{"id":578362,"date":"2022-12-26T04:08:16","date_gmt":"2022-12-26T04:08:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/26\/2022-brought-a-trifecta-of-headwinds\/"},"modified":"2022-12-26T04:08:16","modified_gmt":"2022-12-26T04:08:16","slug":"2022-brought-a-trifecta-of-headwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/26\/2022-brought-a-trifecta-of-headwinds\/","title":{"rendered":"2022 brought a trifecta of headwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Well, at least 2021 wasn\u2019t that bad:<\/strong> The decade has (so far) been the exact opposite of the roaring 20s we were hoping for three years ago, and the prospects for a near-term return to the pre-2020 era of relative sunshine and rainbows aren\u2019t looking great. The global economy continued to grapple with covid-19, while Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine and the fight against inflation also wreaked havoc \u2014 and had significant knock-on effects here at home.<\/p>\n

An economic war:<\/strong> Moscow\u2019s decision to invade Ukraine on 24 February sparked chaos in global commodities markets and further amplified supply-driven inflationary pressures around the world. Any serious disruption to Russia\u2019s economy, one of the world\u2019s largest commodity exporters, was going to reverberate around the world. But the impact was an order of magnitude greater when Western nations put together the most stringent set of sanctions ever assembled in a bid to cut the Russian economy off from the rest of the world. Over a series of packages, the US and Europe escalated sanctions targeting the country\u2019s financial system, banning imports of commodities, and restricting its shipping industry. The result was oil prices soaring towards USD 140 a barrel<\/a> and such volatility in the metals markets that it broke the London Metals Exchange<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Food insecurity:<\/strong> The war also precipitated a food supply crisis when, from late February, deliveries of wheat from the world\u2019s two largest suppliers stopped making it to the market. Moscow\u2019s blockade of Ukraine\u2019s Black Sea ports<\/a> together with Western financial sanctions<\/a> kept Ukrainian and Russian grain out of reach for many. Making matters worse, sanctions impacting the export of Russian fertilizers<\/a> helped drive prices to record highs<\/a> and cut global supply, making it harder for farmers across Africa and Asia to maintain agricultural production. This drove food prices to record highs, triggering food protectionist<\/a> measures by some key exporters, and raising fears of a global hunger crisis. Global markets began turning a corner in July, when Turkey helped broker a wheat pact<\/a> between Russia and Ukraine to resume grain exports through the Black Sea \u2014 although Moscow briefly bailed<\/a> on the agreement, only to later extend it<\/a> beyond its original 19 November expiration date.<\/p>\n

Egypt was particularly exposed to the shock, as the world\u2019s largest importer of wheat<\/strong> \u2014 with some 80% of its imports traditionally coming from Russia and Ukraine. Soaring global wheat prices led state grain buyer GASC to cancel more than one<\/a> international tender over the course of the year, while availability of the grain came under yet more pressure as shipments destined for the private sector remained stuck at ports amid our FX shortage. This led GASC to start selling wheat<\/a> to private mills and bakeries<\/a>, as well as flour to private pasta makers. Meanwhile, the government significantly ramped up its basic commodity storage capacity \u2014 including tapping our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities, Orascom Construction, and Samcrete for EGP 4 bn in contracts to build four warehouses for grain and other basic commodity storage.<\/p>\n

But it wasn\u2019t just wheat:<\/strong> Russia and Ukraine also accounted for the majority<\/a> of our sunflower oil imports. We\u2019re also a net oil importer, leaving us vulnerable to the price squeeze that began as a result of a demand-supply imbalance during the post-pandemic recovery and has been exacerbated by the war, which has seen Europe pledge to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

Cue a whole year centered on fighting inflation:<\/strong> As 2021 was drawing to a close, it was becoming clear that the wave of inflation sweeping the globe wasn\u2019t just a momentary aberration in a four-decade run of price stability, but a serious threat to the global economy.<\/p>\n

