{"id":580604,"date":"2023-01-09T13:18:58","date_gmt":"2023-01-09T13:18:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/what-will-impact-emerging-markets-in-2023\/"},"modified":"2023-01-09T13:18:58","modified_gmt":"2023-01-09T13:18:58","slug":"what-will-impact-emerging-markets-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/what-will-impact-emerging-markets-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"What will impact emerging markets in 2023?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Last year was a tough one for emerging markets. What will 2023 bring? <\/strong>Emerging markets had a rough ride last year. Aggressive monetary tightening led by the US Federal Reserve combined with inflation and commodities shocks to bring currency woes, losses in stocks and bonds, and even debt defaults for some EMs. With economists still warning of global recession threats around the corner, what does this year have in store for already struggling EMs?<\/p>\n

The bulls are gaining strength: <\/strong>Things may have seemed bleak for many EM countries lately, but optimists have not been deterred by the trials of 2022. In fact, their ranks are swelling: Rising positive sentiment during 4Q 2022 led to bulls outnumbering bears on EM assets for the first time in 1.5 years by December, according to an HSBC poll picked up by Reuters<\/a>. Of the 118 institutional investors surveyed, 29% said they were bullish on the asset class over the next three months, almost double the number in the previous survey in September. Investors harboring a bearish outlook fell to 18% from 41% previously.<\/p>\n

The state of EM debt:<\/strong> In 2022, 25% of EM countries and more than 60% of low-income nations were on the edge of debt distress<\/a>, while Sri Lanka and Ghana were among EMs that fell off that edge and into default. Many EM countries looked to alternative forms of debt relief<\/a> amid tough times last year, including borrowing from private banks or non-governmental sources \u2014 which entails serious drawbacks from shorter payback times to higher interest rates and difficulty in negotiating or rescheduling payments. That said, \u201cthere's not actually a lot of debt maturing next year,\u201d one EM analyst tells Reuters<\/a>, adding that Pakistan is the country \u201cprobably most at risk\u201d of a 2023 default.<\/p>\n

A softer USD? <\/strong>With the Federal Reserve poised to slow \u2014 and perhaps even halt \u2014 its tightening cycle, the greenback should weaken further this year following a surge in 2022, writes<\/a> Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley\u2019s wealth management unit. This will provide much-needed relief to EM countries whose currencies and debt positions have come under pressure from the stronger USD. That said, any recovery in EMs will be curtailed if persistent inflation forces the Fed to continue raising rates for longer and the greenback remains strong.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s re-emergence:<\/strong> The Chinese economy is expected to rebound this year on the back of Beijing\u2019s decision to drop its zero-covid policy. A Nikkei survey<\/a> of 37 analysts and economists is predicting the economy to grow 4.7% this year, up from 3.0% in 2022, as the government relaxes its strict virus curbs. A pick-up in demand in China will be good news for emerging economies, particularly commodity exporters, for whom China is one of their biggest trading partners. Chinese assets also account for one third of market capitalization in most EM benchmark indices.<\/p>\n

Slowing growth:<\/strong> Despite a Chinese rebound, most analysts are expecting GDP in other EM nations to slow in 2023 as a downturn in the US and Europe cancels out rising demand in the east and economies continue to feel the impact of higher interest rates and the spillover effects of the war in Ukraine. JPMorgan<\/a> is forecasting growth in EM (excluding China) to weaken to 1.8% this year, while S&P Global Ratings recently cut its yearly forecast<\/a> for emerging economies (excluding China and Saudi Arabia) to 3.8%. \u201cThe economic downturns along with the aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical and commodity shocks that induce them will be temporarily painful in financial and emerging markets,\u201d said David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist at Deutsche Bank, according to Reuters.<\/p>\n

Inflation will remain a problem in many emerging economies this year<\/strong>, though a slowdown in some countries on the back of falling commodities prices will allow central banks \u2014 mainly in Latin America \u2014 to begin cutting interest rates, according to JPMorgan. \u201cInflation is expected to remain a problem for central banks in roughly half of the core EM countries. Some EM central banks may start easing next year but most look set to keep rates high for longer,\u201d said Luis Oganes, who heads up currencies, commodities and EM research at the bank.<\/p>\n

