{"id":579158,"date":"2023-01-29T04:07:29","date_gmt":"2023-01-29T04:07:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/29\/economy-to-grow-4-8-this-fiscal-year-reuters-poll\/"},"modified":"2023-01-29T04:07:29","modified_gmt":"2023-01-29T04:07:29","slug":"economy-to-grow-4-8-this-fiscal-year-reuters-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/29\/economy-to-grow-4-8-this-fiscal-year-reuters-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy to grow 4.8% this fiscal year -Reuters poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The economy could grow more than the gov\u2019t thinks this fiscal year: <\/strong>The economy will grow at a 4.8% clip in FY 2022-2023, according to a Reuters poll<\/a> of economists. That\u2019s down from 6.6% last year, but above government forecasts. The Madbouly government is currently predicting GDP growth to come in at 4.0% this year, down from its previous forecast for 5.0% growth. Preliminary figures<\/a> released in November indicated that the economy grew by 4.4% during 1Q.<\/p>\n

Consensus among international players is that growth come in at about 4.5% this year: <\/strong>The World Bank is expecting our economy to grow 4.5%<\/a> for the current fiscal year, while the IMF<\/a> and Fitch<\/a> are both predicting 4.4% growth tempered by inflation, a slowdown in public investments and a belated recovery for the tourism sector.<\/p>\n

Erring on the side of caution: <\/strong>The government unveiled its most recent forecast in a letter of intent (pdf)<\/a> sent to the IMF to secure its USD 3 bn loan<\/a>. \u201cUncertainty surrounding the growth forecast is particularly large at this juncture and risks are skewed to the downside given the challenging external environment, namely tighter financial conditions, and high food and energy prices,\u201d it wrote.<\/p>\n

Speaking for the downside risk:<\/strong> Callee Davis, economist at Oxford Economics Africa, tells Reuters she believes growth will weaken to just 1.4% this year and 3.0% over the medium term on lower receipts from the privatization program and a slowdown in state spending on infrastructure projects.<\/p>\n

Medium-term growth below gov\u2019t \/ IMF forecasts<\/strong>: <\/strong>The Reuters poll returned median growth forecasts of 4.5%, 5.3%, and 5.4% during the next three fiscal years. This is lower than the IMF\u2019s projections for 5.3%, 5.7%, and 5.9% growth,and below the government\u2019s medium-term forecast for 5.5-6% growth.<\/p>\n

A surprise strengthening of the exchange rate?<\/strong> The economists Reuters polled see the currency strengthening to 26.24 to the greenback by the end of the current fiscal year in June, from 29.94 currently. The EGP will then weaken again to 28.50 during the following year, according to the survey.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The economy could grow more than the gov\u2019t thinks this fiscal year: The economy will grow at a 4.8% clip in FY 2022-2023, according to a Reuters poll of economists. That\u2019s down from 6.6% last year, but above government forecasts. The Madbouly government is currently predicting GDP growth to come in at 4.0% this year, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":579159,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-579158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c07707c9-cb74-42d5-9e9c-3207f3a64a2d","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/473.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[579151],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEconomy to grow 4.8% this fiscal year -Reuters poll - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/29\/economy-to-grow-4-8-this-fiscal-year-reuters-poll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economy to grow 4.8% this fiscal year -Reuters poll\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The economy could grow more than the gov\u2019t thinks this fiscal year: The economy will grow at a 4.8% clip in FY 2022-2023, according to a Reuters poll of economists. 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"Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/865.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556369,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/24\/egyptian-economy-to-grow-5-1-this-fiscal-year-reuters-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":579158,"position":3},"title":"Egyptian economy to grow 5.1% this fiscal year -Reuters poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth of the Egyptian economy will continue to accelerate in FY 2021-2022, expanding at a 5.1% clip before climbing to 5.5% in the following two years as the country continues to recover from the covid-19 pandemic, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. The economy grew 3.3% in FY 2020-2021,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/238.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570943,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/23\/egyptian-economy-to-grow-3-5-in-fy2020-2021-reuters-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":579158,"position":4},"title":"Egyptian economy to grow 3.5% in FY2020-2021 \u2013Reuters poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egyptian economy to grow 3.5% in FY2020-2021 \u2013Reuters poll: Egypt\u2019s economy will grow at a 3.5% clip in FY2020-2021, down from 5.9% in a similar poll just three months ago, according to a Reuters poll of economists. 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