{"id":581328,"date":"2023-02-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/08\/moodys-downgrades-egypts-credit-rating-for-first-time-since-2013\/"},"modified":"2023-02-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-08T00:00:00","slug":"moodys-downgrades-egypts-credit-rating-for-first-time-since-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/08\/moodys-downgrades-egypts-credit-rating-for-first-time-since-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s downgrades Egypt\u2019s credit rating for first time since 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"

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<\/span>Moody\u2019s downgraded Egypt\u2019s credit rating yesterday fo<\/span>r the first time <\/span>since<\/a><\/span>2013<\/a><\/span> <\/span>due to \u201creduced external buffers and shock absorption capacity.\u201d In its first rating action <\/span>since last May<\/a><\/span>, the agency <\/span>said<\/a><\/span> it was lowering its rating to B3 from B2 and changed its outlook to stable from negative. <\/span><\/p>\n

Why now?<\/span> FX reserves have declined since the agency cut its outlook to negative in May 2022 <\/span>and the banking system\u2019s net foreign liability position has increased, heightening vulnerability, the agency says, <\/span>at a time of uncertainty for the global economy. Liquid reserves have fallen to USD 26.7 bn from USD 29.3 bn since April while net foreign liabilities are now at USD 20 bn, compared to USD 13 bn.<\/span><\/p>\n

No quick fix: <\/span>The agency notes that while the renewed privatization momentum injected by the <\/span>recent IMF agreement will create more sustainable sources of capital inflows, the process of reducing the country\u2019s external vulnerabilities are going to take time. <\/span>\u201cWhile the situation may stabilize, Moody's does not expect Egypt's liquidity and external positions to rebound quickly,\u201d it said. <\/span><\/p>\n

The rationale behind \u201cstable<\/span>\u201d<\/span>:<\/span> Higher domestic borrowing costs, tight conditions in the <\/span>international capital markets, and rising social spending will be balanced by the government\u2019s strong domestic funding base and good track record of delivering primary budget surpluses. Delivering on the structural reforms in the IMF agreement and boosting exports and FDI is an upside risk in Moody\u2019s forecast.<\/span><\/p>\n

Exchange-rate switch will be good for the medium term, but:<\/span> \u201cAdhering to a fully flexible <\/span>exchange rate will be credit positive for Egypt over the medium term\u201d though this will be complicated by high inflation and rising domestic borrowing costs, the agency said. \u201cThis complexity raises questions about the central bank's and government's capacity to manage the full consequences of the transition.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Watch these for an upgrade:<\/span> Moody\u2019s will consider upgrading its rating if structural reforms <\/span>produce a shift towards a sustainable model of FX generation. Rising non-oil exports and strengthening FX reserves fuelled by non-debt creating inflows will be credit positive, as will improving fiscal indicators.<\/span><\/p>\n

And for a downgrade:<\/span> Egypt\u2019s rating could be further downgraded if reform commitments fail to <\/span>materialize or if there is a significant deterioration in the country\u2019s debt\/GDP or interest\/revenue metrics.<\/span><\/p>\n

S&P wasn\u2019t quite as downbeat when it issued its latest rating last month:<\/span> The agency <\/span>affirmed the country\u2019s B rating<\/a><\/span> with a stable outlook, saying that fresh support from the IMF and the GCC will bolster Egypt\u2019s ability to cover its funding needs.<\/span><\/p>\n

And Fitch?<\/span> The third of the big three rating agencies <\/span>cut its outlook to negative<\/a><\/span> in November <\/span>due to rising external vulnerabilities and said that further strains could result in a downgrade. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Due to reduced external buffers and shock absorption capacity<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":581329,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,1324],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-581328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-moodys","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6410f1ca-48c0-44a5-bb82-331386644ca4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/EGP-1600.jpg","photo_position":"below","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"","related_issue":[581321],"teaser":"Due to reduced external buffers and shock absorption capacity","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/2\/.8d7a8187-97c1-4b2f-8b92-41f2a243a9a2.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nMoody\u2019s downgrades Egypt\u2019s credit rating for first time since 2013 - 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Egypt\u2019s credit rating remains at B2 with a stable outlook. \u201cRelatively weak but improving\u201d governance indicators are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/269.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":582100,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/13\/moodys-downgrades-five-banks-deposit-ratings-on-sovereign-credit-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":581328,"position":1},"title":"Moody\u2019s downgrades five banks\u2019 deposit ratings on sovereign credit risk","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s has downgraded the long-term deposit ratings of five Egyptian banks on the back of its downgrade last week of the country\u2019s sovereign credit rating. The National Bank of Egypt (NBE), Banque Misr, Banque du Caire (BdC) and CIB have all seen their ratings downgraded to B3 from B2, the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/banking-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570911,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/22\/egypts-reforms-could-shield-the-economy-from-covid-19-shocks-moodys\/","url_meta":{"origin":581328,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s reforms could shield the economy from covid-19 shocks -Moody\u2019s","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s reforms could shield the economy from covid-19 shocks -Moody\u2019s: Egypt\u2019s track record of economic reform commitment and strong FX reserves are expected to shield its credit rating from shocks caused by the covid-19 pandemic, Moody\u2019s said in a credit opinion last week (pdf). The ratings agency says remaining committed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546769,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/29\/moodys-egypt-outlook-turns-negative-on-rising-downside-risks\/","url_meta":{"origin":581328,"position":3},"title":"Moody\u2019s Egypt outlook turns negative on \u201crising downside risks\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s has cut its outlook on Egypt\u2019s credit rating to negative as tightening financing conditions puts pressure on the country\u2019s ability to make external debt repayments, it said on Thursday. The ratings agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B2 rating but warned that a further drop in foreign reserves could force it to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597660,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/13\/what-the-pundits-are-saying-about-our-economy-this-morning-from-expectations-of-devaluation-to-a-possible-moodys-downgrade\/","url_meta":{"origin":581328,"position":4},"title":"What the pundits are saying about our economy this morning, from expectations of devaluation to a possible Moody\u2019s downgrade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s is watching the reform program closely, while Citigroup is turning bearish on our USD bonds","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/545.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558197,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/01\/moodys-still-likes-egypt-sees-economy-growing-5-5-this-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":581328,"position":5},"title":"Moody\u2019s still likes Egypt, sees economy growing 5.5% this year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s has affirmed Egypt\u2019s credit rating at B2 with a stable outlook that balances the country\u2019s \u201csignificant shock exposure\u201d with our track record of successfully weathering volatility, the ratings agency said in its latest review of Egypt\u2019s credit rating on Thursday.The rationale: The country\u2019s \u201cvolatile financing conditions,\u201d due to \u201cvery\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/31.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=581328"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581328\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/581321"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/581329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=581328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=581328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=581328"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=581328"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=581328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}