{"id":578949,"date":"2023-01-19T04:15:08","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T04:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/19\/fitch-ratings-is-positive-on-imf-agreement-egp-float-but\/"},"modified":"2023-01-19T04:15:08","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T04:15:08","slug":"fitch-ratings-is-positive-on-imf-agreement-egp-float-but","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/19\/fitch-ratings-is-positive-on-imf-agreement-egp-float-but\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Ratings is positive on IMF agreement, EGP float, but\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> IMF pact, EGP flexibility get the thumbs up from Fitch: <\/strong>Our USD 3 bn loan agreement with the IMF and the move to a permanently flexible exchange rate regime have garnered praise in a note from Fitch Ratings<\/a>. The catch: Our sovereign debt remains at risk of a downgrade if our external position continues to be squeezed in the short term, the rating agency warns.<\/p>\n

TL;DR:<\/strong> \u201cThe EGP\u2019s depreciation since the start of the year provides evidence of the authorities\u2019 emerging commitment to exchange-rate flexibility, which, if sustained, should have a positive influence on the sovereign\u2019s credit profile in the longer term,\u201d Fitch writes. \u201cIn 2016 depreciation helped to boost fiscal revenues while eroding spending in real terms. Our baseline assumption is that a similar dynamic will play out in 2023, but less fiscally beneficial outcomes are possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

The caveat: \u201c<\/strong>Further external financing strains, undermining recovery of international reserves and other liquidity buffers, could lead us to downgrade Egypt\u2019s rating,\u201d Fitch writes.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The rating agency affirmed Egypt\u2019s rating at \u201cB+\u201d in November<\/a> while revising the outlook to \u201cnegative\u201d down from \u201cstable\u201d due to \u201cdeterioration\u201d in the country\u2019s external liquidity position.<\/p>\n

Reaching agreement on the IMF package helped unlock USD 6 bn in inflows this fiscal year<\/strong>, Fitch says, \u201cincluding the first USD 750 mn disbursement from the [IMF], another USD 3.75 bn from multilateral sources and USD 1.5 bn from sukuk bond issuance.\u201d Policymakers have penciled in another 12 bn in net FDI and proceeds from the privatization push<\/a> in FY 2022-2023, Fitch says.<\/p>\n

But we still have an external financing gap to fill: <\/strong>Fitch estimates our external financing needs at USD 19 bn this fiscal year and at least USD 22.5 bn next fiscal year. That includes \u201ca narrowing but still large current-account deficit of 3.1% of GDP\u201d or more than USD 13 bn<\/strong>, and external debt maturities of some USD 15.5 bn this fiscal year and next. It doesn\u2019t include some USD 14 bn worth of bilateral debt maturing this fiscal year and next, including some of the recent deposits<\/a> from our Gulf neighbors, which are expected to be rolled over.<\/p>\n

The downside risks:<\/strong> \u201cShortfalls or volatility\u201d in targeted net FDI, privatization proceeds, and portfolio inflows could see the country miss its external financing targets, Fitch says. Our current debt \/ GDP and interest \/ revenue ratios will likely remain \u201cwell above\u201d the medians for the \u201cB\u201d rating in the short term thanks to the weaker EGP and high interest rates, the report adds.<\/p>\n

Authorities should stay the course: <\/strong>The ratings agency is calling for EGP flexibility and higher interest rates to be sustained, advising policymakers not to \u201cdilute fiscal and economic reforms\u201d even if higher rates and inflation cause short-term disruption.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IMF pact, EGP flexibility get the thumbs up from Fitch: Our USD 3 bn loan agreement with the IMF and the move to a permanently flexible exchange rate regime have garnered praise in a note from Fitch Ratings. The catch: Our sovereign debt remains at risk of a downgrade if our external position continues to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":578950,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[799,7106,104,1419,72,905,272],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-578949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-credit-rating","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d8d1726f-c64d-4edd-a031-406895356ca8","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/327.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[578942],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nFitch Ratings is positive on IMF agreement, EGP float, but\u2026 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/19\/fitch-ratings-is-positive-on-imf-agreement-egp-float-but\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch Ratings is positive on IMF agreement, EGP float, but\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"IMF pact, EGP flexibility get the thumbs up from Fitch: Our USD 3 bn loan agreement with the IMF and the move to a permanently flexible exchange rate regime have garnered praise in a note from Fitch Ratings. 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The agencies attributed their affirmed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/351.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577097,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/09\/fitch-cuts-outlook-on-egypt-to-negative-affirms-b-rating\/","url_meta":{"origin":578949,"position":2},"title":"Fitch cuts outlook on Egypt to negative, affirms B+ rating","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has cut its outlook on Egyptian debt from \u201cstable\u201d to \u201cnegative\u201d due to \u201cdeterioration\u201d in the country\u2019s external liquidity position, it said yesterday. The rating agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B+ rating on robust economic growth and \u201cstrong international support\u201d from Gulf allies and multilateral partners but warned that it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/154.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586887,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/18\/fitch-downgrades-credit-ratings-of-four-local-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":578949,"position":3},"title":"Fitch downgrades credit ratings of four local banks","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The banks now have a rating of B, down from B+","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1032.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570238,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/24\/strong-fx-reserves-fiscal-reform-to-mitigate-short-term-headwinds-on-egypts-external-account-fitch-ratings\/","url_meta":{"origin":578949,"position":4},"title":"Strong FX reserves, fiscal reform to mitigate short-term headwinds on Egypt\u2019s external account -Fitch Ratings","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Strong FX reserves, fiscal reform to mitigate short-term headwinds on Egypt\u2019s external account -Fitch Ratings: Strong international reserves and the government\u2019s fiscal reforms will help to mitigate the impact of the covid-19 shock on Egypt\u2019s credit position, but the fallout will nonetheless have a significant impact on the country\u2019s GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/270.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593361,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/26\/fitch-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-with-a-stable-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":578949,"position":5},"title":"Fitch affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+ with a stable outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The agency said that Egypt\u2019s rating affirmation is supported by \u201ca recent track record of economic and fiscal reforms, and improvements to macroeconomic stability and external finances.\u201d On the flipside, Egypt\u2019s \u201cstill large fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/178.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/578949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=578949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/578949\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/578942"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/578950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=578949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=578949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=578949"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=578949"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=578949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}