{"id":580370,"date":"2022-12-21T14:10:24","date_gmt":"2022-12-21T14:10:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/21\/soaring-global-debt-is-about-to-get-expensive\/"},"modified":"2022-12-21T14:10:24","modified_gmt":"2022-12-21T14:10:24","slug":"soaring-global-debt-is-about-to-get-expensive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/21\/soaring-global-debt-is-about-to-get-expensive\/","title":{"rendered":"Soaring global debt is about to get expensive"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> After years of cheap borrowing, the global debt pile is growing increasingly<\/strong> unsustainable \u2014 especially for developing countries:<\/strong> A decade of cheap borrowing has led to a whopping global debt pile of USD 290 tn for households, businesses and governments, up by more than one-third from a decade ago, according to research from the Institute for International Finance<\/a>. Global debt has actually decreased this year \u2014 after peaking on the back of a flurry of borrowing during the worst of the covid-19 pandemic \u2014 but the debt service burden is growing as a result of a steep global monetary tightening wave.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a problem for everyone, but some have it worse than others:<\/strong> Higher debt loans will squeeze economies already struggling with a cost-of-living crisis, reports Bloomberg<\/a>. But while developed countries will undoubtedly feel the strain, the danger is more acute for developing countries \u2014 especially those that borrow in USD \u2014 who face debt distress.<\/p>\n

Level with governments, corporates were the biggest borrowers of cheap money<\/strong>, most recently through pandemic support packages. While emergency measures kept many companies afloat during a tough time, there is a risk of a rise in so-called \u201czombie\u201d firms \u2014 which essentially earn only enough to service their debt, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Chief Economist Beata Javorcik said, according to Reuters<\/a>. The risk of contagion from these corporates would infect the progression of healthy firms in economies, by bringing down investment, revenue, and employment, Javorcik said. Zombie firms are more present in economies dominated by government-run companies and banks, according to the EBRD\u2019s latest Transition Report (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Advanced economies saw the biggest drop in debt<\/strong>, with public and private debt dropping 5% of GDP last year, but for low-income countries, total debt rose to reach 88% of GDP, driven by higher private debt, reports Reuters<\/a>. With debt levels the way they are, there are concerns of low- and middle-income countries to repay their debts, with 25% of emerging market countries and 60% of low-income countries are on the border of debt distress, the IMF said in a blog post<\/a> accompanying its first Global Debt Monitor. Total public and private debt dropped 10 percentage points to 247% from its peak level of 257% a year earlier, the IMF said.<\/p>\n

For the poorest countries, debt defaults means having less to spend on essential sectors and policies <\/strong>such as health, education, or adapting to climate change. Many have looked to alternative forms of debt relief \u2014 borrowing from private banks or non-governmental sources, with the Guardian<\/a> reporting that by close of 2021, 61% of long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt worth USD 3.6 tn was owed to private creditors rather than Paris Club (officials from major creditor countries) or other official creditors, compared to 46% in 2010.<\/p>\n

But alternative creditors present serious drawbacks<\/strong> \u2014 half the payback time scale, high interest rates and difficulty in negotiating or rescheduling payments. If a country defaults on a private bank loan, the debt restructuring process does not give priority to economic and developmental concerns or the sustainability of the repayments. The lack of debt transparency is a key constraint to a country\u2019s return to economic stability, the World Bank said earlier this month<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A strain on sustainable development:<\/strong> The damage of large debt will depend on how high central banks push interest rates, and while these look set to continue (see the Federal Reserve\u2019s most recent hike) the global effects are yet to come.The prospect of debt distress, which the World Bank put at 60% of low-income countries and more than 25% of middle-income countries, will endanger nations abilities to invest in the Sustainable Development Goals, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development\u2019s Trade and Development Report (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Less liquidity for households: <\/strong>Consumers are already feeling the effect of higher central bank rates on their monthly budgets, as housing debt will dominate, leaving less disposable income for goods and luxuries but also other necessities, like bills, education or future planning. Canadian, Australian and South Korean households are the most exposed as their countries dodged a housing or banking crash in the Great Recession and have a large share of floating-rate mortgages.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not just mortgage debt that households need to account for: <\/strong>For the UK, debt payments will exceed 10% of all household incomes, while Scandis in Sweden and Norway should account 15% of their salaries to repayments, Bloomberg says.<\/p>\n