Ukraine will remain a wildcard:<\/strong> Geopolitical and economic risks emanating from the war in Ukraine will persist. The conflict has already upended global energy supply chains, disrupted food security across the world and triggered a wave of inflation, and the economic impact of an escalation of the conflict or new sanctions on the Russian economy will be unpredictable and potentially severe.<\/p>\n

To the polls: <\/strong>Elections are set to take place across EMs, including Nigeria, Argentina and Poland. The upcoming presidential election in Turkey might prove to be the most impactful leadership contest as far as the MENA region is concerned. The president\u2019s personal approval ratings have tanked in recent months as the global economic shocks combined with his unorthodox monetary policy to leave the country dealing with surging inflation and a currency at record lows against the USD.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last year was a tough one for emerging markets. What will 2023 bring? Emerging markets had a rough ride last year. Aggressive monetary tightening led by the US Federal Reserve combined with inflation and commodities shocks to bring currency woes, losses in stocks and bonds, and even debt defaults for some EMs. With economists still […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":580605,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250],"tags":[7106,115,633,348,182,349,643,1341],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-580604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macro-picture","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterprisepm","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-macro-picture","tag-russia-ukraine-conflict","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"eca28dba-35ae-4830-a504-82c3eaeadd28","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/620.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[580589],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat will impact emerging markets in 2023? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/what-will-impact-emerging-markets-in-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What will impact emerging markets in 2023?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last year was a tough one for emerging markets. 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EMs have racked up significant debts since the 2008 global financial crisis, and are scheduled to repay nearly USD 800 bn-worth of debt on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550819,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/em-debt-is-under-pressure-but-after-headwinds-subside-latin-america-could-be-in-for-a-windfall\/","url_meta":{"origin":580604,"position":1},"title":"EM debt is under pressure \u2014 but after headwinds subside, Latin America could be in for a windfall","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"US real yields turning positive to raise pressure on EMs: The inflation-adjusted 10-year yield on US treasuries turned briefly positive last week, sounding alarm bells among emerging-market money managers, Bloomberg reports. US-based Franklin Templeton said it would cut its positions in high-yield debt, while Fidelity International is betting against EM\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/537.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571453,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/12\/ems-turn-to-local-debt-markets-burn-through-fx-reserves-to-weather-the-covid-storm\/","url_meta":{"origin":580604,"position":2},"title":"EMs turn to local debt markets, burn through FX reserves to weather the covid storm","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EMs turn to local debt markets, burn through FX reserves to weather the covid storm: Emerging markets are (kind of unexpectedly) not being beaten to a pulp by the current economic crisis \u2014 thanks in large part to their local debt markets, Ashmore global head of research Jan Dehn said\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/124.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/24\/the-imfs-emerging-markets-outlook-is-looking-sluggish-amid-expectations-for-subdued-global-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":580604,"position":3},"title":"The IMF\u2019s emerging markets outlook is looking sluggish amid expectations for \u201csubdued\u201d global growth","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF\u2019s emerging markets outlook is looking sluggish amid expectations for \u201csubdued\u201d global growth: The IMF has revised downwards its forecasts for emerging markets\u2019 GDP growth in its July update of the World Economic Outlook, saying it sees EMs growing 4.1% and 4.7% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The figures\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/2565.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544327,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/27\/the-case-for-investing-in-em-economies-has-rarely-been-weaker-argues-the-ft\/","url_meta":{"origin":580604,"position":4},"title":"The case for investing in EM economies has \u201crarely been weaker,\u201d argues the FT","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"With EM economies facing slowing growth, soaring debt, and imminent US interest rate hikes, the case for investing in them has \u201crarely been weaker,\u201d argues Jonathan Wheatley in the Financial Times. Amid the ongoing covid-19 pandemic, many EM economies have accrued high levels of debt, which they relied on to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/560.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594326,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/usd-debt-exposure-an-achilles-heel-for-ems-right-now-fitch-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":580604,"position":5},"title":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says: Of all the macro issues emerging markets have to worry about, the biggest concern for them at the current moment is their exposure to USD-denominated external debt as the USD strengthens, Fitch Solutions\u2019 Michael Larson said in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2055.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580604\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/580589"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/580605"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580604"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=580604"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=580604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}