{"id":580920,"date":"2023-01-25T13:35:44","date_gmt":"2023-01-25T13:35:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/25\/why-chinas-population-has-started-to-fall-and-what-that-means-for-the-global-economy\/"},"modified":"2023-01-25T13:35:44","modified_gmt":"2023-01-25T13:35:44","slug":"why-chinas-population-has-started-to-fall-and-what-that-means-for-the-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/25\/why-chinas-population-has-started-to-fall-and-what-that-means-for-the-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Why China\u2019s population has started to fall \u2014 and what that means for the global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> China\u2019s population decline could spell trouble for the global economy: <\/strong>The Chinese government last week announced that in 2022 the country recorded some 9.6 mn births and 10.4 mn deaths, marking the first time China has seen its population decline since the 1960s. Last year\u2019s birth rate was the lowest since at least 1950, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. Despite efforts in recent years to scale back the country\u2019s one-child policy, officials in China have been unsuccessful in avoiding the population decline, which could have far reaching effects on the global economy and its prospects for growth.<\/p>\n

The country\u2019s manufacturing capabilities will be put to the test:<\/strong> As China\u2019s working-age population continues to decline over the coming years \u2014 about 0.2% every year until 2030, according to S&P Global Ratings\u2019 most recent estimates<\/a> \u2014 economic growth is expected to come under strain.<\/p>\n

The implications on the global economy are not insignificant: <\/strong>A shrinking labor force and less productive manufacturing sector could mean higher prices for goods sold in Western countries already reeling from high inflation.<\/p>\n

A shrinking population brings with it a risk of slower consumption: <\/strong>While economic growth in China has long been driven by its position as a global manufacturing powerhouse, in recent years growing domestic consumption has also become a considerable growth engine<\/a> that was expected to help carry much of the weight in the country\u2019s future economic expansion. Now with a dwindling population, China\u2019s consumption-led expectations of growth are also under threat.<\/p>\n

This is all taking place far sooner than authorities expected: <\/strong>A shrinking population is fairly common in countries where a larger population of more affluent people starts to emerge, as seen elsewhere in the region, including in South Korea<\/a> and Japan<\/a>. The problem with China<\/a> is that its population decline comes at a time when its economy is still solidly middle income.<\/p>\n

And despite government efforts to curb this trend: <\/strong>The Chinese government has introduced incentives like tax cuts and stimulus packages for parents with newborn babies since it brought its one-child policy to an end in 2016, but these policies haven\u2019t been successful, the New York Times<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

The decline coincides with a low point for the Chinese economy: <\/strong>China\u2019s economy last year grew at its second slowest pace<\/a> in about four decades \u2014 only 3%, down from 8.1% in the previous year. Its poor performance in 2022 is only eclipsed by 2020 when the full force of covid lockdowns brought economic growth to some 2.4%<\/p>\n

Lasting effects of the country\u2019s one child policy have left a significant gender imbalance in the country\u2019s demographic makeup.<\/strong> Currently there are about 722 mn men and 690 mn women living in China. The unusually deep gender imbalance<\/a> is more pronounced in rural areas and has led to more young people staying single for longer.<\/p>\n

The high cost of raising a kid is also partially behind this:<\/strong> Young people in China are increasingly finding they can\u2019t afford to have kids thanks in part to rising childcare costs, the NYT reports. For others, the pandemic and the government's heavy-handed policies towards containing its spread have caused them to question whether it's the right time to be having children.<\/p>\n

But China\u2019s fate isn\u2019t sealed just yet: <\/strong>Addressing underemployment among its working-age population in both urban centers and rural towns could help stymie the negative effects of a dwindling and aging population over the coming years. Plus, more automation and technology-assisted manufacturing could help patch up productivity slumps at factories. \u201cEconomic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth,\u201d Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management told Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s population decline could spell trouble for the global economy: The Chinese government last week announced that in 2022 the country recorded some 9.6 mn births and 10.4 mn deaths, marking the first time China has seen its population decline since the 1960s. Last year\u2019s birth rate was the lowest since at least 1950, Bloomberg […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":580921,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[116,104,633,131],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-580920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-china","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-manufacturing","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e7104e7d-c71e-4a73-a8e1-01627d5ee1d9","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/748.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[580905],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhy China\u2019s population has started to fall \u2014 and what that means for the global economy - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/25\/why-chinas-population-has-started-to-fall-and-what-that-means-for-the-global-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why China\u2019s population has started to fall \u2014 and what that means for the global economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China\u2019s population decline could spell trouble for the global economy: The Chinese government last week announced that in 2022 the country recorded some 9.6 mn births and 10.4 mn deaths, marking the first time China has seen its population decline since the 1960s. 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Africa and Asia will account for most of the world\u2019s population growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth watching"","block_context":{"text":"Worth watching","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-watching\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1395.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":552975,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/the-number-of-mnaires-in-the-world-is-expected-to-grow-by-40-by-2026\/","url_meta":{"origin":580920,"position":5},"title":"The number of mn\u2019aires in the world is expected to grow by 40% by 2026","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"B\u2019naires might have lost out this year (not that they\u2019re likely to miss it), but the number of m\u2019naires is on the rise. The number of people around the world with at least USD 1 mn in assets will grow to surpass 87 mn by 2026, up 40% from the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/443.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580920\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/580905"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/580921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580920"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=580920"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=580920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}