{"id":581388,"date":"2023-02-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/09\/foreign-investors-want-higher-rates-before-returning-to-egypt\/"},"modified":"2023-02-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-09T00:00:00","slug":"foreign-investors-want-higher-rates-before-returning-to-egypt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/09\/foreign-investors-want-higher-rates-before-returning-to-egypt\/","title":{"rendered":"Foreign investors want higher rates before returning to Egypt"},"content":{"rendered":"

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<\/span>Dovish CBE policy leaves EM investors disappointed:<\/span> Would-be emerging market <\/span>investors looking to return to Egypt after January\u2019s devaluations were disappointed by the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s decision not to hike interest rates last week, analysts tell <\/span>Bloomberg<\/a><\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

Flashback:<\/span> The central bank chose to <\/span>leave interest rates<\/a><\/span> unchanged at its policy meeting last week, defying analyst expectations which had forecast rates to rise by at least 100 bps following last month\u2019s currency devaluation. The CBE said it was waiting to see the impact of its huge 300-bps hike in December before increasing the policy rate further.<\/span><\/p>\n

Record yields:<\/span> Yields on EGP-debt have climbed sharply since <\/span>the devaluation<\/a><\/span> in early January. Lower demand has caused the yield on one-year t-bills to surge more than 400 bps over the past four weeks to a record high of 22.1%. Currently, al<\/span>most the entire yield curve<\/span> is above 22%, with only the extreme short- and long-ends of the curve lower. <\/span><\/p>\n

But real rates remain low:<\/span> Yields remain low on an inflation-adjusted basis as local prices soar. Annual urban inflation was running at a five-year high of <\/span>21.3%<\/a><\/span> in December, squeezing real returns for portfolio investors.<\/span><\/p>\n

And they could be about to turn negative:<\/span> Inflation data is expected to show this week that prices continued accelerating in January, with <\/span>analysts forecasting<\/a><\/span> u<\/span>rban inflation to hit 23.75%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investors want higher rates:<\/span> Investors were left disappointed by the central bank\u2019s decision to hold rates, Edwin Gutierrez, head of emerging-market sovereign debt at abrdn, told the news outlet. \u201cWe think it\u2019s a policy mistake and definitely caused some investors to rethink,\u201d he said. <\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s investors\u2019 turn to wait and see:<\/span> \u201cThe dovish surprise can\u2019t help but lead to some second-guessing of the bank\u2019s commitment to inflation and is just one more reason to wait for further clarity before jumping back into the local market,\u201d said an analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Just last month investors were talking of buying bonds again<\/span>, but are moving with caution after last week's CBE rate\u2019s policy. The pause \u201cmay have interrupted the recent momentum of policy decisions, which have been tentatively recreating the conditions for an attractive carry trade in the EGP,\u201d Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note.<\/span><\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect rates to stay where they are in the coming months:<\/span> Analysts expect the central bank to move on rates in coming meetings in response to rising inflation. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank thinks rates will rise by another 300 bps over the first six months of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Downgraded:<\/span> The comments come a day after Moody\u2019s <\/span>downgraded Egypt\u2019s credit rating<\/a><\/span> to B3 <\/span>\u2014<\/span> its first cut since 2013 \u2014 warning that transitioning to more sustainable sources of inflows will not reduce the country\u2019s external vulnerabilities overnight. \u201cWhile the situation may stabilize, Moody's does not expect Egypt's liquidity and external positions to rebound quickly,\u201d it said.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dovish CBE policy leaves EM investors disappointed: Would-be emerging market investors looking to return to Egypt after January\u2019s devaluations were disappointed by the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s decision not to hike interest rates last week, analysts tell Bloomberg. Flashback: The central bank chose to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting last week, defying […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":581389,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,119,10561,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-581388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-inflows","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"cbeab43f-11d9-4d7f-b550-5a709dbdb64b","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/CBE-1600.jpg","photo_position":"below","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"","related_issue":[581381],"teaser":"","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/2\/.b6cdef15-772f-4ebf-aa62-b2f8adbadd6f.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nForeign investors want higher rates before returning to Egypt - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/09\/foreign-investors-want-higher-rates-before-returning-to-egypt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Foreign investors want higher rates before returning to Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dovish CBE policy leaves EM investors disappointed: Would-be emerging market investors looking to return to Egypt after January\u2019s devaluations were disappointed by the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s decision not to hike interest rates last week, analysts tell Bloomberg. 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Ten of 11 analysts polled expect the bank to leave interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/4.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572495,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/28\/in-line-with-consensus-central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-in-june-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":581388,"position":3},"title":"In line with consensus, Central Bank of Egypt leaves rates on hold in June meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold, in line with expectations: The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting on Thursday, citing falling inflation, improving global financial conditions, and expectations of an economic recovery in a statement (pdf). This was in line with analysts and economists\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562014,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/04\/egypt-remains-top-carry-trade-as-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":581388,"position":4},"title":"Egypt remains top carry trade as CBE leaves rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting last Wednesday as policymakers looked to keep Egypt\u2019s carry trade the most attractive in the world \u2014 and anticipated heightened inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in a statement (pdf) following the meeting that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/18.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":584517,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/02\/cbe-delivers-large-rate-hike-to-curb-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":581388,"position":5},"title":"CBE delivers large rate hike to curb inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Move unlikely to spur new inflows, say analysts","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/15.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=581388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581388\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/581381"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/581389"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=581388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=581388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=581388"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=581388"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=581388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}