{"id":578595,"date":"2023-01-05T04:03:54","date_gmt":"2023-01-05T04:03:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/05\/cbe-lets-egp-slide-as-big-two-state-owned-banks-announce-25-cds\/"},"modified":"2023-01-05T04:03:54","modified_gmt":"2023-01-05T04:03:54","slug":"cbe-lets-egp-slide-as-big-two-state-owned-banks-announce-25-cds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/05\/cbe-lets-egp-slide-as-big-two-state-owned-banks-announce-25-cds\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE lets EGP slide as Big Two state-owned banks announce 25% CDs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>The Central Bank of Egypt made a big move on the FX front yesterday, <\/strong>allowing the EGP to slide against the greenback at the same time as the nation\u2019s two largest banks announced high-yield local-currency certificates of deposit. <strong>It has three goals:<\/strong> To convince folks with hard currency deposits in the banking system to de-dollarize. To get people holding FX outside the banking system to bring it in. And to tamp down on inflation by reducing liquidity in the market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>It was a two-step yesterday morning:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>#1- Record-high yield on CDs: <\/strong>Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt \u2014 the nation\u2019s two largest banks \u2014 introduced one-year, 25% certificates of deposit (CDs) (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/BanqueMisr.1920\/posts\/pfbid02oSR78VXZ9fVAsUnwewAsJPjcZMRCxdC6MRgpU2Fo4icn5nU7SbdWcWLSPD1iuJ6Ul\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/NBE-certificate.pdf\">here<\/a>). Banque du Caire has yet to follow suit. Buyers can opt for a one-time payment of 25% when their CDs mature in 12 months' time, or can go for monthly interest payouts at a reduced 22.5% annualized rate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#2- By the end of the day, the EGP had dipped nearly 7% against the greenback to close <\/strong><strong>at 26.49<\/strong>, according to the central bank\u2019s website. That\u2019s the EGP\u2019s biggest single-day drop since last October\u2019s devaluation, which the CBE said at the time marked its move to a \u201cdurably flexible\u201d exchange rate. The EGP has now fallen by over 34% against the greenback from the rate before the October deval and is down by almost 70% from its 15.78 \/ USD level immediately before the devaluation in March 2022.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El Etreby was lead messenger on the day\u2019s events<\/strong>, speaking with everyone from CNBC Arabia (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbcarabia.com\/105120\/2023\/01\/04\/\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633-\u0645\u062c\u0644\u0633-\u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629-\u0628\u0646\u0643-\u0645\u0635\u0631-\u0644\u0640-CNBC-\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629:-\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639-\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631-\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629-\u0633\u0627\u0647\u0645-\u0641\u064a-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0637\u0627\u0628-\u0627\u0644\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0626\u0639-\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629\">watch, runtime: 9:56<\/a>) to Masaa DMC (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=uqEYhpg15hs\">watch, runtime: 10:54<\/a>) and Yahduth Fi Masr (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ScLKm3C-y00\">watch, runtime: 11:09<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><strong>It\u2019s about de-dollarization\u2026 <\/strong>\u201cThe move widens the gap between the return on foreign currencies such as the USD and the EUR, both at less than 5%, and the return on the EGP [CDs] of 25%, <strong>giving the local currency a 20% edge<\/strong>,\u201d El Etreby said (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=uqEYhpg15hs\">watch, runtime: 10:54<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2026and tamping down inflation: <\/strong>With the prevailing notion that in a high-inflation environment, EGP is best spent on assets that \u2018hold their value,\u2019 the new CDs will be \u201cone of the triggers that will drive down inflation,\u201d El Etreby said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>High-yield CDs worked before<\/strong>, El Etreby said: \u201cWe devised CDs with a 20% return back in 2017 to curb inflation that had skyrocketed to more than 31%. [Those CDs] helped bring down inflation to 5-6%.\u201d He expects the 25% certificates to have the same impact this time around, telling CNBC in a separate interview that the CDs are part of a wider strategy to bring inflation back down to single digits. Inflation hit a five-year high of 18.7% in November.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Get \u2018em while you can: <\/strong>There\u2019s no fixed date for when the CDs will be taken off the market, El Etreby said. \u201cThey could close in a week, two, three \u2014 the period still hasn\u2019t been set,\u201d he said, adding that he expected the CDs would be bought both by people who are currently holding savings in foreign currencies as well as folks who are sitting on EGP savings.<\/p>\n<p><strong>STRONG APPETITE FOR CDs?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Analysts expect savers to pile into the CDs:<\/strong> \u201cThe new CDs will increase the attractiveness of the EGP as a saving instrument and reduce dollarization,\u201d HC Securities banking and macro analyst Heba Monir told Enterprise. Market watcher Hany Aboul Fotouh agrees, telling us that savers have been \u201cwaiting\u201d for high-yield instruments, which will likely encourage some to sell off their FX holdings to invest in the EGP-denominated CDs. Aboul Fotouh also anticipates the CDs will spur higher remittances from Egyptians living abroad.