{"id":576134,"date":"2020-11-11T04:06:44","date_gmt":"2020-11-11T04:06:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/11\/inflation-hits-four-month-high-in-october\/"},"modified":"2020-11-11T04:06:44","modified_gmt":"2020-11-11T04:06:44","slug":"inflation-hits-four-month-high-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/11\/inflation-hits-four-month-high-in-october\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation hits four-month high in October"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Annual headline inflation accelerated to 4.6% in October from <\/strong>3.7% in<\/a><\/strong>September<\/a><\/strong>, according to Capmas figures (pdf)<\/a> released yesterday. October\u2019s inflation figure is the highest since July\u2019s 4.2%. Reuters<\/a> and Bloomberg<\/a> also had the story.<\/p>\n

The delayed start to the academic year was the main driver<\/strong>, with the prices of educational services seeing a 29.7% m-o-m increase and the price of a high school education rising 55.6% m-o-m. The annual 1% increase seen during the back-to-school season<\/a> shifted to October this year as the pandemic forced the academic year to begin a month later. School-related supplies also drove up inflation, with books and stationery supplies increasing 4.2% on a monthly basis.<\/p>\n

The uptick in education price increases outpaced the 0.8% y-o-y decline in food and beverage prices<\/strong>, which are typically responsible for driving the headline rate in Egypt.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation<\/strong> \u2014 which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel \u2014 rose to 3.9% from 3.3% in September, according to central bank figures (pdf)<\/a>. On a monthly basis, the core rate increased to 1.7% from 0.1% in September<\/p>\n

Will we close out the year with inflation within the central bank\u2019s target range?<\/strong> It\u2019s unlikely, but we\u2019ll probably get close, Pharos Holding and Beltone Financial said in research notes yesterday. \u201cWe expect inflation to pick up again around 5-5.8% y-o-y during the last two months of 2020<\/strong>, despite a weak monthly growth in prices, as both these months had monthly price declines last year which created an unfavorable base effect,\u201d Pharos analyst Sandy Eskaros wrote in a note. Average inflation for the year will likely come in at 5%, which is slightly below the lower end of the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s 6-12% target range, she said. Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh also expects inflation to \u201chover closer to the lower bound\u201d of the target range by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

Reminder:<\/strong> Under the terms of USD 5.2 bn stand-by facility agreed with the IMF, authoritiesare expected to consult with IMF technical experts<\/a> should the inflation rate fall below 6% by the end of September, and with the executive board if it dips below 4%. If inflation does fall outside targets, the CBE is expected to take measures to support price growth and bring it within the target range.<\/p>\n

The outlook for tomorrow\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meeting is unchanged:<\/strong> Beltone Financial and EFG Hermes still expect a hold, while Pharos maintains its position that a small 50 bps rate cut could be in the cards. Six out of eight economists we spoke to earlier this month expect the CBE to leave interest rates unchanged<\/a>. A number of national banks have already scrapped their high interest fixed-rate savings certificates<\/a> in September, in a move that is expected to support growth and boost inflation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual headline inflation accelerated to 4.6% in October from 3.7% inSeptember, according to Capmas figures (pdf) released yesterday. October\u2019s inflation figure is the highest since July\u2019s 4.2%. Reuters and Bloomberg also had the story. The delayed start to the academic year was the main driver, with the prices of educational services seeing a 29.7% m-o-m […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":576135,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[330,271,72,182,349,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-576134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-capmas","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7ba3c0ab-cba6-4ed1-94f1-10368c5f8e54","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/115.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[576129],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nInflation hits four-month high in October - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/11\/inflation-hits-four-month-high-in-october\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation hits four-month high in October\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual headline inflation accelerated to 4.6% in October from 3.7% inSeptember, according to Capmas figures (pdf) released yesterday. 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Data shows that month-on-month inflation fell to 0.5% last month from 0.8% in March, while\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/3313.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565438,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/08\/inflation-uptick-as-ramadan-approaches\/","url_meta":{"origin":576134,"position":1},"title":"Inflation uptick as Ramadan approaches","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation accelerated slightly to 4.8% in March, up from 4.6% in February, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. Annual urban inflation stood steady to 4.5% in March. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose 0.6% m-o-m, compared to a 0.2% monthly rise in February. 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