Mounting debt, high inflation and low growth create an unsustainable burden that may lead to a global economic crash<\/strong>, says economist Nouriel Roubini, according to Business Insider<\/a>. While raising interest rates may combat soaring prices (see: the Central Bank of Egypt<\/a> and the US Federal Reserve<\/a>, among others) Roubini warns that households and companies may no longer have the ability to meet their loan repayment commitments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After years of cheap borrowing, the global debt pile is growing increasingly unsustainable \u2014 especially for developing countries: A decade of cheap borrowing has led to a whopping global debt pile of USD 290 tn for households, businesses and governments, up by more than one-third from a decade ago, according to research from the Institute […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":580371,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250],"tags":[7106,104,633,349,643],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-580370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macro-picture","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-interest-rates","tag-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a113cd03-ebcc-4d0c-b14a-74292dcc40f7","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/766.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[580355],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nSoaring global debt is about to get expensive - 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Statistics published by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) shows that debt-to-GDP levels among developing economies has risen to 49.7% in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/1569.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569712,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/04\/the-real-problem-with-africas-pile-of-eurobond-debt-is-the-repayment-terms-not-just-the-amount-of-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":580370,"position":1},"title":"The real problem with Africa\u2019s pile of eurobond debt is the repayment terms, not just the amount of debt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The real problem with Africa\u2019s pile of eurobond debt is the repayment terms, not just the amount of debt, African Development Bank President Akinwumi Adesini tells Bloomberg. Africa currently isn\u2019t facing a debt crisis, but governments seem to be avoiding negotiating more favorable terms for eurobond issuance and commercial loans.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/58.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/28\/em-state-owned-enterprises-rising-debt-is-a-growing-concern-for-govt-finances-says-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":580370,"position":2},"title":"EM state-owned enterprises\u2019 rising debt is a \u201cgrowing concern\u201d for gov\u2019t finances, says IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging market state-owned enterprises\u2019 rising debt burdens are a \u201cgrowing concern\u201d for government finances, as they currently account for \u201ca significant portion\u201d of all EM debt securities, the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability report (pdf). EM state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have capitalized on \u201ceasy global financial conditions\u201d over the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1571.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573355,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/29\/developing-economies-are-threatened-with-distress-as-they-struggle-to-pay-down-their-growing-debt-piles\/","url_meta":{"origin":580370,"position":3},"title":"Developing economies are threatened with distress as they struggle to pay down their growing debt piles","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Growing debt piles are becoming increasingly insurmountable for some developing economies as they struggle to find the resources to repay bns of USD borrowed from private investors over the past decade, the Wall Street Journal says. The pandemic has made matters worse, but these countries were already ill-prepared to both\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/244.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565398,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/06\/growing-global-debt-pile-could-lead-to-market-shock-down-the-line\/","url_meta":{"origin":580370,"position":4},"title":"Growing global debt pile could lead to market shock down the line","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Central bankers may have righted the ship, but investors are struggling to find returns and diversify their portfolios as stimulus distorts markets and fuels more debt, John Plender writes in this piece for the Financial Times.Risk perception is out of whack: As ultra-low interest rates and stimulus squash bonds yields,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569332,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/20\/fears-rise-as-african-governments-amass-record-breaking-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":580370,"position":5},"title":"Fears rise as African governments amass record-breaking debt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"African governments amass record-breaking debt, raising concerns on repayment: African countries have amassed FX-denominated sovereign debts at a record rate over the past few years, fueling concerns that some governments will struggle to repay these debts as they mature during the next decade, reports the Financial Times. The borrowing frenzy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/267.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580370"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580370\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/580355"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/580371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580370"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=580370"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=580370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}