget deficit unexpectedly narrows in FY 2022-2023 -FinMin","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The budget deficit narrowed 0.1 percentage points y-o-y to 6.0%","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/549.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/582148","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=582148"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/582148\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/582141"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/582149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=582148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=582148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=582148"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=582148"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=582148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}