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tempting returns: <\/strong>\u201cBased on our inflation expectation of 15.4% for 2023, we estimate the 25% CDs will offer a positive real return of 9.57%,\u201d Monir said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AND WHAT ABOUT THE EGP?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Float or devaluation? <\/strong>\u201cThis is certainly another devaluation,\u201d Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Chief Economist Monica Malik is quoted as telling Bloomberg. Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic analysis at EFG Hermes, told the Financial Times that we\u2019ll have to wait and see whether this means we have shifted to what the International Monetary Fund called a \u201ctruly floating\u201d rate. \u201cTo judge, we need to monitor the level at which the currency will eventually stabilize, the extent to which this will lead to improved foreign currency liquidity in banks and if we will see more volatility in the EGP going forward,\u201d he\u2019s quoted as saying.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Allowing the EGP to slide is part of a wider policy plan<\/strong> that includes the recent rate hikes and the CBE\u2019s decision to scrap requirements for importers to secure letters of credit, Al Ahly Pharos economist Esraa Ahmed told Enterprise. \u201cThis package of decisions was necessary to clamp down on the parallel market and jumpstart economic activity \u2014 which wouldn\u2019t happen with just one of these moves in isolation,\u201d Ahmed said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We\u2019ll know more as the backlog at ports clears \u2014 and there\u2019s been progress on<\/strong><strong> that front:<\/strong> The value of backlogged imports cleared from our ports since 1 December stood at more than USD 6.8 bn as of yesterday, according to a cabinet <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EgyptianCabinet\/posts\/pfbid0sJJFMBdhjqMPkYq1hMndJax5nTSFmp2oSzFjxt4UP3ezbCee9TmYdmJZ5HpSd28Vl\">statement<\/a>, up from some USD 6 bn at the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d041e1e1-1f9c-4271-8391-d6c3b10e965f\">start of this week<\/a>. The statement didn\u2019t disclose how much remains stuck in ports, though the government last week pegged the value at USD 9.5 bn as of 25 December.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BACKGROUND-<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>#1- Currency flexibility was among key demands from the IMF<\/strong> in return for our <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/afternoons\/pm-taweem-3-0-sees-egp-at-23-03-against-the-greenback\/\">USD 3<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/afternoons\/pm-taweem-3-0-sees-egp-at-23-03-against-the-greenback\/\">bn loan<\/a>. The IMF said <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/1719f1e8-80c8-4aa6-88cd-7b5b924bf865\">last month<\/a>that it will be looking for \u201cdaily volatility in the exchange rate that is similar to the volatility observed in truly floating exchange rate regimes\u201d following the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/afternoons\/pm-taweem-3-0-sees-egp-at-23-03-against-the-greenback\/\">Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) scrapping of import restrictions<\/a>.The central bank <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d041e1e1-1f9c-4271-8391-d6c3b10e965f\">lifted last week<\/a> the requirement to use letters of credit to finance imports in an effort to clear a longstanding backlog of imports, reversing a decision taken in February to help conserve foreign currency following large outflows triggered by the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#2- <\/strong><strong>NBE and Banque Misr previously <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d34fde27-bb5d-4393-8c4d-b149d636663d\">introduced<\/a><\/strong><strong> one-year, 18% CDs last year<\/strong> on the back of the EGP devaluation in March, but stopped selling the certificates <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ccbb6a41-06c6-4816-af30-0782f8606acd\">months later<\/a>, citing the high cost. The CDs, which were designed to pull liquidity into the banking system, pulled in EGP 750 bn over the course of 10 weeks. NBE, Banque Misr and Banque du Caire also brought to market three-year, 17.25% certificates of deposit in tandem with the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/60dc5b0c-8c51-4c61-aa04-54e46a86a7c6\">October devaluation<\/a>, when the central bank moved to a \u201cdurably flexible\u201d exchange rate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#3- <\/strong><strong>The new CDs come on the back of the central bank\u2019s <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b3b7b9a2-2fe4-419d-a713-f9655e5f5a22\">jumbo interest rate hike<\/a><\/strong><strong> late last month. <\/strong>The CBE raised interest rates by 300 bps at the end of December under efforts to crack down on rising inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiked the overnight deposit rate to 16.25%, the overnight lending rate to 17.25%, while the main operation and disc. rates were raised to 16.75%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>INTERNATIONAL REAX-<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-01-04\/egypt-s-pound-heads-for-biggest-drop-since-october-devaluation?srnd=premium-middle-east\">Bloomberg<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/currencies\/egypts-currency-weakens-2590-dollar-2023-01-04\/\">Reuters<\/a>, the<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b5d45d6d-4b69-4fe1-89d5-36d1a591b32d\">Financial Times<\/a>, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/egyptian-pound-sees-largest-single-day-fall-since-imf-deal\/2023\/01\/04\/0dea2d50-8c50-11ed-b86a-2e3a77336b8e_story.html\">Washington Post<\/a> all have coverage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Central Bank of Egypt made a big move on the FX front yesterday, allowing the EGP to slide against the greenback at the same time as the nation\u2019s two largest banks announced high-yield local-currency certificates of deposit. It has three goals: To convince folks with hard currency deposits in the banking system to de-dollarize. