{"id":577486,"date":"2022-11-24T04:03:31","date_gmt":"2022-11-24T04:03:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/24\/egp-most-vulnerable-em-currency-says-nomura\/"},"modified":"2022-11-24T04:03:31","modified_gmt":"2022-11-24T04:03:31","slug":"egp-most-vulnerable-em-currency-says-nomura","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/24\/egp-most-vulnerable-em-currency-says-nomura\/","title":{"rendered":"EGP most vulnerable EM currency, says Nomura"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The EGP might not be out of the woods yet:<\/strong> Japanese bank Nomura<\/a> thinks that Egypt is the most vulnerable emerging-market country to a currency crisis over the next 12 months, according to a report<\/a>. Egypt is ranked highest of the 32 EM nations included on the bank\u2019s Damocles Index, indicating a strong chance that the country will suffer an exchange-rate crisis in the coming months.<\/p>\n

The sword:<\/strong> Nomura describes its Damocles Index as an \u201cearly warning model of EM exchange rate crises.\u201d It uses eight indicators \u2014 focusing on FX reserves, debt levels, the exchange rate and capital inflows \u2014 to produce a score. Anything over 100 signifies a 64% chance that the will experience an exchange rate crisis in the following 12 months, the bank says.<\/p>\n

Egypt is currently significantly higher than that:<\/strong> Nomura gave Egypt a score of 165 in the latest index, joining six other countries on the bank\u2019s most-vulnerable list, among which are Romania (145), Sri Lanka (138),Turkey (138) and Pakistan (120). \u201cThough the currencies of Egypt, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Pakistan have depreciated sharply in the last 12 months, Damocles indicates that they are not yet out of the woods due to their still-weak economic fundamentals including high inflation,\u201d the bank wrote.<\/p>\n

The EGP has already seen a significant drop in value this year:<\/strong> The EGP has fallen to a record low against the USD this year as tightening financial conditions and spillover effects from the war in Ukraine hit Egypt\u2019s external position. The currency has been one of the world\u2019s worst-performing currencies, tumbling 56% against the USD since March after the central bank twice devalued the currency. Since the central bank announced a floating exchange rate<\/a> at the end of October, the currency has fallen 24.5% and has continued to gradually slide through November.<\/p>\n

The float, together with the reassurance of a new IMF program, has begun to bring <\/strong>foreign currency back into the country<\/strong> \u2014 at least into the stock market, which has surged almost 20% since the central bank\u2019s announcement last month. Data released in the coming months will give us an idea of the impact on the local bond market and the current account.<\/p>\n

The Damocles Index doesn\u2019t paint a good picture for EM:<\/strong> Most countries listed on the index saw their currency risks rise, with the aggregate score rising sharply to 2,234 from 1,744 in the previous update in May. \u201cThis is the highest aggregate score since July 1999 and is not too far from the peak of 2,692 during the height of the Asian crisis, an ominous warning sign of the growing broad-based risk in EM currencies,\u201d the bank wrote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The EGP might not be out of the woods yet: Japanese bank Nomura thinks that Egypt is the most vulnerable emerging-market country to a currency crisis over the next 12 months, according to a report. Egypt is ranked highest of the 32 EM nations included on the bank\u2019s Damocles Index, indicating a strong chance that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":577487,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[380,104,1419,115,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-577486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-currencies","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dbafe8e6-b914-497d-b88f-e99a9fc7c521","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/383.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[577477],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEGP most vulnerable EM currency, says Nomura - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/24\/egp-most-vulnerable-em-currency-says-nomura\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EGP most vulnerable EM currency, says Nomura\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The EGP might not be out of the woods yet: Japanese bank Nomura thinks that Egypt is the most vulnerable emerging-market country to a currency crisis over the next 12 months, according to a report. 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Egypt is one of seven countries that face the risk of a foreign currency crisis, Bloomberg says, citing recent research from the by Japan\u2019s Nomura Holdings. 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Emerging market central banks are indirectly intervening in currency markets to contain inflation, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agust\u00edn Carstens said in a speech earlier this month at the London School of Economics.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/4\/EGP-USD-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578990,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/22\/higher-yields-a-weaker-egp-have-foreign-investors-looking-at-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":577486,"position":2},"title":"Higher yields + a weaker EGP have foreign investors looking at Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Higher yields + weaker EGP could bring foreign investors back to the market: Foreign investors who sold out of Egypt last year are once again looking at Egypt\u2019s debt market on the back of a cheaper EGP and record yield, Bloomberg writes. The spread between most EGP treasury bills and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/355.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575211,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/06\/enterprise-explains-the-carry-trade\/","url_meta":{"origin":577486,"position":3},"title":"Enterprise Explains: The carry trade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Enterprise Explains: The carry trade: Much has been made recently about the return of the carry trade to Egypt, long an appealing source of high returns for foreign investors and an important source of hard currency. It showed resilience in the face of the economic fallout from covid-19, and rebounded\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise explains"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise explains","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/enterprise-explains\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589172,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/22\/another-deval-not-the-right-way-forward-says-deutsche-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":577486,"position":4},"title":"Another deval \u201cnot the right way forward,\u201d says Deutsche Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Further currency weakness likely to impact debt sustainability, analysts say","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572966,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/15\/egyptian-banks-fx-liquidity-still-vulnerable-as-recovery-from-covid-19-sell-off-will-take-longer-than-2018-em-zombie-apocalypse-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":577486,"position":5},"title":"Egyptian banks\u2019 FX liquidity \u201cstill vulnerable\u201d as recovery from covid-19 sell-off will take longer than 2018 EM Zombie Apocalypse -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egyptian banks\u2019 FX liquidity \u201cstill vulnerable\u201d \u2014 it\u2019s going to take longer to recover from the covid-19 sell-off than from the 2018 EM Zombie Apocalypse -Fitch: The capital outflows Egypt sustained over the past several months as a result of the fallout from the covid-19 pandemic was \u201cmore severe\u201d and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/112.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/577486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=577486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/577486\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/577477"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/577487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=577486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=577486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=577486"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=577486"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=577486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}