By the end of 2021, prices in the US were growing at their fastest rate since the 1980s while several key emerging economies had begun to raise interest rates in a bid to cool prices. Whether central bankers could do much to tackle inflation caused by far-flung supply-side factors was an open question.<\/p>\n

Here at home, inflation was a major pressure point for policy makers and the private<\/strong> sector:<\/strong> Inflation hit a five-year high of 18.7% in November<\/a> as the Central Bank of Egypt, under new leadership<\/a>, took the decision to float the EGP in late October<\/a>, hitting food and beverage prices. In a bid to tamp down inflation, the central bank has enacted 800 bps of interest rate hikes throughout the year (more on that in Economy, above). Soaring costs have weighed heavily on non-oil private sector activity, which remained in contraction territory<\/a> for the entirety of 2022.<\/p>\n

The end of easy money:<\/strong> The Federal Reserve led the fastest wave of global monetary tightening seen in decades, raising interest rates by 75 bps on four separate occasions, driving them to their highest since late 2007 in a bid to kill demand.<\/p>\n

So long to our carry trade:<\/strong> Egypt \u2014 once touted as one of the most attractive carry trades in the world \u2014 saw large outflows this year<\/a> as rising interest rates around the world and soaring inflation triggered a global risk-off and sent Egypt\u2019s real interest rate into negative territory. The exodus led the government to stress the importance<\/a> of prioritizing foreign direct investment and export growth over hot money \u2014 a policy shift we very much support<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, covid isn\u2019t fully gone (even if it\u2019s long-forgotten in Egypt):<\/strong> China has continued to struggle with covid-19, as Beijing\u2019s quest to completely shut the coronavirus out from the country began to take its toll on the economy. Authorities put some of the country\u2019s biggest and most economically-important cities \u2014 such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen \u2014 being placed into total lockdown for weeks, putting more pressure on global supply chains. The Chinese government then made an abrupt u-turn on their uncompromising approach to the virus in December, seemingly in response to an outbreak of protests<\/a> against another round of lockdowns in November. But rather than serving as the silver bullet for the country\u2019s problems, the hasty backtrack has left China grappling with what much of the rest of the world faced back in the winter of 2020: Surging cases and hospitalizations, shortages of medical supplies, and supply chain disruptions<\/a> caused by labor shortages.<\/p>\n

None of this was good news for the economic outlook:<\/strong> In its series of economic forecasts throughout the year, the IMF sounded progressively more downbeat about the prospects for the global economy. After predicting last October that the global economy would grow 4.9%<\/a> this year, one year later the Fund\u2019s tone was noticeably more pessimistic. \u201cThe worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,\u201d its chief economist wrote<\/a> in its October 2022 outlook, which projects 3.2% growth this year and 2.7% in 2023. By 4Q, investment bank analysts were projecting rising rates to tip the US into recession in 2023, and the eurozone economy to contract due to Europe\u2019s energy crisis.<\/p>\n

On that note, the World Bank is forecasting a slowdown in Egypt\u2019s economic growth<\/strong> this fiscal year to 4.5%, down from 6.6% in FY 2021-2022, according to a recent report (<\/a>pdf<\/a>)<\/a>. The multilateral lender expects growth to slowly edge upwards, promoting stabilization and structural reform, allowing the debt-to-GDP to resume a downward trajectory over the medium-term with continued fiscal consolidation, the report says.<\/p>\n

Or the markets: <\/strong>The global stock and bond markets have suffered one of the worst years on record due to tightening financial conditions. Some USD 14 tn<\/a> of value has been wiped from equity benchmarks around the world while rising yields triggered an historic sell-off<\/a> in global bonds. The IPO market \u2014 particularly for SPACs, the poster child for 2020 excess \u2014 has been almost non-existent, while bond issuance volumes have slumped amid the volatility.<\/p>\n

Emerging and frontier markets were among the biggest victims of the turmoil<\/strong> as foreign investors pulled bns of USD from riskier assets and the greenback went from strength to strength, exacerbating pre-existing debt problems across low-income nations. In May, Sri Lanka defaulted on its debts for the first time in its history, while bonds of a record number of nations were trading at distressed levels<\/a> during the summer.<\/p>\n