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":578596,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[576,271,104,72,272,248,6499],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-578595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-banque-misr","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","tag-national-bank-of-egypt","tag-usd-egp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"925e4b4b-5b42-4247-9c68-4a8084d7f8a1","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/86.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[578590],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CBE lets EGP slide as Big Two state-owned banks announce 25% CDs - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/05\/cbe-lets-egp-slide-as-big-two-state-owned-banks-announce-25-cds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CBE lets EGP slide as Big Two state-owned banks announce 25% CDs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt made a big move on the FX front yesterday, allowing the EGP to slide against the greenback at the same time as the nation\u2019s two largest banks announced high-yield local-currency certificates of deposit. It has three goals: To convince folks with hard currency deposits in the banking system to de-dollarize. 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It has three goals: To convince folks with hard currency deposits in the banking system to de-dollarize. 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2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The state banks will begin offering two three-year certificates offering 7% and 9% annual rates from today","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1038.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578632,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/newly-introduced-25-cds-see-massive-demand-in-first-two-days-big-two-bag-usd-700-mn-facility\/","url_meta":{"origin":578595,"position":1},"title":"Newly introduced 25% CDs see massive demand in first two days + Big Two bag USD 700 mn facility","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The newly released 25% certificates of deposit have raked in almost EGP 100 bn in a matter of days \u2014 and the two state banks offering them have reportedly secured a major loan to meet local demand for hard currency.Savers poured nearly EGP 100 bn into newly introduced record-high yield\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579118,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/25\/its-sayonara-to-high-yield-cds-at-the-end-of-the-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":578595,"position":2},"title":"It\u2019s sayonara to high-yield CDs at the end of the month","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt are pulling their one-year, 25% certificates of deposit after the end of January, according to emailed statements from the two banks. The high-yield savings products were introduced to the market on 4 January ahead of the EGP devaluation to help curb inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/444.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546847,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/31\/bye-bye-18-certificates-of-deposit\/","url_meta":{"origin":578595,"position":3},"title":"Bye-bye, 18% certificates of deposit\u2026","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"NBE, Banque Misr suspend sales of 18% CDs: State-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr will no longer be selling one-year, 18% certificates of deposit (CDs) introduced after the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s devalued the EGP on 22 March, according to a statement (pdf) from Banque Misr and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/410.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574784,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/22\/nbe-banque-misr-scrap-high-interest-savings-certificates\/","url_meta":{"origin":578595,"position":4},"title":"NBE, Banque Misr scrap high-interest savings certificates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"NBE, Banque Misr scrap high-interest CDs: State-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr have stopped offering 15% fixed-rate savings certificates launched in mid-March, the institutions told the local press (here and here). The banks started selling the high-interest certificates in March to protect savers and ease pressure on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/234.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570846,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/16\/national-bank-of-egypt-banque-misr-sell-egp-82-bn-of-high-yield-certificates\/","url_meta":{"origin":578595,"position":5},"title":"National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr sell EGP 82 bn of high-yield certificates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"State banks sell EGP 82 bn of high-interest savings certificates: National Bank of Egypt has sold EGP 56 bn of its 15% fixed-rate certificates, including EGP 4 bn in one day, Deputy Chairman Yehya Aboul Fotouh tells Masrawy. 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