{"id":576399,"date":"2020-11-23T03:38:09","date_gmt":"2020-11-23T03:38:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/"},"modified":"2020-11-23T03:38:09","modified_gmt":"2020-11-23T03:38:09","slug":"rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM inflows gaining momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-04\"><\/a> <strong>RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM portfolio inflows gaining momentum:<\/strong> The benefits Egypt is reaping from its fiscal reform program \u2014 including turning a primary budget surplus and engaging the IMF \u2014 are keeping Renaissance Capital bullish on the economy, the investment bank said in a report last week. RenCap also sees an improving debt-to-GDP ratio on the horizon as the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) continues enacting rate cuts next year. \u201cMoreover, we think the education \/ electricity fundamentals are in place to help Egypt accelerate GDP growth,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Egypt\u2019s economic outlook, by the numbers:<\/strong> RenCap expects real GDP growth to clock in at 3.5% at the end of the calendar year and dipping to 2.8% in 2021 before roaring back to 5.0% in 2022. RenCap doesn\u2019t appear to expect another rate cut when the CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets for the last time this year in December, saying in the report that we will close out the year with interest rates where they are. We should, however, expect rates to be cut by 150 bps in 2021 and remain at around 7-8% through 2022. Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to dip marginally to 5.5% in 2021 from 5.6% at the end of this year. Unemployment is also expected to tick up over the next two years, holding steady at 9.7%, the report suggests.<\/p>\n<p><strong>As for emerging and frontier markets, expect the incoming Biden administration to bring good things \u2014 and a weaker USD:<\/strong> The Trump administration encouraged US companies to bring their businesses back home \u2014 reversing FDI flows that had gone towards emerging and frontier markets \u2014 by offering tax incentives and creating trade tensions that made it risky for companies to take their business offshore. The general expectation is that <strong>president-elect Joe Biden will de-escalate many of these tensions and help drive FDI back to EM and FM in 2022<\/strong>. \u201cWe think this will contribute to EM FX strength, helping suppress inflation and interest rates and encourage more bank lending and investment. Faster growth will result, attracting more money to EM\u201d and weakening the USD, the report says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The weakening USD will also be driven by portfolio flows, particularly with low yields on developing market debt.<\/strong> \u201cThis is partly explained by the demographic induced savings glut and because with high DM debt ratios, any rise in [US Treasury] yields would risk sending economies back into recession (thereby reducing yields).\u201d Emerging markets will likely attract portfolio investments in FX and local currency debt, reversing the massive outflows they sustained earlier this year as the pandemic took hold.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What about that \u201cwall of debt\u201d EM and FM are supposed to be concerned about?<\/strong> RenCap says that debt is actually not a concern for emerging and frontier markets and that, if anything, <strong>\u201cgovernments should borrow like they have never borrowed before\u201d in the coming decade.<\/strong> The investment bank expects to see interest rates in these markets falling, while debt servicing costs may not rise even if debt-to-GDP ratios rise more than previously seen. \u201cWhile Egypt or India do have high debt, it is mostly in local currency and mostly financed by locals,\u201d meaning their external debt is not \u201cworrisome.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM portfolio inflows gaining momentum: The benefits Egypt is reaping from its fiscal reform program \u2014 including turning a primary budget surplus and engaging the IMF \u2014 are keeping Renaissance Capital bullish on the economy, the investment bank said in a report last week. RenCap also sees an improving debt-to-GDP [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":576400,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[115,72,3664,1982,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-576399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-frontier-markets","tag-renaissance-capital","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8c2facb0-b5e1-42dd-aafc-6804b7f7bc76","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"6a034151-6cf1-45e9-b04c-516afeba12ee","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/238.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[576391],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM inflows gaining momentum - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM inflows gaining momentum\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM portfolio inflows gaining momentum: The benefits Egypt is reaping from its fiscal reform program \u2014 including turning a primary budget surplus and engaging the IMF \u2014 are keeping Renaissance Capital bullish on the economy, the investment bank said in a report last week. RenCap also sees an improving debt-to-GDP [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-11-23T03:38:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/238.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM inflows gaining momentum\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-11-23T03:38:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/\"},\"wordCount\":524,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/238.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"emerging markets\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"frontier markets\",\"Renaissance Capital\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/\",\"name\":\"RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM inflows gaining momentum - 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Robertson remains bullish on Egypt following an investor trip to Cairo as he believes the government has shown zeal in implementing reforms and it is being supported by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":637575,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/11\/20\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-calls-it-a-very-interesting-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":576399,"position":1},"title":"RenCap bullish on Egypt, calls it a \u201cvery interesting market\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 November 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Renaissance Capital has a pipeline of investment banking transactions in Cairo, Ksenia Galouchko writes for Bloomberg. \u201cA lot of the global investment banks are de-risking their portfolios, they\u2019re scaling back in Africa and none of them are entering Egypt \u2026 Egypt is a very interesting market for us,\u201d RenCap\u2019s global\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":631385,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/03\/18\/rencap-seeking-partners-for-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":576399,"position":2},"title":"RenCap seeking partners for growth","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 March 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Frontier markets specialist Renaissance Capital could look to broaden its shareholder base as it plans to expand into new markets such as Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg reports. \u201cJoining forces with a partner is one of the possible scenarios,\u201d Chairman Christophe Charlier says. \u201cNothing is imminent,\u201d he explained, but a partnership with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":647136,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/05\/03\/egypt-ticks-many-boxes-rencap\/","url_meta":{"origin":576399,"position":3},"title":"Egypt ticks many boxes -RenCap","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 May 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"There are three key takeaways from the Egypt Investor Conference in Cape Town last week, Renaissance Capital says. Corporates have welcomed the float of the EGP despite its negative short-term impact on volumes and margins; wages have been adjusted equitably;and \u201cenergy subsidy reform is under way, gas supply is improving\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568839,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/05\/egp-overvaluation-to-surpass-20-in-the-coming-two-years-rencap\/","url_meta":{"origin":576399,"position":4},"title":"EGP overvaluation to surpass 20% in the coming two years -RenCap","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EGP overvaluation to surpass 20% in the coming two years -RenCap: Renaissance Capital has become \u201cmore bullish\u201d on the trajectory of the EGP over the coming two years, forecasting the currency to remain stable this year before falling to EGP 16.2 against the greenback during 2021. In a report issued\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/70.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567510,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/26\/rencap-sees-egypt-morocco-leading-industrialization-based-growth-in-mena\/","url_meta":{"origin":576399,"position":5},"title":"RenCap sees Egypt, Morocco leading industrialization-based growth in MENA","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"RenCap sees Egypt, Morocco leading industrialization-based growth in MENA: Egypt and Morocco are seeing \u201cpromising changes\u201d that should help improve the overall picture for MENA countries\u2019 economic competitiveness, Renaissance Capital Chairman Christopher Charlier said at RenCap\u2019s annual MENA Investors Conference, according to an emailed statement (pdf). Morocco is expected to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/576399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=576399"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/576399\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/576391"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/576400"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=576399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=576399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=576399"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=576399"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=576399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}