The Gulf has been a totally different story:<\/strong> Buoyed by higher oil prices, 2022 was boom time for financial markets in the Gulf, where companies rushed to float in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Riyadh. GCC exchanges recorded their busiest year for new listings ever, seeing 27 primary share sales<\/a> raising USD 14.5 bn. Meanwhile the region\u2019s sovereign wealth funds, awash with petrodollars, have flexed their financial muscles on a level not seen anywhere else in the world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Well, at least 2021 wasn\u2019t that bad: The decade has (so far) been the exact opposite of the roaring 20s we were hoping for three years ago, and the prospects for a near-term return to the pre-2020 era of relative sunshine and rainbows aren\u2019t looking great. The global economy continued to grapple with covid-19, while […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":578363,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8971],"tags":[317,104,115,72,182,349,1095,3135],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-578362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-year-in-review-macro-2","tag-commodities","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-year-in-review-macro","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e011f1da-5cee-4ca4-9354-81b5c1b7f4dd","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/521.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[578346],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\n2022 brought a trifecta of headwinds - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/26\/2022-brought-a-trifecta-of-headwinds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022 brought a trifecta of headwinds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Well, at least 2021 wasn\u2019t that bad: The decade has (so far) been the exact opposite of the roaring 20s we were hoping for three years ago, and the prospects for a near-term return to the pre-2020 era of relative sunshine and rainbows aren\u2019t looking great. 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With the pandemic in its third year, the post-covid recovery has been the primary focus for the global economy, but developing countries and emerging markets are facing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/434.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546301,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/11\/urban-inflation-hits-13-1-in-april-amid-global-commodities-spiral\/","url_meta":{"origin":578362,"position":1},"title":"Urban inflation hits 13.1% in April amid global commodities spiral","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a near three-year high in April as rising food costs and the devaluation of the EGP in March caused consumer prices to grow at a faster pace. Annual urban inflation jumped to 13.1% last month from 10.5% in March, according to figures (pdf) released by statistics agency\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/136.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":580604,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/what-will-impact-emerging-markets-in-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":578362,"position":2},"title":"What will impact emerging markets in 2023?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Last year was a tough one for emerging markets. What will 2023 bring? Emerging markets had a rough ride last year. Aggressive monetary tightening led by the US Federal Reserve combined with inflation and commodities shocks to bring currency woes, losses in stocks and bonds, and even debt defaults for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/620.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":551126,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/26\/everyone-is-really-concerned-about-the-global-economy-right-now\/","url_meta":{"origin":578362,"position":3},"title":"Everyone is really concerned about the global economy right now","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Everyone is really concerned about inflation right now: Inflation is the number one concern gripping the world right now as the commodity price shock and supply chain disruptions cause the biggest spike in the cost of living in decades, according to Ipsos\u2019 latest What Worries The World report (pdf). A\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/540.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544522,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/08\/unsubsidized-bread-in-egypt-is-getting-pricier-as-russias-war-roils-the-wheat-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":578362,"position":4},"title":"Unsubsidized bread in Egypt is getting pricier as Russia\u2019s war roils the wheat markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The price of unsubsidized bread in the Greater Cairo area has risen by as much as 50% in the course of a week as global wheat prices soar following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. A pack of five balady loaves can now cost EGP 7.50 in Cairo, up from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/89.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545748,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/11\/inflation-rises-to-near-three-year-high-as-global-food-prices-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":578362,"position":5},"title":"Inflation rises to near three-year high as global food prices spike","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose to its highest level in almost three years in March as spillover effects from the conflict in Ukraine continued to hit the Egyptian economy. Figures (pdf) released by statistics agency Capmas yesterday showed that inflation accelerated to 10.5% last month from 8.8% in February, above the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/194.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/578362","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=578362"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/578362\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/578346"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/578363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=578362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=578362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=578362"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=578362"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=578362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}